National Assembly for Wales

I call Members to order.

The first item on our agenda this afternoon is questions to the First Minister, and the first question is from Michelle Brown.

Well, I'm pleased the Member acknowledges the improvement. I recognise there is more to do, which is why we have invested an additional £30 million this year to build on the progress made over the last two years and to reduce waiting times further by March 2019.

Thank you for that answer, First Minister. I'm sure you'd like to make that inference from my question, but, in your final speech to the Labour conference as First Minister, you made great play of saying that what you have achieved in Wales shows what Labour can do when in power. Perhaps you were caught up in your demob happiness, but you forgot to mention that, since becoming First Minister, the percentage of people waiting longer than four hours in accident and emergency has got worse, the number of newly diagnosed cancer patients starting treatment within the 30-day target has got worse, the number of urgent-route cancer patients starting treatment within the target 62 days has got worse, and the number of patients waiting longer than 26 weeks for treatment has also got worse. So, First Minister, don't you think that, rather than your record being a cause for celebration at what Labour can do for the UK, it's actually a stark warning of what Labour will do to the UK, given the opportunity?

Well, the number of people waiting over 36 weeks in July was 31 per cent lower than July of last year—52 per cent lower than the high point of August 2015. We expect continued improvement this year. The median waiting time in Wales has reduced from 10.9 weeks in September 2017 to 8.9 weeks in July of this year. We also continue to show significant improvements in diagnostic waits; performance continues to improve, even with the additional diagnostic test being reported from April 2018, with the number waiting over eight weeks at the end of July being 24 per cent lower than in July last year, and 82 per cent lower than the high of January 2014. Now, I could go on with more figures that show the improvement, but one thing I can say to her is that a Labour Government in Westminster would ensure that there are sufficient resources made available for the Welsh Government and also sufficient resources to turn around the dire performance of the NHS in England.

I'd like to just talk about the NHS in Wales—I didn't realise you were responsible for the one in England as well. Your figures do sound absolutely superb, First Minister, and I don't quarrel with the improvements, where the improvements are. However, of course, those improvements aren't universal. As you know, the £50 million that was given last year, a chunk of it had to be recouped, because health boards didn't meet the targets that they were set by the Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Services, to achieve those reductions in those key areas; another £30 million this year. How confident are you that that will be able to be spent wisely by the health boards, and how can you evidence that those who didn't spend it well last year and had to have it snatched back will be able to do something useful with it this year, to continue to make sure that reductions in waiting times, where they are seen, are universal and not just in pockets throughout Wales?

Well, that can be done through the development of the boards' three-year integrated medium-term plans. They are providing detailed capacity and demand profiles for this year, and they are required to show clear trajectories as to how they plan to continue to reduce waiting times for diagnostics and for treatment. In the longer term, of course, we do recognise the need to transform the way services are delivered, and that's why we've set up a £100 million fund to develop new ways of working.

First Minister, one of my constituents reported seeing 15 ambulances queuing outside a north Wales emergency department not long ago. This is the health board still under special measures, still under your Government's watch. That is 15 ambulances not available to help those desperately needing help elsewhere. This now seems to be the norm. What is your Government doing to address this situation in the north Wales region, and when will we finally see the impact of your special measures?

I don't know where she's talking about, and, without any more details, it's difficult to comment. What I can say to her, of course, is we've seen, month on month, sustained improvements in ambulance response times. I can tell her that, in August, there were 89,419 attendances at Welsh accident and emergency departments. That's an average of 2,884 attendances per day. The vast majority of patients continue to receive timely care. And, in August, 80 per cent of patients were admitted, transferred or discharged within four hours. There are of course times when A&E is busier than other times of year, and indeed other times in the week, but we see from the ambulance response times, and, of course, the performance in A&E, that the vast majority of people get treatment when they need it, at an appropriate time.

Well, a sustainable bus network is vital to people who live in rural communities, and we will, of course, work with our partners to fund and provide access to key services and facilities, to tackle road congestion, bus punctuality and air quality. As part of that strategy, we want to ensure that we improve the network, and there will be an opportunity over the ensuing years, because we now have the power over buses, to create legislation in order to ensure that the problems that we've seen over the years, where companies collapse and then aren't able to carry on with services, do not continue, and that we can give more assurance to people not just in rural areas but in urban areas too.

Of those using public transport, 80 per cent use buses. In rural areas, such as parts of my constituency in Arfon, there are no trains available, and the bus is the only option for people without cars to travel to work and to access crucial services. But the truth is that we need to transform bus services in rural areas, and Plaid Cymru wants to give far more power to local councils so that they can arrange appropriate services, in collaboration with local bus companies. There are some communities who have expressed a desire to have an integrated transport system, which would include using hydrogen and electric vehicles in order to fill some of the gaps in current services. So, what practical support can you as First Minister give for pilot schemes of that kind?

Well, of course, we are open to looking at bids that would come from local authorities. But one thing I would say is that it's all-important to ensure that local authorities collaborate with each other because the fact of the matter is that people don't just travel in one county; they travel from one to another. So, cross-boundary services should receive the same kind of attention as those in-county. But, of course, we wish to work with the local authorities and also the bus companies to ensure that the system is more sustainable ultimately.

There is a need, I think, to look at how rural bus services are delivered because they'll never be run commercially, of course. Now, Welsh Government and local authority operators, I believe, need to come together to form a partnership, and that partnership doesn't exist at the moment. Can Welsh Government take a leading role in forming such a partnership?

Well, one of the difficulties, of course, is that we have seen bus companies collapse and, as a result, services see a break. Quite often, of course, they are reprovided by another provider. We have seen Arriva, for example, pull out of all of Ceredigion, in effect, despite the fact they operated the bus services there and, of course, new companies did come forward. But, again, there was uncertainty and, again, there was a potential gap in service. Now, we consulted, as he will know, last year on proposals that would strengthen the arrangements for the planning and delivery of local bus services in the future and, of course, we will need to look over the next few years at how we are able to ensure a continuity of service where that service is not subsidised and where, of course, the private operator can do however they want. Now, that clearly is not a sustainable model for the future, but now that we have the powers that we've asked for for so long over the bus network, there's an exciting opportunity to craft a more integrated and sustainable network in the future. 

The advances in technology have got huge potential to improve the passenger experience and improve the viability of buses. The Welsh Government have been funding the Bwcabus project in Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire, which has used a demand-responsive model to make public transport viable in smaller routes. That sort of approach, merged with app-based technology, has got huge potential. Anybody who's booked a taxi by an app knows that you can order a time, you can know the price, you know how long it's going to take. Would the First Minister look at how that sort of technology could be applied to buses right across Wales to make public transport a viable day-to-day option for people?

Yes, I do. In many rural areas, as the Member is right to say, Bwcabus has been hugely important in terms of being able to provide public transport where otherwise none would be made available. As we see technology develop, as he rightly says, then there is the opportunity to increase flexibility, to have a better idea of where demand is at particular times of day and, of course, for people to be sure that a bus will turn up when they need that bus. It's a blurring in some ways of the distinction between a bus service and a taxi service, in some parts of Wales. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as it creates that kind of flexibility, and I think he's absolutely right to say that, with technology now, there is ample opportunity for us to extend more flexible bus services into parts of Wales that perhaps haven't seen a bus service for many, many years.

Questions now from the party leaders, and the leader of the opposition first, Paul Davies.

Diolch, Llywydd. First Minister, do you believe that Natural Resources Wales is fit for purpose?

Yes, I do.

Well, let me remind you, First Minister, that this organisation is, of course, directly accountable to your Government. It's in receipt of £180 million of public money every year, yet they are responsible for a litany of failings, which have significant costs to the public purse. In just five years since its establishment, NRW have had their annual accounts qualified for three consecutive years, and they have undersold Welsh timber without a proper tendering process, resulting in a loss of £1 million to Welsh taxpayers. The public are calling for heads to roll. We need accountability. Has anyone at NRW actually been sacked for these failings?

Well, he will know, of course, that the chair has gone, and the next step will be to appoint a new chair. He will know that there is a new chief executive, who has replaced somebody with huge experience, particularly as part of the court service, and it has been to do particularly with the issue of timber contracts, for which there is no rational explanation, and that is something that they have had to explain, in terms of what they plan to do particularly for the future. But I think it's wrong to say that the entire organisation, somehow, isn't fit for purpose. There is no problem, for example, with its permitting regime or the way that it does that, but there clearly has been an issue with timber.

Well, I put it to you, First Minister, there is a theme here, when it comes to holding public bodies to account, and that's a failure on your Government's part to completely make sure that bodies are held to account and are open and transparent. There is no denying that Natural Resources Wales's finances are a complete mess, and I know that this concern is actually shared by some of your own Assembly Members. Now, what concerns me and others is the impact this financial incompetence will have on our natural resources and the communities that actually depend upon them. Instead of focusing on implementing bans, such as the ban on shooting on NRW land, which actually harms the rural economy, your Government and NRW should be focusing on what it can deliver legally to protect our precious natural resources and the communities that actually rely on them. And instead of washing your hands of this, and given it appears that not one person at NRW has been sacked, the buck stops with you, your Government and your Minister. How is your Minister being held accountable for what's gone wrong?

So, this is about pheasant shooting now, is it? So, we now understand what this appears to be about. What I can say to him is this: he gives the impression that the same personnel are in place as were there when the timber contracts were dealt with. That's not true. The chair is no longer there. The chief executive is still new in the job. She was appointed earlier this year, and she is somebody with extensive experience of working in public sector organisations. I can say that the Cabinet Secretary has received a clear commitment from the chief executive that she's fully committed to learning lessons—and the organisation will need to—and to making sure NRW makes the necessary improvements to do the right things in the right way. I can say that the chief executive has also given that assurance to the Public Accounts Committee, taking full responsibility for the organisation, and she has an enthusiasm to support staff to bring out the best in them.

The Plaid Cymru leader, Adam Price.

Diolch, Llywydd. First Minister, as the ink begins to dry on last week's resignation letter, the focus is naturally shifting to the legacy you will leave behind: close to a quarter of our people and a third of our children in poverty; life expectancy in reverse and falling quicker than anywhere else in Europe; a flatlining economy, with Wales stuck in perpetuity at the bottom of the league table. Doesn't this epitomise your Government? A poverty of ambition that is the fundamental cause of the poverty of our people. Do you regret leaving behind an economy that even former communist countries are now outstripping?

Well, first of all, can I welcome him—[Laughter.]—as leader of Plaid Cymru, in this, of course, his first question? He is the tenth party leader that I have faced across this Chamber, which tells you something about the success of the Welsh Labour Government in remaining in Government for that time.

Can I also pay tribute to his predecessor, Leanne Wood? Leanne is somebody with whom we—. Well, we tussled across this Chamber, and outside, but none of it was ever personal, and certainly I know she’s done a great deal for the position of women in politics in Wales, and I know she still has a great deal to offer our nation. [Applause.]

Let’s compare and contrast here. Unemployment is 3.8 per cent. That is lower than the UK average, and that was something that nobody could ever have thought would happen 10 or 15 years ago, but that is the reality of it. We’ve seen the highest figures, the best figures, for foreign direct investment for 30 years, with investment projects the length and breadth of Wales that have brought many, many jobs into Wales—and, importantly, high-skilled jobs as well, not jobs that are here because wage rates are low. If we look at education, what we have done in terms of supporting our students, what we have done in terms of raising standards in Welsh schools, introducing in the near future a Welsh curriculum that's tailored for Wales, having the right qualifications system for Wales, that is something that we are proud of. We have ensured that more and more money has gone into the health service, even as we’ve seen that money being diminished year after year after year by a Tory Government that is hellbent on austerity. So, I stand very proud by my record. The people of Wales, clearly, have an opinion on it, given the fact that I’ve been here for the past nine years.

Now, let’s focus on one thing he has said, which I think is fair to point out to him. He has said, I understand, that he wishes to cut taxes—9p in terms of income tax, getting rid of council tax, getting rid of business rates, and the replacement with another form of taxation. But I have to say to him that that is a £6 billion gap that would need to be found. So, what work—I’m not asking him a question, but it will be interesting to see what work has been done in order to make sure that his new proposals would plug what would be a very substantial gap.

Let's agree, in the time that you have left, First Minister, on the terms of trade: I ask the questions and you give the answers. It's your record that's under the focus here. Now, maybe one—I don't know—of your proudest moments was the great unveiling ceremony, when an Aston Martin car was draped in a Welsh flag in front of the Welsh Government's offices in Cathays Park. Now, what you've been less enthusiastic about revealing is precisely how much public money was used in order to secure the company's investment. You were compelled to reveal the £5.8 million initial grant you gave by the information commissioner. It was literally dragged out of you, but you're now yet again refusing to say whether the company has had any additional money, or to confirm that you've underwritten some of Aston Martin's debt, despite the fact that the company has itself confirmed that in the prospectus for its forthcoming flotation. So, two questions, First Minister: doesn't the Welsh public have a right to know about how much public money is being given to private companies? And, secondly, why are we underwriting the debt of a company that is about to raise £5 billion on the London stock exchange?

So, he accuses me of a lack of ambition, and then he does down one of the biggest and most important investment projects Wales has ever had—750 jobs coming to Wales, a centre of excellence for electric technology for the Lagonda. And I can say to him that, in the real world, you cannot deal with businesses if you say to them, 'Every deal that we have with you we will reveal in public'. No-one will come here. No-one will come here. We will do as much as we can to make sure as much is in the public domain as possible, but if you're saying that, if you were First Minister, you would conduct negotiations in public and have a deal that was made public, no-one would come here. No-one would come here; they'd go elsewhere, where they feel that they could have more confidence in the Government.

And, secondly, I have to say this to him: it's hugely important for us in Wales to show that we can attract investment, not just because of the money we put on the table—Aston Martin were clear about that; they said that there were better financial packages available elsewhere. Aston Martin said that they were impressed by the passion and professionalism of the Welsh Government. That's what we do: show that passion, show that professionalism, and bring jobs into Wales.

The scandal of the answer that you've just given, First Minister, is that the company has put more information into the public domain than the Government, which is meant to be acting in the public interest.

Now, let's turn to Natural Resources Wales. You referred to the incoming chief executive. She's admitted serious failings at the organisation, which she attributed to incompetence—ineptitude, incompetence, but nothing more concerning. Yesterday, however, the Public Accounts Committee was told by the head of the UK Forest Products Association, David Sulman, that, in his view, and I quote,

'these actions were premeditated, deliberate, and made in full knowledge of the facts'.

'We really cannot believe,' he stated emphatically,

'that the actions we've seen...can simply be explained away by incompetence.'

One million pounds, First Minister, in Welsh public money has been lost, and the lead industry body is alleging dishonesty and deliberate malpractice by a public authority. Will you be asking that this matter is now referred to the police?

Well, I've seen no evidence that suggests the matter should be referred to the police, but of course the Cabinet Secretary will be fully aware of the situation. No-one can pretend that it's a good situation—of course not. He goes a step further and suggests there has been criminal activity. That's something we have to consider very carefully to see whether there's any evidence there, and, if there is, of course, then further action may need to be taken. So, we have, of course, the commitment by Natural Resources Wales's new chief executive. We will have a new chair in place. I have no doubt that there will be more that will need to be examined over the course of the next few weeks in order to provide the assurance that, in fairness, Members want to see, and particularly what the Government wants to see.

Leader of the UKIP group, Gareth Bennett.

Diolch, Llywydd. First Minister, you're probably aware of a recent report from the future generations commissioner entitled 'Transport Fit for Future Generations'. [Interruption.] Thank you. On page 16 the report says that:

'Evidence consistently demonstrates that capacity increases on highway infrastructure generate more motorway trips, and generally, new capacity simply fills up over time, often leading to further congestion on the entire corridor/network.'

End of quote. The basic idea of the future generations office, and it's not a new idea, is simply that, the more roads that we build, the more cars use them, and we will ultimately end up back in the same situation that we were in in the first place, with clogged up, congested roads. I think at some point your Government will have to address the issue of how to get vehicles off the road as far as this can reasonably be achieved. For instance, at the moment lots of people are driving into offices to do jobs that they could probably do at home. So, what is the Welsh Government doing to encourage working from home in order to reduce pressure on Welsh road networks? Are you encouraging and incentivising companies and public sector organisations to allow more of their employees to work from home?

Well, yes, I think that's true, because for many, many people it's perfectly possible to work at home, given the technology we have now, rather than having to come into an office in order to work. I'm sure that companies, and indeed we in the public sector as well, are looking at ways to ensure that people can deliver work at home. I know there are local authorities in Wales already doing this, and I know it's an issue that, as Welsh Government, we've been keen to encourage as well. Nevertheless, people will still have to travel and a balance always has to be struck between the transport infrastructure that we need and, of course, the environmental considerations that come with that. But, of course, we are investing in the south Wales metro. That's a huge, huge improvement proposed for south Wales. The same will be true further west and the same will be true further north, and now, of course, with control of the franchise, we will in time be able to deliver the kind of train network that the people of Wales should expect.

Yes. I hear what you say about the south Wales metro, First Minister, but I believe there are possible doubts over the future funding of it, given your Government's commitment to the M4 relief road scheme. So, there may be some uncertainty over the south Wales metro. But, anyway, I don't want to go down that avenue today.

I suppose, ultimately, the proof of the pudding is in the eating, and we have come to a state of virtual gridlock at rush hour in many areas of Wales. So, I would have to say that, whatever measures you are taking to encourage working from home, they don't seem to be having an appreciable effect.

Now, another pressure on road networks at certain specific times of the day is the school run, whereby parents pick up children and students from schools and colleges. I do sometimes wonder what effect your programme of school closures is having on the lengthening traffic jams. According to the school census results published by Statistics for Wales there are almost 300 fewer local authority schools than there were 10 years ago. That is an average of nearly 30 schools closing every year in Wales. First Minister, would you agree that Welsh Government policy has actually driven more people into their cars for the school run?

That's a tenuous link. If he wants to he can go up and down the length and breadth of Wales, and he can see the new schools that have been built—primary schools, comprehensive schools. And they have replaced, yes—perhaps one school's been built to replace another three. But the facilities available at the new schools are fantastic.

It's always difficult when a community loses a school, of course it is, and these decisions have to be taken very, very carefully. He tried to give the impression that, somehow, the fact that there are 300 fewer schools means that, somehow, education has suffered as a result. I'd argue the exact opposite, and we can see it in the results we have from our young people. The reality is—. For example, if he goes to Ceredigion, he will see there many, many new schools that have been built. They replaced very, very small schools and they are wonderful facilities.

From my perspective, we in Wales will continue to build and refurbish schools, because that's the commitment we make to our children's education.

Yes, I understand that the twenty-first century schools programme creates modernised school buildings and I'm certainly not—[Interruption.] I am certainly not—[Interruption.] I am certainly not—[Interruption.] Yes. I'm certainly not denigrating that. However, it does not necessarily create local schools. Indeed, the effect the programme has in some areas may be entirely the opposite. For example, the programme may create a modern school, but it may well be a school whose location forces more people to drive to school rather than walk to school, as they did before. What assurance can you give us that any new schools built using the twenty-first century schools programme will be genuinely local and, therefore, minimise the need for long car journeys by parents?

I'm not sure I follow his argument. Many of the new schools that have been built are, literally, a few miles away from the schools that they were built to replace. It's not a situation where children suddenly have to travel 10 miles to go to school where previously there was one on their doorstep.

We're proud of the fact that we in Wales have a commitment to building new schools, to refurbishing new schools. What is the point of keeping schools that are too small to be viable or schools that are in buildings that are very difficult, particularly for modern technology?

Yes, I've seen situations where people can be very concerned when a school that has been there for many, many, many years closes, but I've not yet come across anybody who has said, when they see a new school, that they'd like to go back to the old schools. What they see is a school that is a community facility, a school that offers all the best in terms of technology, offers wonderful teaching space, in a way that wasn't available in some of the older schools in Wales.

I don't know what he's trying to say here—whether we should not have new schools or that we should carry on with the same old buildings. For me, new schools mean better education for our pupils.

Welsh Government funding has helped to prevent homelessness for nearly 18,000 households across Wales since our progressive legislation was introduced. That does include over 3,000 from north Wales. In addition, over £5.1 million has been provided to the north Wales authorities to support implementation of the Housing (Wales) Act 2014 since April 2015.

Thank you, First Minister. However, I am becoming increasingly concerned at the rising numbers of those having to brave the elements without any accommodation, particularly so as we approach winter. In my own constituency of Aberconwy, there are a growing number of vulnerable people sleeping rough. A week last Friday, a constituent approached my office requiring emergency accommodation and rehabilitation support after not having settled at any accommodation for the past 12 months.

After receiving no practical help from the local authority for over four hours, while we looked after this individual in our office, we relied on the help of the wonderful Mrs Brenda Fogg of Hope Restored, a one-woman volunteer, who has a very kind heart. She actually ran out with blankets and food provisions. As of today, though, I am still awaiting some form of rehabilitation and accommodation from the local authorities for this individual.

First Minister, what steps are you taking to ensure that all local authorities are fulfilling their obligations to the homeless and rough-sleepers as per section 73 of the Housing Act (Wales) 2014, to which this gentleman, and my constituent, is fully entitled?

Well, there has been a response, of course, to the Equality, Local Government and Communities Committee's report into rough-sleeping. We've set out our detailed reply to the 29 recommendations that were contained there.

It's got to be said that welfare reform and the austerity agenda continue to create further pressure on households and their access to affordable accommodation. Nevertheless, it's true to say that implementation of the legislation has been inconsistent, and we are working with the Welsh Local Government Association, the homelessness network and others to make further progress to improve outcomes and create greater consistency.

Diolch, Llywydd. First Minister, the winter is fast approaching and forecasts suggest that this is going to be a bad one. You never seem to answer questions, and always blame it on Tory austerity. What assistance is your Government planning to give to local authorities and the agencies who are on the front line dealing with the rough-sleeping epidemic in Wales?

Specific funding has been targeted for north Wales, and, in particular, Wrexham, to help to tackle the issue of increased rough sleeping in the area. We do expect to receive a proposal to deliver an innovative partnership approach that will include both statutory and third sector partners. So, the money is there, it's a question of getting the right project in place in order to assist those who need it.

Children’s rights are already enshrined in Welsh law. Ministers have a legal duty to have due regard to the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child when exercising any of their functions. All Ministers meet regularly with the children’s commissioner. Indeed, I am meeting with the commissioner next week to discuss her latest annual report.

Thank you, First Minister. You will be aware that, last week, we welcomed to the National Assembly Bruce Adamson, the children's commissioner for Scotland, who gave the first annual commemorative lecture in memory of your predecessor, Rhodri Morgan. Speaking about the Welsh legislation, Mr Adamson said this:

'There is so much that I like. I like the proactive approach to compliance, I think it gives stakeholders the opportunity to influence how children's rights are embedded in legislation and through policy making. But it is not full incorporation.'

In your meeting with the children's commissioner next week, First Minister, will you undertake to discuss with her if we may need to take further steps to fully incorporate the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, whether that be through an amendment to the existing Measure or, if necessary, to a more far-reaching, fully comprehensive incorporation? The issue, I think, is around, First Minister, the ability for the individual child to ensure that their rights are complied with and to have redress. So, I would be very grateful, First Minister, if you would discuss this with our children's commissioner and see if she feels there are further steps that should be taken.

Yes, I can give that assurance. We always look to learn from others, but there are sometimes unexpected consequences with full incorporation in areas where some legal problems can be created. That has to be balanced, of course, against the rights of the child and the convention itself, but I will discuss it—I'm sure she'll discuss it with me—in the course of this week to see if there's anything more that we can do to build on the commitment and the action we've already taken.

On a similar point, actually, in the report on the Measure's section 1 compliance, Welsh Government stated that as a next step its intention is to:

'review our strategy to support and highlight the importance of participation by children and young people in decisions which affect them.'

I've raised before, similarly to Helen Mary, this disconnect between the Government policy and Assembly legislation, which should be made with due regard to article 12 amongst others, and the ability for public bodies that deliver that policy or legislation to observe or ignore article 12 as it suits them, which means that policy or legislative intentions can sometimes be diluted or fail altogether. Obviously, we know about some instances of voluntary observance, but they're the exception rather than the rule. Supporting and highlighting are all very well, but where expectation fails, legislation can step in. Do you think we might have reached that point now?

I've not seen evidence of it, but I'm open, of course, to any evidence that the commissioner would want to produce in the course of this week to see whether there is evidence of a need to strengthen the commitment that we've already made, and I look forward to that conversation.

As we near the end of the first world war centenary, the focus of commemoration will inevitably be the armistice. We will join the other UK nations in marking the centenary with a national service of thanksgiving on 11 November. That service will be held at Llandaff cathedral.

Thank you for that answer, First Minister. As you will know, people across Wales have been coming together over the past four years to mark the centenary of the events of the first world war, and I want to pay tribute to your Government for its Cymru'n Cofio Wales Remembers programme, which I think has been exceptionally good and has helped to focus the attention of the nation on what are very important events in our history. That programme, of course, will come to an end as a result of the end of the first world war. What work are you doing to ensure that the legacy of that programme can continue and will you consider extending the opportunity to run, in particular, the website, which has been a very useful portal for commemoration of military events, well into the future and beyond the end of this centenary year?

I can confirm that, last year, I agreed to continue the programme until 2020. The armistice was not the end, of course. We know that the Paris peace conference came and then the Treaty of Versailles, which led to the second world war, but there's a limit to how far we can go in terms of dealing with the legacy of the first world war. It's significant to Wales, of course, because there were two Welshmen involved—David Lloyd George and Billy Hughes. It is said they spoke Welsh to each other. I'm not quite sure, because Billy Hughes was brought up in London of Welsh parentage, I believe. But, anyway, it's hugely important because if young people are to understand the legacy of the first world war, then the legacy of the peace is clearly an important part of that, and how to get it wrong in terms of a peace treaty and how to create problems for the future. So, it will go to 2020. I can assure the Member that we are now considering the legacy of the programme, how the resources that have been developed can be used in the future, and how we avoid a situation where it comes to an end in 2020 and everything's forgotten. That's the last thing we want to see.

We do recognise that offenders have a higher prevalence of mental health issues than the general population, and we do work with a range of partners, including Her Majesty's Prison and Probation Service and police forces in Wales, to provide mental health support for people in the criminal justice system.

Thank you for that answer, First Minister. During my recent work with health services in Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney, I was very struck by the high incidences of mental health problems amongst people in parts of our criminal justice system, and I took particular interest in the amount of police time being taken up by the duty of care that they hold towards such vulnerable people. I know we have some incredible initiatives, actually, to help address this, like the clinical adviser project in the Gwent force police area, a model that is soon to be rolled out in the south Wales force area. But what further action can Welsh Government take to ensure places of sanctuary are provided for people with mental health issues that, in turn, can help to free up police resources for front-line policing? 

Of course, policing is a non-devolved service; mental health provision is devolved. It's right to say in 2017 police powers were extended in order to assist people with mental health issues, and there is a great deal of collaborative working with the commissioners, with the police forces and also with the mental health crisis care concordat assurance group, and the regional mental health and criminal justice groups. We have made £7 million available annually since 2015-16 to improve provision for people who present in crisis. There is an advice centre that offers confidential support 24 hours a day as well.

In terms of new actions, we have prioritised access to crisis and out-of-hours care in the mental health transformation and innovation fund, and we've received proposals that include around £1 million to support a range of interventions, extending crisis care, liaison services and street triage. So, we will continue to work with the partners that we have in this field in order to make sure that people are steered away from the criminal justice system and towards a service that is more appropriate to them. It's something that I saw in the early 1990s, where people ended up in prison because quite often they had been long term in psychiatric hospitals, they left, they didn't get the support that they needed, they ended up in the criminal justice system, and that's a situation that clearly we want to avoid in the future.

First Minister, in England, offenders with mental health problems are being referred to health services as part of community sentences, in an effort to steer them away from jails. Under a pilot scheme in five areas, psychologists and a panel comprising justice and health officials have been providing information to judges or magistrates to determine whether offenders should be required to receive treatment. A recent Ministry of Justice study found that when offenders were given a mental health treatment requirement as part of their sentence, they were significantly less likely to reoffend. Will the First Minister undertake to hold discussions with the Ministry of Justice about introducing a similar scheme in Wales, please?  

That's not a particularly new scheme. Schemes of that sort have been around for many, many years in terms of looking to deal with people for whom prison is not the appropriate response when they find themselves in the criminal justice system. Now, I don't know who funds those schemes, whether they are funded by the Ministry of Justice—and justice, of course, is not as yet devolved. But, clearly, we will always look at pilots elsewhere. As I say, it's not clear what these pilots are designed to do at the moment, nor is it clear who is funding them, but if there was funding available from the MOJ, well, of course, it's something that we'd like to look at.

Clearly, there's a link between drug abuse and mental health problems, and, from research I've looked at today, it would cost about £500 million to deal with drug-related crime for the individuals involved here in the UK. Now, there are many arrest referral schemes, but the take-up for them is quite low. They do things like methadone maintenance programmes to reduce both illegal heroin and related crime; they have medically supervised detoxification and counselling services, as has been mentioned previously. Now, I know we don't have power over the criminal justice system here in Wales, although on these benches we would like to see that come here, so what are you doing in relation to trying to target resources at those who are dependent on drugs in our society?

I went out with police in Port Talbot only a few weeks ago, and most of the people that we went out to assess or to look at were on drugs, were on heroin. This is something that is around us every day. How are you getting to grips with these particular schemes and working with the UK Government to ensure that they're working here in Wales?

Well, tackling drug misuse is a complex issue. We've always seen it in terms of health rather than in terms of it being a crime. The suppliers and the dealers are criminals; the users are victims and they are people who need help through the health system rather than through the criminal justice system. We have, of course, the substance misuse strategy and the plans that are associated with that, and that guides what we are doing in terms of reducing the harm associated with substance misuse. In terms of misuse in prisons, well, the services are delivered in line with clinical guidance and with prison health teams.

We also have a programme called take home Naloxone that is provided to prisoners at the point of release within prisons across Wales. That's helped to target drug-related deaths in the community. Naloxone, of course, is a drug that reverses the effects of a heroin overdose or, indeed, morphine drugs and that family—overdoses of those drugs—and brings people back very quickly, in seconds, from a situation where perhaps they're in difficulty with breathing, particularly, and in danger of dying. So, being able to provide the immediate support for people to avoid dying of a drug overdose is the first step. Secondly, of course, the substance misuse strategy looks at moving people on, long term, away from the drugs that have captured their lives for many years.

Well, if the Prime Minister is unable to secure agreement on the final terms of the UK’s exit from the EU, to my mind, there should be a general election. If there's no general election or if a general election throws up an inconclusive result, how else can the issue be resolved other than through a second referendum?

It could be resolved by doing what you said in 2016, First Minister, when you said that you respected the result of the referendum—that you accepted the decision made by the people and would not work against the referendum result. Even in March this year, you said,

'I am not questioning Brexit—the UK is leaving the EU.'

Notwithstanding what you said before, isn't it clear, First Minister, from your answer today and your amendment tomorrow that you want to betray the democratic decision of the people of Wales?

Could I remind the Member that he sits on the benches of a party that, for eight years, demanded a second referendum on devolution. The 1997 referendum was not accepted by the Conservative Party, and in 2005 they ran on a manifesto promise of a second referendum, so the double standards here are absolutely breathtaking.

Let me move on to the point that he makes. How do you resolve the issue? If Britain leaves with no deal, are we really saying that the people have no right to express an opinion on that? Because nobody two years ago—not even him—said, 'A "no deal" Brexit is likely'. No-one said it. Everybody said—Nigel Farage said it, the Brexiteers said it—'Oh, it'll be the easiest negotiation in the world, we'll have a free trade agreement like that, the German car manufacturers will drive it, et cetera, et cetera.' You've heard me say it in this Chamber. But, surely, if there's no deal, people have a right to express a view as to what they think about that. They may say, 'Well, let's leave with no deal.' They may say that. They may say, 'Well, let's—

They voted to leave.

Well, I'm not taking any advice from UKIP. Their current policy is a second referendum on devolution anyway without actually realising the irony in their comments. If people find themselves in a situation where a 'no deal' Brexit is all that is on the table, when nobody mentioned a 'no deal' Brexit two years ago, is it actually honest to say to people, 'Tough luck. Two years ago, you had your say on this. All right, this option wasn't discussed or wasn't on the table, but it's too bad because you've already expressed a view'? I don't think that's democracy. People surely should have the opportunity, whether—my preference—through a general election that would then throw up a decisive result, then that would mean that there would be no need for a referendum at that point, or, secondly, if the election was inconclusive, what's so bad about asking the people about this who took the decision in the first place?

Because you ignore what they tell you. 

I'm still at a loss to understand exactly why the First Minister thinks that a conclusive general election—presumably with the Labour victory that he would want—would help his Government further 'Securing Wales' Future', which I am still assuming is the policy of the Welsh Government. Because if there is a majority Labour Government in any snap general election, we'll be leaving the single market and leaving the customs union, and the people would have absolutely no right to have a say on that question properly. So, even looking again at the question of time frames, presuming there is a general election in January, without extending article 50 that's two months—three months max—the Labour Government would have to negotiate our departure from the single market and customs union, which is, of course, precisely the policy of the current United Kingdom Government. So, rather than going through all of that nonsense, why can't the First Minister just say, 'Let the people decide, and let them decide now'?

Well, the difficulty is this, isn't it: there's no deal on the table as yet. So, you'd be asking people to take a decision without knowing what the full consequences will be. I think they need to be fully informed—they weren't two years ago—of what the consequences would be. It would take just as long to organise a referendum.

To my mind, a general election would give an opportunity for the parties to set out their stalls in detail as to what they think Brexit should look like, and on that basis people can vote accordingly. If there is an inconclusive result, then, he's right: how else do you resolve the issue other than through asking the very same people who took the decision two years ago whether, in the full knowledge of what they know now, they want to go ahead?

The problem has always been this: two years ago, people were asked to vote for an idea—there was no plan: an idea—and people would interpret it in different ways. There are some in this Chamber who will interpret the vote in 2016 as a vote for any kind of Brexit, no deal or not. Others, like me, will interpret it as a vote for Brexit, but not on whatever terms get thrown at the UK. When we had our referendums for devolution, people could, if they wished, look at the document that would tell them exactly what would happen if they voted 'yes'. That didn't happen in 2016. So, surely, if we're in that situation where there's no deal, or a bad deal, people have the right to be able to express a view as to what they want to do. Just trust the people.

The health board continues to report the best performance in Wales against unscheduled care targets, which should support resilience as we enter the difficult winter period. We have received its integrated winter delivery plan and provided tailored feedback to inform further enhancement of its plan. 

Thank you, First Minister. I appreciate that the day-to-day delivery of health service provision in Cardiff and Vale is the health board's responsibility, but there's a level of interaction between the Welsh Government and the health board. One of the key pinch points last year was the provision of beds within the hospitals within that area. What certainty can you give the people of Cardiff and Vale that there will be additional beds made available to deal with the excess pressures that undoubtedly will occur through the winter months?

I am fully aware, as I stand here every week, that there is a level of accountability to Ministers in terms of questions that need to be answered. Preparations for the winter have been taking place throughout Wales and across organisational boundaries since last winter. There was a review of what happened last year: five key priorities have been collected and identified for delivery to support greater resilience next winter. We have now received integrated health and social care winter delivery plans from all the health boards, from the Welsh Ambulance Services NHS Trust and from local authority partners. They align to the priorities, and officials were encouraged by the level of assurance provided by the local health and care system in Cardiff and the Vale, with a high number of actions already well-embedded or being implemented to strengthen winter delivery to local people.

Finally, question 9, Rhun ap Iorwerth. 

The Welsh Government is a statutory body for nationally significant infrastructure projects in Wales. As part of the processes, we have responded to the pre-application consultation and we are currently considering the evidence presented for the development consent order application.

That application has been submitted, but the grid, since the beginning of this process, haven't given an inch in response to the pressure from me, the Member of Parliament, the council or, more importantly, the unanimity of the people of Anglesey that we need to underground these cables, and let's recall that this Chamber favoured undergrounding rather than pylons and voted for that. You said in January that you'd remind the grid of that. So, what was their response? But, more importantly, will you give a commitment to push as much as possible as Welsh Government to ensure that the British Planning Inspectorate realises that the democratic views of this Parliament have been expressed, and that they must respect that? And, with a further suggestion that a tunnel that could put cables under the Menai could cost £300 million, isn't it clear that it would be a scandal if the money, or part of that money, weren't spent on a new bridge to carry cables and vehicles, with the rest being invested in undergrounding?

That is right. We, of course, as a Government have told the grid that it's extremely important to consider a third crossing—a third bridge over the Menai strait—in order to ensure that the cables can go on that bridge. There is a formal agreement between ourselves and the grid to consider these cables, and I would imagine that it would be a totally sensible thing to do if there is any practical problem in relation to that. Because we are a statutory party to this, we will be taking part in the development consent order inspection itself, and we will be looking to develop a statement of common ground with the grid about the project itself. But, of course, the grid knows the views of this Assembly and the views of local people. We, as a Government, want to ensure that any impact on the area is kept to a minimum.

Thank you, First Minister.

The next item, therefore, is the business statement and announcement, and I call on the leader of the house to make the statement—Julie James.

Diolch, Llywydd. There are two changes to this week's business: today's statement on the findings of the independent and accelerated programme for amber review has been postponed and, instead, a statement on 'An Update on Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis—our Approach in Wales' has been added. Draft business for the next few weeks is set out in the business statement and announcement, which can be found amongst the meeting papers available to Members electronically.

Leader of the house, may I ask for a statement from the Cabinet Secretary for Education on the current pay offer made by ColegauCymru to lecturers, please? Welsh Government publications have recognised that further education provides opportunities for individuals to build and fulfil their ambitions. The better people's skills, the better their chances of getting fair, secure and rewarding employment and the stronger the skills base is in Wales, the more chances we have of attracting new businesses and growing existing ones to improve prosperity. A constituent of mine claims that concerns about pay levels have led to many leaving their jobs for more lucrative employment, and shortages in applicants for positions requiring specific skills such as engineering and construction. Sorry—I think that is it. I haven't got the second side. So, basically, I need a statement from the Cabinet Secretary for Education on the current pay offer to lecturers, please.

Yes. I think there is a real issue here about the amount of money available to the Welsh Government to pay the terms and conditions that we'd like to, however, this Government has, of course, guaranteed parity for the FE lecturers with teachers and I know that the Cabinet Secretary has made that point very clearly in this Chamber on a number of occasions. I don't think she needs to do so again in a statement.

Leader of the house, we know that international visitors will be crucially important to the success of Welsh tourism in future, but there are a number of key areas that we need to develop further if we are to deliver the sustained and intensive growth that we all wish to see. International marketing by Visit Wales, and how we target people, particularly in the key markets, is one important element and, of course, the direct air links that are available from Wales, particularly from Cardiff Airport.

Recently, we have seen that the number of travellers on the Cardiff to Qatar route is increasing, and this will hopefully give confidence to other providers and strengthen the case for having direct routes to other key destinations. Recently, too, Cardiff Airport has revealed its master plan for the next 20 years, and earlier this year, the chief executive, Willie Walsh, talked about his hope of developing a transatlantic service from Cardiff Airport. 

So, with much to be discussed in this area, would the Government agree to bring forward a statement that would focus on the work of Visit Wales in key markets, and also the work that is ongoing, and the further plans for developing air links directly from Wales? Thank you. 

Yes, this is an increasingly important area, particularly in the light of the difficulties we have over negotiating sensible arrangements for Brexit purposes. It's very important to this Government that we continue to make sure that Wales is very much open for business across the member states of the European Union, and across the world. The Minister is indicating to me that he's more than happy to bring a statement forward to that effect.

I was contacted a few days ago by a constituent from Rhiwbina, in my constituency of Cardiff North, about her four-year-old daughter, who has just been diagnosed with a severe peanut allergy. She was told initially that there were no junior EpiPens available at any pharmacies. So, she phoned every pharmacy in Cardiff and couldn't get one, but has since identified two in Swansea. So it's obviously a hugely concerning situation, and I believe the advice is to use an out-of-date EpiPen if you can't get one, but, of course, she has recently just been diagnosed, so she hasn't got any out-of-date EpiPens, and she needs a number of them to be at all the different places she goes. It is a very worrying situation, so she's asked me to raise it with the Welsh Government and to ask whether there could be an urgent statement to say what is to happen in this situation, with the shortage of stock.

And then the second issue I wanted to raise was: I went this morning to a celebration organised by the Hindu Council of Wales at the Gandhi statue, to mark the first anniversary of the statue being erected and also to mark the International Day of Peace. I wondered if it would be possible to have a statement about the importance of making school pupils, in particular, aware of the history of figures like Gandhi and what they've actually done, what contributions they've made, so that these statues can become alive to people, and particularly young people, in Cardiff.

Yes, well, on the very important matter of the EpiPens, we are aware of the current limited availability of EpiPen products in the UK. It's a global issue, and one we're working with the UK Government and the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency to address. Whilst the availability of EpiPen products is indeed currently limited, alternative adrenaline auto-injectors continue to be available, and the manufacturers are working with the supply chains to increase UK supplies. Last Friday, the MHRA issued detailed guidance to healthcare professionals on actions to be taken to ensure there are adequate supplies of adrenaline auto-injectors in the UK to meet current demand. The Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Services will make a written statement in the coming days, setting out the detail of the mitigating actions being put in place, in light of the importance placed on it, and the Member raising it today in the business statement. But any patient unable to obtain supplies of an EpiPen should speak to their clinician without delay about using an alternative adrenaline auto-injector device, to ensure that they are safely covered—especially in the light of the tragic case that has been in the news recently.

In terms of the statement around the statue and the celebration, yes, I'm very happy to work with the Cabinet Secretary for Education to make sure that we can, either one of us, bring something forward about the importance of historic peace figures, especially in the light of the end of the first world war celebrations, and a number of other things, to make sure that the statues are interactive. The Member will know that I am very keen on having QR codes and so on put on statues, so that they come to life as we go around, and we can certainly look into that.

Can I call for a single statement on the roll-out of smart meters in Wales? Tomorrow, I'm actually hosting an event with Smart Energy GB, a drop-in event between 11.00 a.m. and 1.30 p.m. in Dining Room 1, and I encourage Members to go along to celebrate International Coffee Day, but also to find out how many cups of coffee your constituents could make through their energy saving, but also, more seriously, to update Members on the smart meter roll-out and share specific constituency and regional smart meter installation figures.

We know that during the summer there was some adverse media coverage of smart meters, and claims that they will only save consumers £11 a year on average. Of course, that's only a 2020 saving; the anticipatory savings are much greater. The UK Government's cost-benefit analysis says that, taking all costs into account, the net benefit of the roll-out is around £6 billion, and households will save both by using energy more efficiently, and as a result of a smart energy system that is cheaper to run. The provision of in-home displays will enable people to measure their expenditure in pounds and pence, and therefore save in their domestic use, and the alternative, of course, is a more expensive analogue grid. Finally, of course, they allow greater flexibility in the utilisation of renewable energy. Given those points, I therefore hope that the Welsh Government will continue to be supportive and provide a statement on their involvement with and a position on the roll-out of smart meters in Wales, as they go forward.

Well, I think the Member's done an extremely good job himself of setting out the value of smart meters, and of advertising his event tomorrow. The Member will also know that I am very keen on knowing how much energy I spend making coffee, as I am rather fond of it, so I'll be sure to make sure to pop along to his event tomorrow, to ensure that we have good attendance there.

Is it possible to have a statement on the situation on medical education in Bangor—an update, that is? Constituents are contacting me asking whether it is possible to apply for an undergraduate course in medicine in Bangor University from 2019 onwards. Of course, this is in the light of the announcement earlier this year about the partnership between Bangor and Cardiff universities to deliver medical education. A number of local students are very eager to find out whether they can undertake some of their training in Bangor from 2019 onwards. That isn’t clear at present, although that was the pledge that was made. So, a statement to clear that up would be most useful. Thank you very much.

Also, may I ask for a statement, or some information, from the Government on the Wales planning policy? When are you likely to announce this or publish this? And also, can we have an update on TAN 20, as regards the Welsh language? Over the summer, it was said that this Government could be facing a legal challenge on this. Has the Government had a change of view on TAN 20?

And finally, a few months ago, the Cabinet Secretary for Energy, Planning and Rural Affairs stated that she was willing to review the need for a separate planning inspectorate for Wales, and that we would be discussing this further. Please can we have a statement as regards the Government's stance on the creation of a planning inspectorate for Wales? Thank you.

Thank you for those three important issues. The Cabinet Secretary is indicating to me that both of the updates you're talking about will be available by the end of this year, and she'll be bringing them forward once they are available.

In terms of the medical education in Bangor, I'm not sure which of us it should be, but I'll make sure that somebody writes to you with an update on that, and that can be made available to all Members.

Leader of the house, I'd like to ask for two statements. Last week, I sponsored a briefing on Mind Cymru's big mental health survey. The survey gathered the experiences of over 500 people across Wales who accessed primary care in the past 12 months. It raised some important trends, and Mind Cymru are looking to collate further evidence and data this year. Separate research published by Mind found that mental health now accounts for 40 per cent of all general practitioner appointments in Wales. So, further to this research, can we have a statement on mental health and primary care services in Wales?

Secondly, some Members may have seen the item on ITV Wales news last week that they did on a football team run by Newport County Association Football Club for people living with mental health conditions. Playing football and being part of the team has transformed the lives of those taking part, and I'm delighted that my colleagues Jack Sargeant and John Griffiths will be joining me tonight to watch County play, to find out more about the work that they do to support people in the local community. So, leader of the house, can we have a statement on how Welsh Government can work with organisations like sports clubs and how they can help people with mental health conditions?

Thank you for that. We absolutely agree that sport and physical activity has a very positive impact on mental health and well-being, and it's why prevention is a key theme in our 'Together for Mental Health' strategy, which was published in 2012. That absolutely does include a focus on non-clinical support. We're very keen to maximise opportunities to support people with a vast array of non-clinical community services that offer real health and well-being benefits, including participation in sport and physical activity. Indeed, I had the opportunity to visit a project, Down to Earth, in Rebecca Evans's constituency only last week, which focuses on building sustainable homes to improve mental health. There are some really startling clinical results associated with it.

The healthy and active fund, launched in July by the Cabinet Secretary and the Minister for Culture, Tourism and Sport, aims to support initiatives that improve both physical and mental health. It's a partnership between Welsh Government, Sport Wales and Public Health Wales and delivers in an integrated way the Welsh Government commitments to introduce a well-being bond and a challenge fund for sport. Phase 1 of the HAF was to support projects that strengthen and develop community assets, with a £5 million fund available to invest over three years. The fund opens for expressions of interest this month with a view to successful projects starting delivery in April of next year. And on 1 October we announced the mental health social prescribing pilot. Mind Cymru and the British Red Cross have been awarded a total of £1.351 million—I think that says; sorry, Llywydd, my eyesight is not what it should be, and I haven't got my glasses with me, but a large amount of millions of pounds—to deliver projects across Wales. [Laughter.] The types of interventions that are delivered could include provision of community-based well-being activities, such as walking groups, arts and crafts et cetera.

I commend the Member on her interest in sport. I'm pleased to say that in Swansea we've had a little bit of an uplift in our sporting outlook as well. And I know myself that even just going to watch can have a beneficial impact on mental health. So, I commend the Member for her interest in the activity. 

Leader of the house, I'd like to ask for two statements today. Firstly, I'd welcome an update from Welsh Government on discussions around the banning of the third-party sale of dogs and cats. There's a large body of evidence and public opinion in favour of introducing the so-called Lucy's law, due to concerns around health and well-being. With changes proposed in England that would bring in a partial ban, there is an opportunity for us to go beyond this and introduce a really rigorous humane law that would stop third-party sales altogether. 

Secondly, I'd like to place on record my congratulations to South Wales Fire and Rescue Service for holding on to their UK title for extrication at the United Kingdom Rescue Organisation Challenge 2018, held in Roald Dahl Plass, the weekend just gone. I and my colleague Jenny Rathbone had the pleasure of watching them prepare for that a few weeks ago, during the summer recess, and it really was a sight to behold. I'm sure you would join with me also in wishing them all the very best for the world challenge in a few weeks' time. The challenges our fire and rescue personnel have to meet in order to ensure public safety and well-being are ever-changing. So, will there be an opportunity to debate in Government time how we can ensure they receive the support they need to carry on their excellent work? 

Yes, I was privileged to have a quick chat with some of the personnel involved in setting up the exhibition last week. I was offered the opportunity to be rescued from a vehicle, but unfortunately my diary wouldn't permit me to do it. I was a bit disappointed by it, but anyway—. [Laughter.] I'm extremely happy to wish them all the best for the world challenge in a few weeks' time. It's a fun way to demonstrate the excellence of the service and some of the challenges that they meet. I'm absolutely happy to congratulate them on hosting such a prestigious event and pay tribute to everyone involved. It was a great performance by south Wales, as Vikki Howells has said. They won the overall awards for casualty extrication and for rope rescue and were placed third in water rescue—by far the best performance all round. I absolutely want to wish them the very best of luck at the forthcoming world challenge in South Africa. 

Unlike other public sector organisations, they set their own budgets here in Wales. They're unique in that respect. We don't directly fund and control the level of funding they levy from the constituent local authorities. But they do such a great job, and I think, all joking aside, it is an excellent way to showcase and to allow the personnel of the fire and rescue service to showcase how really very good they are. This isn't just excellence in a competition, this is actually excellence on the side of the road when they're helping people, and the speed with which they perform saves lives. So, I'm very, very happy to commend them.

In terms of the animal welfare regulations that Vikki Howells raised, the Cabinet Secretary made an oral statement back in June, and has committed to an investigation of third-party sellers in Wales. Work is ongoing with stakeholders to gather information on the issues and we will be looking at options for the way forward in due course. But it is worth remembering that we've already introduced a number of animal welfare measures well before England, which include the Animal Welfare (Breeding of Dogs) Wales Regulations 2014, the Microchipping of Dogs (Wales) Regulations 2015 and the Animal Welfare (Electronic Collars) (Wales) Regulations 2010, and the Cabinet Secretary is working hard with stakeholders to see what we can do to build on that.

I would like a statement as to when the Welsh Government were aware of the accidents in the cooling ponds involving weapons-grade plutonium at Hinkley Point A in the 1960s. When was the Government aware of this?

I think the Member needs to write in to the Cabinet Secretary for an answer to that.

Thank you, leader of the house. 

The next item, therefore, is the statement by the Cabinet Secretary for Finance, and it's a statement on the draft budget for 2019-20. I call on the Cabinet Secretary, Mark Drakeford.

Diolch, Llywydd. Today I lay the Welsh Government’s draft budget before the National Assembly. 

In 2010, the then Chancellor of the Exchequer introduced an emergency budget in which he said that what he called necessary sacrifices would lead to debt falling and a balanced budget by the end of Parliament in 2015. The sacrifices, Llywydd, go on, but the sunny uplands of economic success have moved to 2025 and beyond. Never has the need for a UK Government to abandon the failed polices of austerity been more urgent as the darkening shadow of Brexit looms over this draft budget. The chief economist’s analysis, also published today, shows that Brexit already costs every person in Wales and the United Kingdom up to £400. This Welsh Government’s unremitting efforts to protect front-line services are carried out against those headwinds and those of shrinking budgets and escalating demand.

Llywydd, if the funding available to Wales had simply stood still at its 2010 value, not rising by a single penny, the budget before Members today would have £800 million more to care for older people, to help children get the best possible start in life, to protect our environment and to invest in the future of our economy. If the budget had grown in line with the economy since 2010, simply taking a static share of the national cake, today’s budget would have £4 billion more to invest. And if it had moved in line with the growth in public expenditure, something achieved over the 50 years prior to 2010, the budget in front of Members would be £6 billion higher for those essential purposes. Little wonder, then, that this has been the most difficult budget round yet. As well as the dual challenges of rising costs and spending constraints, our hard-pressed public services face the challenges of rising inflation, unfunded pay pressures and the UK Government’s unilateral decision to change public sector pension funding, transferring a further £300 million of unplanned costs on to Welsh public services.

Llywydd, the failure of the present Chancellor of the Exchequer to initiate a comprehensive spending review means that I have no budget with which I can plan beyond 2019-20. As a result, today, I am able only to publish a one-year revenue plan, for 2019-20 only, and capital plans for only the next two financial years. 

Now, in line with the new procedures introduced last year by the National Assembly, I set out today the major building blocks of the budget—where the money comes from and how it will be allocated to Government departments. Later this month, the Welsh Government will publish detailed spending plans, explaining how individual portfolio Ministers intend to deploy the resources available to them.

This draft budget, Llywydd, builds on the plans we published last year and reflects the second year of the two-year budget agreement between the Government and Plaid Cymru. I would like to thank Steffan Lewis for the constructive discussions, which have continued since the agreement was reached. Building on the measures previously agreed, we will now provide additional capital of £2.75 million to upgrade the Urdd camps at Glan-llyn and Llangrannog. The draft budget also includes £5 million in capital to take forward the results of feasibility studies agreed in earlier discussions. I look forward to joint consideration of those reports between our two parties as they become available.

Llywydd, I now turn to the major building blocks of this budget, beginning with the fiscal decisions that are now made in Wales. I said last year that I intended to raise landfill disposals tax in line with inflation. As a result, the rates for 2019-20 will stand at £91.35 per tonne for the standard rate, £2.90 for the lower rate, while the unauthorised rate rises to £137.

In last year’s budget, I set the rates and bands for land transaction tax, making it the most progressive tax for people buying and selling property anywhere in the United Kingdom. I said then that I had heard and understood the calls for stability from the sector. With that in mind, and because of the deep uncertainty surrounding Brexit, I have decided to leave rates and band unchanged for 2019-20. As was the case last year, however, should the Chancellor of the Exchequer make changes to stamp duty land tax in the UK autumn budget, I will review the position here in Wales. 

Llywydd, this is the first ever budget in which a Welsh finance Minister has responsibility for setting the Welsh rates of income tax. Under the terms of the fiscal framework, 2019‑20 will be a transition year in which Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs undertakes important new administrative responsibilities for Wales. My party made a commitment in our 2016 manifesto not to raise income tax rates in Wales during this Assembly term. We did so, Llywydd, because we are acutely aware of the impact that austerity has had on so many Welsh families. I confirm today that the Welsh Government will not increase income tax rates in Wales in 2019-20, fulfilling that commitment and contributing to an orderly implementation of the new responsibilities that are now discharged here in Wales.

The careful management of our tax powers requires accurate forecasting. I thank the Bangor Business School for its important work in independently scrutinising and assuring the forecasts produced by the Welsh Government. In 2019-20, Welsh rates of income tax are forecast to contribute over £2 billion to the Welsh budget. Landfill disposals tax is expected to raise £40 million and land transaction tax £285 million. The significant rise in forecast revenues from landfill disposals tax is best attributed to the accurate collection now possible as a result of having our own Welsh Revenue Authority. In its first six months, the WRA has collected more than £100 million to support Welsh public services and has made, I believe, an outstandingly successful start as an important institution here in a devolved Wales.

Following close consultation with the Finance Committee, I announced in July the longer term forecasting arrangements to which we are committed by the terms of the fiscal framework. Starting next year, with the 2020-21 budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility will produce independent forecasts of revenues from the devolved taxes for the Welsh Government's budget process, and these forecasts will of course be shared with Assembly Members. 

Llywydd, I turn now to another important devolved revenue stream: non-domestic rates. We consulted over the summer on proposals to reduce the amount of non-domestic rates revenue lost every year through avoidance. It cannot be right that the efforts of the considerable majority, who abide by the rules and make their contribution, are undercut by a minority intent on exploiting or abusing the system. On 16 October, I will announce the outcome of the consultation and the actions we will take to reduce rates avoidance in Wales in time to be in place for next year's budget.

Llywydd, I also to intend to consult over the next 12 monthson proposals to remove charitable rate relief from independent schools and private hospitals in Wales, placing them on an equal footing with their public sector counterparts in respect of the payment of those rates. State schools and hospitals pay non-domestic rates on properties they occupy, as do a wide range of other public sector organisations. That makes an important contribution to the cost of vital local services delivered in our communities. Others should do the same.

I also intend to consult, Llywydd, in order to bring forward measures as soon as possible to exempt care leavers in Wales from paying council tax until they are 25. Many local authorities already do this, using discretionary powers. I believe that this should apply right across Wales and intend to legislate accordingly.

Now, Members will be aware that the fiscal framework that was agreed in December 2016 included a commitment that a 105 per cent multiplier should be applied to all Barnett consequentials. That has resulted already in an extra £90 million for Wales, and £71 million of that is reflected in this budget.

Finally in this section dealing with how revenue is raised for the budget, I turn to the use of reserves. I explained to the Assembly last year that I intended to make maximum possible use of the new Wales reserve. Thanks to the close co-operation of my ministerial colleagues, I was able to take that reserve into the current financial year at very near its maximum of £350 million. As a result, I have been able to increase the planned draw-down from the reserve in 2019-20 from £75 million, as originally intended, to £125 million, releasing an additional £50 million for public services here in Wales.

Llywydd, protecting front-line services from the worst impacts of austerity continues to be at the heart of the budget of this Labour Government, and that includes, of course, the national health service. In July, the Prime Minister announced additional funding for the NHS in England to mark the seventieth anniversary of the health service. The headline claimed substantial extra funding for Wales. But, as we have learnt, it was always necessary to look beyond those headlines. We still do not know, Llywydd—the Treasury is still unable to tell us—exactly how much extra money Wales will receive. 

But this we do know: that almost half the money has already been spent by the UK Government before it even reached our borders. It must fund pay awards and pension changes—decisions made in Westminster and not in Wales. Nevertheless, taken together with the increase already planned, this draft budget now provides more than £0.5 billion additional for the health and social care system, to provide services for Welsh citizens and to support our long-term plan for a healthier Wales.

Llywydd, this Government recognises the pressures local authorities are facing, and we continue to do all we can to shield them from the worst effects of austerity. At the time of the final budget passed by this National Assembly in January this year, local authorities were facing a 1 per cent cash reduction in funding in the revenue support grant for next year—equivalent to a £43 million reduction. We have worked hard during the preparation of this budget to reduce that gap by more than £28 million, so that it now stands at less than £15 million in 2019-20.

At the same time, we have been able to restore funding to a number of grants and have made a series of other funding decisions from which local government will benefit, which together add up to £84 million. This approach is exemplified through the £13.4 million this budget restores to the early intervention, prevention and support grant. We have also listened carefully to stakeholders about the future of the grant and I can confirm this afternoon that it will appear in this budget as two grants, separating the housing-related elements from the remainder. Further details about these new arrangements will be available to Members tomorrow.

Llywydd, addressing child poverty is a key commitment across this Government. This budget contains a package of £12.5 million to tackle child poverty in Wales. This includes £2 million additional funding to expand the discretionary assistance fund, which is struggling to meet demand, largely as a result of the UK Government’s draconian programme of welfare cuts. That is money that goes directly to the poorest families here in Wales. It also contains more than £3 million to maintain and double the pupil development grant access scheme to help parents meet the everyday costs associated with sending their children to school. Here in Wales, we will provide £7 million additional funding as we move to provide thousands more children with free school meals.

Llywydd, I turn now to capital expenditure. The draft budget before Members today includes both revenue and capital additions to each departmental expenditure limit for 2019-20, including allocations over and above those announced in May of this year alongside the Wales infrastructure investment plan. I now set out the departmental expenditure limits across the Welsh Government.

As a result of today's draft budget, the total health and social services main expenditure group now stands at £8.2 billion, an increase of £330 million on previously published plans, including an additional £287 million for the health and social care system, and an extra £41 million in capital to support NHS improvements and the modernisation of the ambulance fleet.

The total local government and public services MEG stands at £5.4 billion, an increase of £123 million, including an additional £35 million in capital in support of the social housing grant, and £20 million for a local authority road refurbishment programme as part of £60 million over three years to repair the damage associated with a harsh winter and this year's hot summer.

The economy and transport MEG stands at £1.3 billion, an increase of £129 million, including capital funding of £26 million next year as part of a £78 million package for the local transport fund, and £10 million next year for the Tech Valleys programme.

The education MEG stands at £1.9 billion, an increase of £68 million, including more than £30 million additional funding for schools and a doubling of investment, as I said, in the PDG access fund.

The energy, planning and rural affairs MEG stands at £364 million, an increase of £34 million, including an extra £17 million in our waste programme, through a combination of both revenue and capital, and it will allow the Cabinet Secretary concerned to maintain funding for national park authorities across Wales.

Llywydd, as we move through these uncertain times and as the financial difficulties deepen, this Government remains committed to do everything we can to help our public services meet the very real challenges they face today. This is a bread-and-butter budget, focused on sustaining the fabric of Welsh life and using every source of revenue and capital available to us in order to do so. I commend it to Members this afternoon. 

Can I thank the Cabinet Secretary for his statement today, presenting his bread-and-butter budget? Perhaps more basic labels are a sign of things to come. If he is successful in his bid for the top job later this year, perhaps we can expect a beer-and-sandwiches budget in future. The anecdotes go on.

Can I also thank the finance Secretary and his staff, actually, for the briefing earlier today? It's always helpful in the budget-setting process, when time is limited. I should also thank you, of course, Cabinet Secretary, for the usual clamour of austerity. Where would we be without it, particularly on these benches? [Assembly Members: 'Oh.'] And to set—[Interruption.] And to set—[Interruption.] And to set the record straight—[Interruption.] And to set the record straight—[Interruption.] And to set the record straight, recent data on the shares of gross value added by the Office for National Statistics have shown that England is actually the only nation in the UK that has substantially reduced its deficit per capita, equivalent to £158 per person. Meanwhile, Wales has 27 times more borrowing per person, with a deficit of £4,251 per person. The UK Government is set to deliver a surplus budget for the first time since 2001, a £112 billion drop in borrowing since the financial crisis, but the Welsh deficit fell by just £2 billion in the same time. Doesn't that mean that it has been left almost entirely to England to close the budget deficit, and is that right? Can that possibly be right? So, rather than—[Interruption.] Rather than—[Interruption.] Rather than the usual—[Interruption.] Rather than the usual harsh words about austerity, perhaps you should look a little bit closer to home about what we're doing in Wales to deal with the financial problems that this country was left with by a previous Government.     

Of course, a key change to this budget is the fact that, from April next year, the Welsh Government will be in total control of approximately £5 billion of revenue generated from taxes, or a third of its current combined spending. So, to coin the words of Harry S. Truman, the buck truly will stop here. Alongside land transaction tax and landfill disposal tax, the Welsh Government will also have income tax-varying powers, as we were told, from April 2019. And can I welcome the Cabinet Secretary's commitment not to increase income tax in Wales before the next Assembly election? I must say I don't think that this is an entirely selfless decision on the part of the Welsh Labour Government. To increase taxes at the same time as we face the uncertainty of Brexit, and when the Welsh economy is still underperforming in relation to other parts of the UK, would be, at best, counterproductive and, at worst, disastrous for the Welsh economy, not to mention Welsh Labour's election prospects, of course.

I must ask the question, though—and the Cabinet Secretary was quite clear on this—can we assume that, if Welsh Labour were to form the Government after 2021, then we can expect pretty sharp increases in income tax at the various rates, and, if so, by how much? I think the people of Wales do deserve an answer to that.

As we know, there are risks with varying taxes; I know the Cabinet Secretary would agree with that himself. The Welsh Government-commissioned Welsh tax base report notes that

'there would likely be some behavioural response from...taxpayers'

should Welsh Government change income tax rates. This seems to be in stark contract to some of the assertions of the Welsh Government before Finance Committee that changes to taxation would not affect migration rates, so some clarity on that aspect of future tax policy would be appreciated. And I do support the Cabinet Secretary's decision to keep income tax rates as they are over the next couple of years, as we weather some of the storms that we're going to be facing.

If I can turn to the other taxes, the veteran taxes, if I can call them that, and the unusually good news about landfill disposal tax, now forecast to deliver £40 million to the Welsh budget rather than the original—£20 million, I think, was the original forecast. I suspect, Cabinet Secretary, you're right in your assessment that rather than waste tourism having gone through the roof over the past year—I haven't seen lorries of waste traversing up and down the M4 and the A55 in any greater quantities than they were before—the difference probably is due to the Welsh Revenue Authority collecting taxes over a smaller base and possibly doing so with the enthusiasm of youth. Whatever the reason—and perhaps there are lessons for tax collection across the border—it's important that Wales keeps this dividend, and I will also make that case strongly, as I believe you will as well.

Looking at the figures for the land disposal tax's bigger sister, the land transaction tax, it does look as though the opposite has been the case and there has been some drop-off in the amounts that were predicted to be collected for that tax, particularly at the higher rates. Could it be that the Welsh Conservative warnings about the effect of increasing rates at the higher end of this tax have come to pass? Now, I don't expect the Cabinet Secretary to rush to confirm this, at least not before 11 December, but if he could shed some light on this rather murky area, that would be illuminating to all of us. And, on the matter of reviewing those bands, the door should definitely be left open, particularly if there are changes to the English stamp duty land tax regime that deals with very high-end transactions by foreign nationals, although I do appreciate that the number of Russian oligarchs living in Blaenau Gwent is probably rather limited. Don't look this way, Minister Emeritus. [Laughter.]  

Okay. Turning to the all-important spending commitments, I welcome the news that the NHS is the top priority for the Welsh Government. I’m glad that the Welsh Conservative message has finally hit home after years of us saying—and Angela Burns saying—that the NHS should be properly funded, and not just in cash terms as in the past but in real terms that mean the proper protection of the health budget that we need to see. The NHS is the people’s priority and it should be ours as politicians too. If I can ask you about the seventieth anniversary NHS cash injection that has been promised in England, have you had discussions with the Treasury about what this will mean for Wales in terms of consequentials? The same question applies to the extra funding for social care, which it appears the UK Government is committing across the border. If we don’t know until pretty late what the sums are then surely it will make it difficult to make the most of that money in the coming financial year, when we would like to see it implemented. 

If I can turn to your comment on transport and motorists across Wales, we'll welcome the additional—I think it was £60 million that you pledged in funding for roads over a three-year cycle. I think we're all aware of the problems that local roads are facing and the shortage of funding in local authority gaps to deal with the problem. Two questions relating to this: will this extra cash be ring-fenced for roads, and, if local authorities are facing cuts to their RSG, which we know they inevitably are, then how will you ensure that road budgets will not be cut elsewhere and you will not, effectively, be giving with one hand and taking with the other?

You mentioned the fiscal framework. Along with you, I warmly welcome the apparent uplift in the Welsh budget due to that. It was limited, admittedly, but it's better than the position that we were in before, and I think it's to be welcomed that that agreement between you and the UK Government is now delivering for Wales and delivering—albeit modest in the early stages, it is delivering an uplift that will stand the Welsh budget and Welsh economy in better stead in the future. I'm delighted to hear of the success of that.

I'm also delighted to hear the announcement with regard to care leavers and removing them from council tax, putting that on a statutory footing. That is to be warmly welcomed, a great decision. I'm a little bit more concerned about your proposal to remove charitable rate relief from independent schools and private hospitals, not that I either attended an independent school or have private healthcare, I should point out. However, I would point out that my concern is more in relation to the state sector, because we know full well that the private sector takes some of the strain that otherwise might be borne by the state sector—[Interruption.] Well, it does. And, in that case, I just want to ask: what consultation are you having with that sector before finalising this decision to make sure that there will not be unforeseen consequences? I think that's important.

If I could just move to close by talking about the broader point about today’s budget—. It's called 'A Budget to Build a Better Wales', the latest in many titles we've had in many budgets over the years, which haven't always delivered exactly what they promised. There’s very little indication of how these draft budget proposals fit in with the Welsh Government’s programme for government, its longer term strategy, or indeed the future generations legislation, which we are all supposed to be paying great heed to. Now, I appreciate that planning has been complicated by the Brexit timetable leading up to next March and also, as you said, this is phase 2 of a two-year budget-setting process, but a budget should be more than just a tidying-up exercise; it should set out a pathway to the future and it should provide vision and ideas. Some more details on the development of the metro, for instance, and infrastructure projects would be welcome—and also the possibility of a north Wales metro as well. 

Now, perhaps, after 20 years in Government, a degree of malaise may well have set in or perhaps, Cabinet Secretary, you are holding back—[Interruption.] I wasn't looking at you, Alun. Perhaps you are holding back some of your best ideas until December; that's understandable. Whatever the reason, I think we would all appreciate more of a long-term plan and less of a knee-jerk reaction to spending pressures. That’s going to be particularly important in dealing with pressing issues, such as social care.

So, in conclusion, Presiding Officer, whilst Welsh Conservatives welcome aspects of this budget, such as the funding for the NHS and our transport infrastructure—those are much needed and to be welcomed—there are some very big question marks over this budget, this bread-and-butter budget, as you called it, which is on offer today, and I think the big question is: will it really be followed by jam tomorrow?

I'd like to thank the Cabinet Secretary for his statement today. This is the eighth budget, consecutively, that's been made in this place in the face of the austerity policies of the Westminster Government, and it's important that we bear that in mind as we start the scrutiny process. Society and people are suffering greatly because of the totally unnecessary and hard-hearted decisions taken by the Tories in Westminster to continue with cuts to public expenditure, despite all evidence showing clearly that the policy is failing, even measuring it against its own stomach-churning philosophy. The economy is not growing at the same rate as other economies because we are not investing. We are just seeing cuts upon cuts for ideological reasons, rather than a policy based on common-sense economics, and the situation is only going to get worse. Even Nick Ramsay has talked about the storms and uncertainty to come, and, of course, that has been clear since the vote to leave the European Union in 2016. Of course, the opposition in Westminster doesn't have the necessary solutions either. We are not going to create a socialist utopia on these islands by leaving the single market and the customs union. Of course, what we need to do as a nation is use the tools that we have and to insist that we have more economic tools at our disposal in order to grow our own economy and, ultimately, Llywydd, to build an independent nation in order to put an end to Tory control of our nation once and for all.

So, that's the background to this budget. Of course, this is the second year of the budgetary agreement, worth almost £0.25 billion over two years, between Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Government, and we are very pleased to see that some of these steps are giving a boost to important sectors already. For the very first time, medical students will be able to apply to study part of their degree in north Wales—that's £7 million in revenue. This will be a boost to Welsh students who want to qualify there and will be an important step in improving the situation in terms of a shortage of doctors, which is leading to long waiting times and an absence of local services, and is placing strain on the NHS workforce that has to fill those gaps.

I was pleased to see the Brexit portal being launched last week—after some delay, I have to note. This will be a valuable resource for Welsh businesses to help them to prepare for the UK's exit from the European Union. Other areas that benefit from the agreement include mental health, which, of course, is a Plaid Cymru priority—£40 million over two years—higher and further education, £40 million; the Welsh language, £10 million; and the arts sector, £4.4 million. In terms of capital expenditure, work is proceeding on the integrated health centre in Cardigan, and I look forward to visiting the site when the Plaid Cymru conference is held in that town this weekend. Also, work is being done to improve the route between north and south, and feasibility studies are being held on other projects, and those are in the pipeline, as was noted by the Cabinet Secretary earlier this afternoon.

Of course, on these benches, we don't agree with everything in the budget, which, of course, is why we will abstain on the vote. The truth is that we need far-reaching measures in order to tackle the economic slumber that our nation has been in for decades, rather than papering over the cracks. We are in favour of establishing an infrastructure commission with the powers to raise significant funds in order to invest in our infrastructure to encourage growth and create jobs. I'm pleased to be able to welcome the announcement today that the early intervention, prevention and support grant is to be safeguarded, as well as an assurance that steps are being taken to prevent specific sectors from losing out. Plaid Cymru is pleased that we safeguarded the Supporting People as part of this. But I have to say that I was disappointed to hear that you are proceeding with changes to the free school lunches for children programme. I accept that a higher number will qualify, but it's a cause of great concern that some families do face losing the right to free school meals. May I ask the Government to look again at this issue and to change its proposals, particularly if there is good news to come from the UK Government budget in the near future?

I would like to conclude by asking a few questions of the Cabinet Secretary. First of all, I congratulate the Welsh Revenue Authority for their success in raising more funds in terms of landfill disposal tax than the forecasts had predicted. May I ask the Cabinet Secretary what steps the Welsh Government will take to ensure that this funding does remain in Wales and that the Treasury doesn't try to claw it back to London? An important part of responsibility for taxation is that the Government gets the benefit of its success, so it would be a disgrace if the UK Treasury were to try to punish Wales for its own success. This is not their money, after all.

Secondly, can the Cabinet Secretary give us some details on the Welsh Government's plans in terms of investing the funds it receives in terms of financial transactions? Have you considered whether this funding, which needs to be invested in initiatives that provide an advance on investment, could be used in order to proceed with a Swansea bay tidal lagoon and similar projects, for example? I'm also pleased to see now that the Welsh Government has increased salaries for doctors and nurses—something that Plaid Cymru has been calling for for some time—but, could the Cabinet Secretary tell me whether there are any plans to raise the salaries of other workers in the public sector? Constituents have been in touch with me—and other Members, I'm sure—to say that the situation in the FE sector is critical, following a decade of below-inflation salary rises, and that this is having an impact on the standard of living of individuals working in that sector.

There's also great concern about the impact that any cuts to local government may have on non-statutory services. These services include leisure centres and community clubs that play an important role in keeping people healthy and preventing health problems. How will cuts like this accord with the Government's own objectives in terms of preventative steps before people become ill? We are spending more and more on treating illness, but less and less on preventing these problems from arising in the first place. I'd like to hear the Cabinet Secretary's comments on those issues.

To conclude, I welcome the intention to withdraw care leavers from the council tax system until they reach 25 years of age the length and breadth of Wales. Will there need to be some statutory or legal changes in order to achieve this, or is this something that can be done relatively swiftly? I also welcome the statement on the taxation charitable status of private schools and hospitals. Again, will there need to be any changes in the law to ensure that that policy is delivered, or does the Cabinet Secretary see this as something that can be implemented relatively swiftly? Thank you.

I'm grateful to the Cabinet Secretary for giving me advance sight of the main details of the budget. The Cabinet Secretary is a safe pair of hands, but that may largely be because he's constrained by the straitjacket of the block grant on the one hand, and by the limited nature of tax devolution to Wales and his own personal abnegation in failing to use the income tax powers for reasons that I fully understand and approve of in this financial year. So, although he's described this as a bread-and-butter budget, actually, what we're talking about here is more the crumbs that fall from the table than the slice of bread and butter—or perhaps bread and dripping would be a better description of it—that he mentioned. And that's no criticism of the Cabinet Secretary at all. I genuinely do think he is a safe pair of hands and has managed his task with great clarity and ability.

Indeed, we see some of the benefits of that, as mentioned in the statement—his ability in negotiating the fiscal framework, for example, with the chief secretary has produced some financial benefits for us that are much valued: £90 million, as the statement says, and £71 million in this financial year. He's to be congratulated, and I think has been congratulated, by all sides of this house on the way in which he handled those negotiations.

I also think that the Cabinet Secretary has done a good job in coping with the reduction of 1 per cent, the cash reduction, in the RSG to 2019-20, and managing to reduce the gap by £28 million to only £15 million. That remaining £15 million is obviously going to lead to problems to deal with, but, nonetheless, I do think that the Cabinet Secretary's ability to try to square the circle that he's faced with is producing those dividends.

I also approve strongly of some of the other elements that he mentioned in his statement, in particular, the child poverty agenda and the increased number of schoolchildren who qualify for free school meals. And I also support his decision on the early intervention, prevention and support grant to increase the amount paid and also to split it into two, because there has undoubtedly been a great, disconcerting period for those who think, having moved from a kind of hypothecated budget into one where these different grants are lumped together, that some people might lose out and get less than they otherwise would have done. So, I think that is a sensible move to slow down the process of change, and that will be warmly welcomed, I think, throughout Wales.

We can also, of course, welcome the increased spending on health. It's a fact that everybody is aware of that health inflation is higher than inflation nationally, and the needs of the population are going to increase with an increased ageing population and a lower number of people in active work. So, the cost of financing this is going to be an increasing problem in years to come. That's partly, I suppose, the increasing amounts that are available due to the UK Government's decision to increase the amount of money spent on the health service through its seventieth anniversary fund, but I don't think we should shower them with compliments on their achievement, because in the current financial year, the UK Government is only going to increase spending by 3.6 per cent, which is 0.1 per cent less than the average increase in health spending since 1948. So, actually, it's just more of the same and treading water rather than an unexpected bonus on top of everything else. The health Secretary said that the health and social services MEG is now £8.2 billion for 2019-20, so health is becoming an even bigger component of the Welsh Government's budget. The £330 million extra for this financial year is, of course, very welcome—although, as he rightly said, what's given on one hand is partly taken away on the other and about half the budget is already earmarked by the UK Government.

But the real elephant in the room here is not so much the funding available, but the continuing inability of many health boards to be able to manage their own budgets properly, and we've seen, this year, that there's a £360 million rolling deficit, which is up from £253 million in the previous year. Hywel Dda and Betsi Cadwaladr, in particular, are actually not improving to the extent that we would expect. The sums of money involved here, of course, are huge: Hywel Dda, £70 million to the beginning of April this year in deficit, and Betsi Cadwaladr up from £30 million to £36 million. So, against this background, the Cabinet Secretary has an unenviable task, I think, in trying to balance the books.

The environment budget this year hasn't suffered the cuts that it did last year. That's to be welcomed. Although, of the £34 million increase, £17 million, a half of it, is going to be spent on various waste projects, which would not be a priority of mine, because—and this is nothing to do with the issue of global warming in itself—I simply can't see the point of spending £17 million on sorting waste and being able to take out the plastic in Costa Coffee cups, for example, when the UK accounts for only about 2 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions, even if we accept the link between carbon dioxide emissions and global warming. Twenty-five per cent of all the plastic waste that is collected in the EU is exported to the far east and other places where their control measures are far inferior to what we have in this country and, indeed, in Europe generally. So, what we're actually doing is making the problem worse by collecting all this material and then exporting it to countries that throw it into rivers and landfill elsewhere. So, we're not actually contributing to the solution of the problem, even if you accept that there is a problem in the first place. So, that would certainly not be a priority of mine.

But the background mantra, of course, as always, is austerity. But, I think we should remind ourselves that this period of austerity—to which the Cabinet Secretary's statement itself actually gives the lie, because he refers to the inability of the Chancellor to meet his targets of deficit reduction on a serial basis. In 2007-08, the national debt stood at about £780 billion. This morning, at 10.15 a.m., I looked at the national debt clock, and it was £2 trillion or more. So, you can hardly describe this as a period of austerity when the Government has been running record deficits. I'm afraid it's a reality of life that if you don't live within your means, then suddenly the money runs out, and that's the problem with socialist Governments always, of course—that they run out of other people's money to spend.

The Labour Party under its current leadership has been a great admirer of President Chávez and President Maduro in Venezuela. Well, Venezuela this year has 1 million per cent inflation and they're now, instead of exporting oil, exporting people. So, the idea that you can carry on spending as though there's no tomorrow, forever and a day, is, of course, against the laws of nature and reality. Were we not constrained in the way that we are financially in Wales, as if John McDonnell, perish the thought, were ever to become the Chancellor of the Exchequer in the United Kingdom, he really would be able to follow the example of Venezuela, and then I think the Welsh Government would be in a pickle indeed. Then they would discover what the true meaning of austerity is.

At the end of the day, over a period of time, you have to balance the books and, in an inadequate way and a limited way, that's what the Conservative Government has been trying to do. If the Government had borrowed even more money, then the debt burden and its financing burden would have been even greater. This year, over £50 billion is going to be spent on debt interest, and even though the Bank of England has bought up a significant part of Government debt—therefore, in a sense, it's paying money to itself—we're still talking about £4-odd billion that could be spent on front-line services that is going in debt interests to third parties. So, eventually, as I say, you run out of money.

And, in due course, the Welsh Government will have the freedom and the discretion to use the devolved tax powers that it has. I hope it will use those not simply to push up the tax burden, but actually to try to transform the Welsh economy into an enterprise economy by reducing taxes and hence encouraging investment, encouraging enterprise, encouraging people to come and live in and work in Wales so that—what we all know we need to do—we can raise the tax base by raising the amount of wealth that is created in the Welsh economy in general. So, it's a choice that we will have to make in due course. It's been postponed now until the next Assembly. But, like Nick Ramsay, I hope that the Welsh Government, if it is going to prepare for being in Government in a few years' time, will actually change its approach to an enterprise economy and realise, at the end of the day, the wealth that is created is created by the people, not by Government. Governments spend money, but they can't spend it if it's not created.

I want to welcome the Cabinet Secretary's draft budget today, designed to sustain the fabric of Welsh life, and welcome the Cabinet Secretary's clear commitment to supporting our public services, embracing new tax powers and responsibilities. At the Assembly Finance Committee last week, we received a briefing from the Welsh Treasury and HMRC about the new Welsh rates of income tax that will come into force next April. I support your proposals for devolved taxes with this draft budget, noting, as I did earlier this year, that you've made land transaction tax the most progressive tax in the UK, which I very much welcome. And I'm sure you'll acknowledge and agree, as I do, with the IPPR Commission on Economic Justice's recent report, and support its recommendations about tax, and the need to spread wealth and ownership across our economy.

I think it is important to recognise that, after eight and a half years of unnecessary and damaging austerity and deep cuts to our public services, you've shown clearly how you have used our budget to help make Wales a fairer place. As a result, you have given a wide package of public investment in health, social care, housing and transport. But this couldn't have been done without the fact that you secured £90 million as a result of the fiscal framework, which you negotiated, and the use of £125 million out of our Welsh reserves. And that is a decision you have to make, showing your determination to fund those bread-and-butter key public services in Wales, which we so cherish, and the people of Wales require.

I welcome the increase of £0.5 billion to the Welsh NHS, reaffirming your policy to support health and social care, benefiting local government, including the £50 million for social care. And I just would say and question whether that shows that the Welsh Government is still funding far in excess in relation to funding for social care in England, particularly in integrating health and social care.

On capital, I welcome the £35 million for the social housing grant, demonstrating the Welsh Government's commitment to ensuring that we have affordable and social housing for people in housing need. But I'd like to clarify the allocation of financial transactions allocations, because, earlier this year, I welcomed the Welsh Government's funding for credit unions, following the recent update in the Wales infrastructure plan announcements. We've already seen the benefits of using financial transaction capital in this way, promoting social justice, supporting our credit unions, helping them to meet the challenging capital asset ratio requirements, to underpin the viability of credit unions in Wales. And I hope this will continue.

I'd also like to raise the issue of the impact of Brexit on your budget this year. Independent research now brings the Brexit bill to £500 million a week, and rising, and your statement has highlighted the chief economist's analysis, showing the impact of Brexit on people and households in Wales. Can you confirm that we have to use allocations from our constrained budget to meet the costs of Brexit to our public purse? For the £50 million European Union transition fund, and the cost of Welsh Government engagement, at every level—political, and official—what is the impact of Brexit on all those whom we support and serve in Wales, highlighting the negative effect on your budget making and responsibilities?

I want to conclude with a question about wider powers. You have embraced your new powers, as outlined today. We have a fiscal framework—you've negotiated, you've managed resources, both revenue and capital, in a way Nye Bevan would have welcomed, in the way that you recognise priorities and needs, as the hallmark of socialism, and the fact that you've been able to do that, against the backdrop of eight and a half years of that lost £4 billion budget that could be going into our public services. But I'd like, finally, for you to update me on negotiations for the powers that we need to support our economy, and are supported cross party, through the Silk commission, and indeed now the Welsh Affairs Select Committee, looking at air passenger duty, which should be devolved to Wales, has been devolved to Scotland and has been devolved to Northern Ireland. What is the progress, Cabinet Secretary, on those negotiations? Diolch.

I think this is a very skilful budget, under very difficult circumstances. We all have to note the £800 million that might have been available if we'd managed to maintain the amount of money that could have been expected in line with inflation, if the UK Government wasn't continuing to stick with this austerity programme, which is causing so much pain to so many of our citizens. I think those of us on these benches are particularly distressed at the rise in child poverty that has occurred since 2010. So, I particularly welcome the amount of money you've set aside for enabling more children to take advantage of free school meals. The £7 million across Wales is very important and also the extra over £3 million to maintain the pupil deprivation grant to enable families who are struggling to continue to enable their children to access education in the same way as everybody else.

I'm not surprised that, on the Conservative benches, Nick Ramsay questions the validity of removing the charitable status of private schools and hospitals, but I think it's really important that we have a level playing field, particularly as the training of teachers, nurses and doctors is done by the state on behalf of our citizens, and many of them are then poached by the private schools and hospitals who don't make any contribution to the training of these invaluable individuals. So, it's absolutely right and proper that they should make a proper contribution to the cost of the people they benefit from.

I do not share Nick Ramsay's anxiety that in a future Welsh Labour Government we will use our income tax raising powers. Scotland hasn't used them and they've had them since 1999. So, there's no particular reason to assume that that would be something that would genuinely be open to the Welsh Government, because it's so easy for people who would be able to simply go across the frontier to England in order to avoid these taxes. I'm much more interested in how we can improve the collection of land transaction taxes, because those are things that can't be avoided.

I'm interested in the money that the Cabinet Secretary has set aside both for capital investment in our waste disposal, as well as the income aspect of it, because I recently visited the Cardiff recycling centre to look at the amount of money that can be made out of properly recycling. Aluminium, for example, has a very high price at the moment; cardboard, a lesser price, but even so, it's a very valuable contribution to mitigating the cost of collecting people's waste. We absolutely have to continue to adhere to the principles of reduce, re-use, recycle. So, I'm wondering if you could say a bit more about the £15 million capital to improve our recycling ability, and whether you envisage that being carried out by a consortium of local authorities, rather than each local authority having to provide for their own, because it seems to me that's one of the ways in which can do these things more efficiently.

You will be aware, Cabinet Secretary, that there was a well-attended lobby at lunch time demanding that £20 per person be spent on improving our cycling routes. So, in line with the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015, and our obligations under that, I'd be grateful if you could indicate how you think that the additional money you are setting aside for both filling in potholes, which is incredibly important to anybody who cycles, but also for local transport plans, as well as active travel, how those three aspects are joining up improving the number of people who are able to benefit from cycling and walking without the threat of being run over.

Anyway, I congratulate you on your draft budget and look forward to exploring the detail further. 

Obviously, you made references—repeated to death—on austerity. What concerns did you raise when the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development issued a warning about the rise in the UK budget deficit in January 2004? Keynesian economics is often presented as an alternative to austerity. I don't know where your personal economics lie, but certainly your colleagues have quoted Keynes on a number of occasions. Of course, Keynes stated that deficit spending during a downturn as a tool of economic policy requires deficits outside a downturn to be avoided or at least kept low, to a percentage of GDP lower than the nominal growth rate, thereby enabling the debt-to-GDP ratio to fall. What concern, therefore, did you express when, instead, by delivering a policy then called 'an end to boom and bust', and increasing the deficit faster than the growth rate of the economy outside a downturn, the pre-2010 UK Government broke the economic cycle and handed a poisoned chalice to successor UK Governments? As every debtor knows, you can't start reducing debt until you’ve brought your expenditure below your income. Essentially if post-2010 UK Governments had reduced the deficit more quickly, there would have been bigger cuts, wouldn't there? But if they reduced it more slowly, exposing us to economic shocks, we'd have risked bigger cuts being imposed by the UK's creditors. Instead, Welsh Government budgets have been rising in real terms since 2016-17 by nearly £1 billion.

In your statement you refer to an additional £287 million for the health and social care system. Could you clarify the interaction between that and the breakdown, given the statement by local government in Wales that many of the services they provide, particularly social services, are preventative services that reduce pressures on the NHS? So, what consideration have you given to the financial benefit of thinking of those budgets in a preventative interrelationship?

Of course, spending public money is not just about how much is spent, but also how well it's spent. What consideration have you given, or are you giving, to the amount of spending per head available to the 22 local authorities? As I understand it, currently Monmouthshire is lowest, receiving £585 less per head than the highest, but even if you look to north Wales: Wrexham, eighteenth with £339 less; Flintshire, nineteenth, with £368 less per head than the best funded. We need to be looking at this, do we not, in the context of impact, because this funding formula has existed for almost two decades? I think it was 2000-01 when it was introduced to tackle inequalities, to tackle prosperity gaps, and yet those same inequalities and prosperity gaps still exist in the same areas. So, should we not be targeting this a little bit smarter in terms of budget decisions?

How do you respond to the voluntary sector leaders who told me last Friday that we now need preventative budgets that deliver real change? They asked, 'Why not invest in what works rather than always looking to do something differently, in real co-design and co-delivery, rather than consultation after design from above, which is still the norm, and commissioning to deliver top-down programmes, which, again, is still the norm?' How do you respond to the Auditor General for Wales who, in July's report, 'Guide to Welsh Public Finances', said:

'Co-production involves a recognition of the positive assets that individuals and communities offer public services. These can dwarf the limited financial resources available to the public sector. There is a challenge for public services to understand and work with those resources alongside the financial resources that are typically included in budgets'?

Now, you've personally made many statements showing your own commitment to that agenda, but it ain't happening, finance Secretary. Out there still is too much top-down decision making and protection of internal budgets at the cost of front-line services, with a consequent extra cost to statutory front-line services. How, therefore, are you ensuring delivery of the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014 Part 2 code of practice, which puts in place a system where people are full partners in the design and operation of care and support, giving people clear and unambiguous rights and responsibilities? That is what the legislation says, but still it isn't happening, and the consequence of that is that millions are being spent poorly rather than engaging with the body public in Wales and delivering smart.

Finally, on the reference you made to the early intervention, prevention and support programme, and the separation that we know the Housing Matters Wales campaigners have been calling for, but they've been calling for more than that, haven't they, Cabinet Secretary? They've been calling for ring-fencing, and they've been calling for the separated grant to specially protect Supporting People. So will the ring fence now be restored, and will the Supporting People budget be specifically protected as the campaign calls for? Thank you.

Diolch, Llywydd. I welcome the Cabinet Secretary for Finance's statement and the draft budget. As austerity continues, the amount of money needed to run our public services to the level the public want is not being provided. I'm sure the Cabinet Secretary will agree with me that austerity is not an economic policy but a political direction of travel. The Conservatives at Westminster want to reduce public expenditure and roll back state provision of services. And as the Cabinet Secretary said earlier today, that £4 billion to £6 billion are missing from our budget. What a different budget we'd have today with that extra £4 billion to £6 billion. I think that everybody would leave here much happier than we will.

I think that Neil Hamilton made a very interesting point—live within your means. Can I just say, the key point is: increase your means? That's called economic growth. What we've had is stagnation and, as such, we haven't increased it. That's why the deficit's gone up—it's because growth has been at best sluggish, at worst non-existent.

I have three questions for the Cabinet Secretary. One on transaction capital: has the Tory Westminster Government given any indication on changing the rules on its use? If not, can it be used as replacement capital for economic development support to private companies, and thus increase the discretionary capital expenditure available to the Welsh Government for things such as new schools, which everybody in this Chamber welcomes?

Secondly, is there any indication that the borrowing limit will be increased? Will bonds be made available? Whilst they would not be mine and I'm sure not the Cabinet Secretary's choice of means of borrowing, because they tend to be more expensive, what they've done and why local authorities like them—. You don't want to use them, but what you want them to do is to keep the public works loan board's lending levels low. When the public works lending board pushed their rates up, what happened was that we saw that people started looking at bonds, and all of a sudden the public works loan board's costs came down quite considerably. I think that this is really important.

Finally can I raise primary health, secondary health and social services expenditure? The auditor general, in about 2015, produced a report on medical interventions that do no good to the patient, estimated at that time at several hundred million pounds. This did not include expenditure where the operation was successful, but following hospitalisation, when the individual was no longer able to look after themselves and ended up in a nursing home.

The late Dr Julian Tudor Hart, who many of us knew, with others, identified expenditure on such things as reducing slightly raised blood pressure, which does no good in terms of health, but it's actually expensive. And can I remind the finance Cabinet Secretary, while health Secretary, you reported, on more than one occasion, on the different intervention rates for the removal of tonsils between two areas in the same health board. So, it's not a difference between health boards—it's basically the difference between two surgeons. You're twice as likely to have your tonsils removed in one than the other.

The Royal College of General Practitioners regularly identify the relative reduction in primary care expenditure. And I have concerns about the fact that secondary care takes priority over primary care. The Nuffield Foundation produced research showing that productivity in hospitals in Wales, in terms of patient-per-doctor intervention, had reduced between 2003 and 2013.

Social care is under huge pressure, especially elderly care and support for children. I understand that support for children has gone up by 100 per cent over the last 10 years. And we also know that elderly care is continuing to increase. Many of us think it's a good thing—we all want to live longer, don't we? But it does come with a cost, and that is falling, almost exclusively, on local authorities.

I'm very pleased that from being a lone voice supporting improving health by dealing with factors such as obesity and smoking that lead to ill health, there is now a lot of support for preventative action. In fact, we had Steffan Lewis talking about preventative action earlier, and I hope we'll get more people talking about preventative action. Having somebody in hospital being operated on, in many cases, is a sign of failure, not success. The sign of success is them not ending up there in the first place. I think our aim has got be to increase health rather than increase health expenditure or health interventions.

So, I welcome the budget, I think that it's the best that can be done. Could we have the £4 billion to £6 billion we should have? And then both the Cabinet Secretary and most Members in this room will be very, very happy. We're not going to get that, and under very difficult circumstances, I commend the Cabinet Secretary for his budget.

Thank you very much for your statement, Cabinet Secretary. I wonder if you could help me out, please, when I'm asking some questions about education and the relationship between the education main expenditure group and some of the other department expenditure lines? Obviously, it's very pleasing to see the £60 million extra for education. It still falls a little short of the £100 million that we were expecting for school standards over the period, but I also see there's £30 million additional funding for schools. The majority, of course, of schools' core funding comes from local authorities, though. I have to say, within my own region, when I'm visiting schools and actually other services, the two main complaints I get about funding are schools specifically—so it's not education generally but schools specifically—and social care, which actually Mike Hedges has picked up on as well.

I can see that there's been an increase in the local government and public spending MEG, but, of course, that's not just the RSG and it doesn't explain either where schools' core funding is within that £123 million and how that can be protected, whilst at the same time avoiding ring fencing. It's particularly important, I think, because, of course, when the Welsh Government in the last Assembly proclaimed that it had obviously added extra money for school protection, the majority of that money actually came from local government, which was already being squeezed, rather than from the central education budget.

So, if you can explain to me a little bit about how schools' core funding is being looked after in that growth, I'd be very pleased, particularly because the primary legislation that deals with the funding formulas, if you like, for school funding are 20 years old now, and even the regulations beneath that are eight years old. So, there's a wider question for me, perhaps for another day, about whether that whole structure needs looking at anyway. 

The relationship with the Welsh language budget and the Welsh language education budget—obviously, we've had an announcement fairly recently of a capital increase, but bearing in mind that the Welsh Government's emphasis is going to be now on Welsh language education, not just Welsh-medium education—although we all note the difficulties there with getting young people involved in teachers' training for that—where are the Welsh language aspirations, shall we say, met? Because there was no reference to Welsh language in any of the speech that you gave today. 

Finally, the relationship with the health budget—it's obviously very pleasing to see some growth there, but as teachers and staff in schools are being asked to take on more responsibility regarding looking after children's pastoral requirements, their mental health in particular, does that increase in the health budget have a tiny little piece carved out, even if it's not formally, for improving school budgets, and would that count towards a school's core budget or would it be considered as an exterior income stream, if I can put it like that? Because obviously I'd be worried that, if there's any money going from health that then finds its way into the RSG where it gets no protection, it could get lost, despite the benevolent decision to use health spending to help schools improve the well-being of young people. Thank you.

In the continuing difficult financial landscape, Cabinet Secretary, can I welcome your statement, which I think is certainly as good as we could expect in the current circumstances? There's certainly lots to absorb and comment on, but I want to just briefly focus on three areas, if I may. And forgive me if I am repeating some of the points that have already been covered, but I guess that there will be reiterations, so bear with me. 

Firstly, Cabinet Secretary, as others have said, you've acknowledged the impacts that austerity have on the social fabric of our communities across Wales and that they cannot be underestimated. In constituencies like mine, I see it every single day and something has to change. So, after these long-wasted years of austerity, and given that the UK Government now seems to have found the magic money tree to fund the fiasco that is Brexit, do you see any signs that the Chancellor will acknowledge the need for a change in direction in order to meet the calls for more investment to help our public services? Because, as a Welsh Government, much of what you deliver must come via these budgets, and it's based on our 2016 manifesto, so it's important that we continue to deliver on those promises. 

My second point relates to the Supporting People programme, which has not just been supported by Plaid Cymru but by many Members on these benches, including me, many of us who have taken a keen interest in and campaigned for the financial support that we offer to many vulnerable groups through this programme. So, I'm very pleased with your announcement of £13.4 million to the early intervention, prevention and support grant and the establishment of the two grants, separating housing out from the others. Can I join others in asking whether you can now confirm that this will result in ring-fenced support to those often in the most desperate need of housing and housing support, so that Welsh Government priorities for the most vulnerable will be delivered in the way that your Government intended it to?

And finally, it's very clear that if we are to continue transforming our health and care services, then we must invest in preventative, community and primary care services, and we cannot allow artificial and organisational barriers to impede the funding and delivery of services that we need. So, I'm pleased that your announcement is looking at health and social care in the round, because we should be looking at more innovative ways of funding both health and social care services to ensure that current and future demand can be met. So, can you also assure me that the budget process will continue to drive the integration and innovation between health and social care, ensuring that those vital care services can continue to be delivered in our communities?   

I welcome the draft budget and congratulate the Cabinet Secretary on producing this budget in the ninth year of austerity, because I think we all know how families, particularly families with children, have struggled these last few years. So, I particularly welcome the help for children and families that many Members have referred to today—school meals and school uniforms. It is so difficult for families to cope with the demands and this is real practical help, and I do appreciate the fact that the Cabinet Secretary has made these improvements. Again, along with the others, I welcome the fact that all care leavers will now not pay the council tax until they are 25 years old, and I congratulate those local authorities who have used their discretionary powers to bring this in earlier, because I think this does show foresight and shows care for children who have been under the care of the state. Cardiff Council, my local authority, is one of those that has used the discretionary powers to do this.

I wanted to mention a few other points that I particularly welcome. I welcome the restoring of the funding for the national parks, because I think the national parks are so important for us here in Wales, and I think we all know that health is so linked with being able to enjoy the environment. A visit to a national park is maybe as good as a visit to a doctor, and I'm sure Mike Hedges would approve of that. [Laughter.]  

I also wanted to mention—it's a small amount of money, but I think it's very important—the improvements to Llangrannog and Glan-llyn. One of my grandchildren is actually at one of those establishments now as we speak, and I know how many children have such a huge benefit from them. I think it's an absolutely fantastic experience for children to go there, so I welcome the fact that they are going to have these opportunities.

I wanted, finally, to ask the Cabinet Secretary about how the Welsh mutual investment model is going, which I believe was actually created by my colleague Jane Hutt, when she was the finance Minister, to fund the building of the new Velindre? I know the Cabinet Secretary will be aware that there's now planning permission for the new Velindre in the Top Meadows in Whitchurch, with access through Asda, and the negotiations are ongoing, but we will end up with a brand-new cancer hospital linked with much more treatment for cancer patients in the community, and I think we are all very pleased and proud that this is going to happen. So, could he say how the Welsh mutual investment model is being developed?      

The Minister for finance to reply to the debate—or rather the Cabinet Secretary for Finance, I apologise. 

Diolch yn fawr, Llywydd. Well, an enormous number of detailed questions. I thank Members very much for their close engagement with the budget statement this afternoon and, of course, I look forward to the period of detailed scrutiny that the budget will now receive. Just to say again, Llywydd, that we are following the two-stage process in the budget. A number of questions that Members have raised will become clearer in three weeks' time when we lay the budget at below-MEG level. I’ll do my best to answer as many questions as I can as briefly as I can.

Nick Ramsay began by asking, 'Where would we be without austerity and Brexit?' and, on cue, my colleague Julie James returns—because she gave him the answer loud and clear: we’d all be a lot better off; that’s where we would be without austerity and Brexit. He quoted Harry Truman to us. I’ll just remind him of something else Harry Truman said: society will be judged by how it treats its weakest members. And that’s what this budget is all about. It is about taking the resources that we have, constrained as they are, and then investing those resources where they will make the greatest impact in the lives of those people who depend the most upon the services that public authorities provide.

Let me thank the Member for what he said in welcoming what we are doing in relation to care leavers and for the recognition that he gave to the impact of the fiscal framework, which he has always taken a very close interest in. Let me answer a few of the specific questions that he raised. As far as the £60 million that is announced in the budget for road surface repair, it is indeed ring-fenced. It’ll go through a specific grant. It has no impact on the RSG because, as Nick Ramsay will see when more detail is available, it’s capital that we are providing in that £60 million grant rather than the revenue that goes through the RSG. He made a point about future income tax rates. All parties will be able to set out proposals in manifestos in advance of the next Assembly elections as to how the powers that are available to the Assembly would be used were they to get their hands on them.

And, as to his questions about a more detailed sense of the budget, that will come when we lay part 2 of the process, in three weeks’ time. We will have an opportunity, I hope, to talk about social care. I hear a rumour that the Chancellor intends to publish a Green Paper on social care on the same day as he announces his budget on 29 October, but we were told that that Green Paper would be there last year; we were told it would be here in the summer; now we’re told it’ll be here on 29 October. Well, wouldn’t it be good if that turned out to be the case?

May I say that I appreciate what Steffan Lewis had to say about the context that we faced as we drew up this particular budget? It is an extremely difficult context. Of course, Steffan Lewis suggests that independence would be the solution to all of these issues. I don’t think that we can agree on that on the Government side of the Chamber.

In terms of what he said on free school meals, I don’t quite understand his comments, if truth be told. We’re going to provide greater funding. Very many pupils will qualify for free school meals in our schools as a result of this funding, and we are going to provide cohort protection, as Kirsty Williams has described it. If you start under the regulations that we currently have, then you will retain that system until you go to secondary school or until you conclude your time in school.

I appreciate what Steffan Lewis had to say about LDT and the funds that we have been able to draw in in the first quarter of the current financial year, and of course I agree with what he said: this is money for Wales, not money that should go back to the Treasury, and the reason I say that is because we are drawing funding in, in my view, because of the work that the WRA is doing, focusing on the situation in Wales and succeeding in bringing in those funds in that way.

We are aware of issues in further education, but they haven’t concluded their discussions on staff in the next financial year. Just to say, in terms of what Steffan had to say, we will have to make changes to the law so that we have clarity across Wales, that care leavers will be withdrawn from liability for council tax, and I think the same is true if we do proceed with the proposals I made on private schools and hospitals, but we will need to consult with people on our proposals in those areas.

Turning to what Neil Hamilton said, I thank him too for what he said about the fiscal framework and those aspects of the draft budget, the free school meals and the treatment of the mega grant that he welcomed as well. I didn't agree with him, of course, on what he said on the £15 million in relation to waste capital. I think that will be money very well spent. We know that if we are able to invest in some new, state-of-the-art equipment local authorities will be able to recycle things that, today, they can't. Today, they go to landfill. With the new equipment in place, those local authorities will be able to do more in this field. That was the persuasive case that my colleague, Lesley Griffiths, put to me during the budget preparation period, and I've been very glad to be able to recognise the strength of the case that she made. Mr Hamilton quoted a figure from the period when Gordon Brown was Chancellor, and pointed out that, when Gordon Brown was Chancellor, he was reducing the deficit year after year, and then pointed to the fact that it had ballooned out of control under the current Conservative performance, but he then tried to say that this was the result of a socialist experiment; I did lose my ability to follow his argument there. But where he gets it wrong is the point that Mike Hedges made: for Neil Hamilton, all expenditure is essentially wasteful, whereas, if you believe in the socialist way of doing things, expenditure is an investment. It creates the conditions in which the economy can expand, and, when the economy expands, so there is a greater flow of revenues in from that expanded economy, and that's the way in which you are able to create a benign cycle rather than the cut-your-way-to-success that we've been offered since 2010 and which has so transparently failed to deliver.

Jane Hutt made a very important reference to the IPPR report and what it tells us about how fair taxation can improve economic performance across the UK economy. I'm very grateful to her for what she said about Nye Bevan. Bevan said that the language of priorities is the religion of socialism, and, in this budget, you see our effort to align the expenditure that we have with the priorities that matter to us most here in Wales. I'm grateful to Jane for drawing attention to the £35 million we are able to replace in the social housing grant. It's one of the things I'm most pleased about in the budget, that we will be able to sustain the investment we make as a Government in that most important thing of providing decent housing for families across Wales who today find themselves living in circumstances that none of us would be prepared to regard as satisfactory in our own lives.

There is financial transaction capital reflected in the budget, but there will be more, I hope, at the final budget stage. I'm working closely with my colleague, the water-throwing Ken Skates—sorry, I'm sure he was trying not to draw attention to that—[Laughter.]—to bring forward a series of financial transaction capital ideas that his department is particularly developing in an innovative way. We are having to use our own budget for the EU transition fund, but we have been able to put £140 million of financial transaction capital into the Welsh investment bank, which is being used particularly to support businesses through the EU exit.

On negotiations on powers for air passenger duty, I'm afraid I've only got bad news to report to colleagues. It is very good that the Welsh Affairs Select Committee has announced its inquiry into this, because it will allow us to make our case yet again as to why Wales should not be uniquely disadvantaged in not being allowed to have air passenger duty devolved to us, but I have a letter from the Secretary of State for Wales addressed to the First Minister only a few days ago, and, once again, the Secretary of State for Wales tells us that he cannot support this idea because he's more worried about England and about the impact of it there—by the way, an impact that independent reports that we have supplied to him tell him does not exist. But he is more worried about his responsibilities to Bristol than he is about his responsibilities to Wales, and that is very deeply disappointing.

Very briefly, Llywydd, if you don't mind—I've got a minute to respond to just a few selected points from what other Members have raised. In what Jenny Rathbone said, let me focus on what she said on active travel. We announced £60 million earlier in the year, £10 million this year, £20 million next year, and £30 million the year after, directly for active travel. But the £78 million local transport fund and the £60 million for road repair, plus what we're doing on clean air and the money we're providing to local authorities in capital and revenue to improve traffic in that way—all of those will, I believe, contribute to our active travel agenda.

Mark Isherwood told us about Maynard Keynes and, of course, Keynes is a counter-cyclical way of dealing with the economy, not as his Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne carried out his responsibilities. He always seemed to me to be like a medieval doctor, really: you bled the patient and, when the patient showed even greater signs of illness, the only answer was to bleed the patient some more. That's exactly the opposite of Keynesian economics. I'm sure it must feel to some Members like I have been standing here for more than a decade, but Mr Isherwood's questions of how I responded to something that was said in 2004—. It was a finance Minister well beyond my own time who was responsible for that. I share, however, what he said on co-production; there's a long way still to go, and it is for our public services to mobilise the human capital that comes from users of services, alongside the financial capital that they have, to make a real difference.

Mike Hedges asked me a series of specific questions. The Treasury has changed the rules in relation to financial transaction capital in England. They are not, as yet, able to tell us how those changed rules apply here in Wales. I have written to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury asking to extend our borrowing capacity in the forthcoming comprehensive spending review and we are well on our way, now, to having bond-issuing powers here in Wales.

Suzy Davies's questions about education and Welsh-medium education will emerge more clearly in the second part of the budget, but I can tell her that amongst the education aspects are £15 million in a new specific grant that will go directly to schools from my colleague Kirsty Williams's budget, together with £9 million to deal with sixth-form funding and £9 million to sustain the grant for minority ethnic achievement.

On the funding formula, a number of Members have asked me about the funding formula in local authorities and in education. I say to them what I say to my colleagues in local government: if anybody can bring me an improved formula on which local authorities are agreed, they will find me very receptive to that. As yet, they've never been able to meet that challenge. Can I say to Dawn Bowden that, if there is any sign of change in the 29 October budget of the Chancellor of the Exchequer in relation to austerity, we will use every penny of that, as we did last year, to invest in preventative services and, as she said, to make sure that organisational barriers do not stand in the way of achieving best outcomes for patients and for social care user services? My colleague Vaughan Gething and I have met twice during this budget round to reaffirm this Government's determination to use the resources we have to invest in the social care and health system in the round. As Members will see the detail of the budget, they will see that reflected in it.

Finally, Llywydd, to respond to Julie Morgan's points, going to Llangrannog is a Welsh rite of passage that many of us across this Chamber will have experienced in our own lives and in the lives of others and I'm very glad that, working with Eluned Morgan, we've been able to find some additional money to upgrade the facilities both there and at Glanllyn.

As far as the mutual investment model is concerned, we now have complete clearance from Eurostat and the ONS. Our model has been featured in a recent United Nations handbook, advising countries around the world as to how to design a model of this sort, and I was pleased to see the reference that the First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, made to building on the Welsh mutual investment model in the Scottish Government's plans to expand the level of capital available for important public purposes there too.

We are well on our way in relation to Velindre. There are planning issues to resolve. There are clinical design issues to resolve. But we are determined that the model will be there to support that very important development for cancer services across south-east Wales. 

Thank you to the finance Secretary. Item 4 has been withdrawn.

Therefore, the next item is a statement by the Minister for Children, Older People and Social Care, in celebration of older people's day. I call on the Minister to make the statement. Huw Irranca-Davies.

Thank you, Presiding Officer. Yesterday was the International Day of Older Persons, and communities across Wales joined together to recognise and celebrate the many and varied contributions that older people make to society and the Welsh economy.

As, this year, the celebration aligns with the seventieth anniversary of the universal declaration of human rights, I would like to take this opportunity to update Assembly Members on the work that Welsh Government is taking forward to place human rights at the heart of Welsh public services, and to make Wales the best place in the world to grow old. Growing older should not erode an individual’s human rights. Wales has a long history of working with and for older people, from the introduction of the first strategy for older people in Wales in 2003 to establishing the world’s first older people’s commissioner in 2008, and this commitment to improving lives for older people continues today.

Earlier this year, we started a new programme of work to reinvigorate our focus on older people’s issues. We are working closely with the older people’s commissioner and with older people directly and their representatives to co-produce a framework for an ageing society. A key strand of this work aims to make rights real for older people, and we've established a stakeholder group; we've convened to consider the steps needed to achieve this very aim. Raising awareness of human rights can empower older people to play an active role in ensuring the care that they receive upholds their fundamental right to be treated with dignity and with respect. However, we must also raise awareness of human rights among the public bodies and the organisations that work with older people every day.

The Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014 came into force in April 2016. The Act provides the legal framework for improving the well-being of people who need care and support, and it requires local authorities to have due regard to the United Nations principles for older persons. Simply referencing the principles is not enough; 'due regard' means that local authorities must actively consider how the duties impact on the decisions they make every day. Hence independent advocacy services, for example, can give a voice to people, helping to ensure that their views, their wishes, are represented when making choices about their own lives. They are important for supporting people to engage actively and to participate in the development of their own well-being outcomes. And advocacy for all persons is embedded within the SSWB Act 2014. My officials have been working with a technical stakeholder group to set the standards for children and for adult services through the Regulation and Inspection of Social Care (Wales) Act 2016, which we know as 'RISCA'. We're also updating the Part 10 code of practice on advocacy, to provide practical guidance on how rights can be made real for older people accessing advocacy. 

One of the five themes of the United Nations principles for older persons is independence. The integrated care fund, the ICF, promotes a human rights-based approach, by supporting older people to maintain their independence and continue to be part of their community. So, for example, the acute response team—the ART—based at the Prince Philip Hospital in Llanelli provides a 24-hour rapid response service for frail older people who would otherwise require admission to hospital. The team work in partnership with a range of other ICF initiatives to facilitate integrated and person-centred care for individuals in their own homes. This allows them to remain within their communities and to continue in their day-to-day lives without the interruptions of visiting hospitals for treatment and to experience better health outcomes as a result.

Participation is also a theme within the UN principles. I recognise that Government must ensure that the infrastructure is in place to support people to remain active and engaged. So, local transport services, community facilities such as public toilets, and places to meet make a tangible difference to the lives of older people. They are integral to creating vibrant and cohesive communities. And reducing levels of loneliness and social isolation among people of all ages is a key priority for Welsh Government. In 'Taking Wales Forward 2016-2021', we confirmed our commitment to developing a nationwide, cross-Government strategy to tackle these issues by March 2019. And funding of £750,000 in 2018-19 and in 2019-20 has been agreed to develop this cross-Government approach.

The current public debate about loneliness and its impact on both physical and mental health strikes to the very core of our society. It questions how we care for and support each other. For those of us growing older, the loneliness debate can sharpen our focus on how we will spend our time when we stop working. People of all ages should be encouraged to plan for their future, not just financially, but to consider the social networks they will need to age well. We should all question what we will expect our communities to offer us in later life and how we can start building those communities right now. By volunteering, caring for loved ones or by being a valued member of their local community, older people, let's be clear, form the backbone of our society. As Minister for Children, Older People and Social Care, I will play an active role in combatting ageist and corrosive stereotypes of older people. If we continue to view old age negatively, we will not be successful in creating a society that supports all older people to enjoy a life that has value, and meaning, and purpose.

Celebrating older people’s day can encourage people of all ages to look forward with positivity and to embrace growing older. My aim is to make Wales the best place in the world to grow old, and I look forward to working with key stakeholders, the older people’s commissioner and, most importantly, older people themselves, to realise this aim. Thank you very much. 

I do thank you, Minister, for your words, and I, too, on behalf of the Welsh Conservative group, absolutely support the ambition to enhance our older people's rights through the raising of awareness and, more, to see this aim manifested in real policy improvement. I have the immense privilege of serving Wales's older people twice over, both as the Welsh Conservative older people's champion and also in my capacity as the Assembly Member for the beautiful constituency of Aberconwy, possessing as it does the highest number of over-65s in Wales. 

It is on this basis that I know at first hand the immense benefit that our older people bring to communities the length and breadth of Wales. It is so often Wales's older and, I reckon, wiser generation that forms the bedrock of our voluntary associations, altruistically devoting their post-retirement years for the benefit of the charitable sector. Moreover, it is undoubtedly the community-mindedness of this age group also that keeps our local infrastructure ticking over, taking on the responsible task of securing improvements in our neighbourhoods and communities that they and we live in and that they care about. We often underestimate the value this population bring in reducing pressure on our state-run services, providing perhaps the largest free childcare service to hard-working parents across Wales.

Now, I was privileged, over the past seven years, to work with Sarah Rochira, our outgoing older people's commissioner, and I am aware that she will be a tough act to follow. But having said that, I am greatly looking forward to working closely with our new older people's commissioner, Heléna Herklots CBE, who I will be delighted to welcome to the second of my own 'ageing well' events for my constituents in November. I have every confidence that her extensive background, advancing older people's rights with Age Concern and Carers UK, will steer policy to ensure that our society does even more to enhance the rights and entitlements of older people. I have been delighted to see the celebrations of these throughout international older people's day, and hope that we can do even more every day to enhance these.

We all know of the dangers that ageism can present to the rights of older people in the workplace. The Business Wales employers guide is a positive step towards combatting such attitudes in our economy, but can you tell me further: what further funding is being introduced for the retraining of older people across the piece, and for people from various backgrounds, so that they can continue making such a vital contribution to our economy? We always talk about loneliness and social isolation; what is better than getting people back into work where they can meet their peers and their working comrades? That to me is a two-edged sword that, really, we need to be using in their favour. So, I thank you again, Minister, and I look forward to working with you as we proceed in this regard. Thank you.

My apologies. I didn't expect to be on my feet quite so rapidly, but I'm happy to be. Janet, can I thank you very much for that contribution, and welcome your role as well as your party's champion for older people? You rightly emphasise once again the role of older people as an asset in our society, in their volunteering, their provision of care themselves, as carers, including, of course, in childcare—as we see now, curiously, as we roll out the children's care offer. Actually, we're going into communities where, very often, it's the grandmothers and the aunts and uncles who are providing large elements of childcare as well. They are definitely an asset, and we need to celebrate this and talk about this far more, because too often, not only in the media but in common parlance, we use those negative stereotypes about a burden, the complexities of old age, the impact on the health service. Well, yes, we recognise that. There is a joy in growing old and in what you can contribute when you're growing old. It does bring complications, and it brings a need for us to provide the right care and support, but, my goodness, it is outweighed far by the contribution you make to society and to your communities. I say that as somebody who is happily and joyfully growing older myself—not necessarily wiser, but older.

Thank you as well for the welcome that you've given to Heléna Herklots, the new appointee taking over from Sarah in the role of older people's commissioner. I've met Heléna at a couple of events already, including a recent event in Carmarthenshire, specifically looking at our strategy that we're bringing forward on loneliness and isolation, and I think she welcomes the work we're doing.

But you also paid tribute in recognition of the work of the outgoing commissioner, of Sarah Rochira. The role of the commissioner is to challenge and to push Welsh Government to do more, and that's the right role for any commissioner, whether it's future generations, children's commissioner, and so on. But there's also—. I have to say, I welcome the really constructive engagement that we've had, where they've pushed, and we've said, 'Well, this is how far we can go now, and where we can go in the future.' And we left in place, I have to say—which I'm looking forward to discussing with Heléna as we take it forward—some real action planning around how we can make practical realisation of rights, as opposed to drafting endless new pieces of law and regulation: How do we make it bite on the ground?

So, we're working already with the older people's commissioner on embedding the rights of older people across a range of policy portfolios. Building on the Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act legislation, we're actually bringing forward, in co-production now, practical guidance that demonstrates how to make the UN principles real in reality for older people, where the initial work in that area is focusing on commissioning and on safeguarding and on advocacy, which I mentioned earlier on—these are the areas we need to get really right if we're to support our older people to have a real voice and control over their health and social care. I mentioned that we're updating the 2009 guidance on escalating concerns within care homes, making rights real once again, and embedding human rights in Welsh Government impact assessment processes as well. We're also looking, with Care Inspectorate Wales, at building the narrative of human rights into care home inspection reports as well, and health boards referencing the principles in the quality statements that they produce annually. And we look at other aspects as well.

But this is what it's about: it's giving real voice and control to older people by not—. We often think here, if we legislate, we do something. No, it's taking the legislation we have, working with the older people's commissioner, working with older people themselves and representative organisations to find the way that we make it dig deep and bite in day-to-day reality. So, I welcome those comments, and the celebration that you've made as well of the contribution of older people to our society.

May I thank the Minister for his statement this afternoon? Naturally, we welcome the fact that we are celebrating International Day of Older Persons and the fact that the Minister has confirmed personally the commitment of the Welsh Government to the human rights of older people, and his vision of making Wales the best place to grow old.

There are a number of legislative documents and policies in Wales that say the right thing in terms of supporting older people. The Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014, for example, as we have already heard, was an innovative Act in terms of its objectives, but experience at the grass-roots level in Wales means that we do have a long way to go before we can say that Wales genuinely is the best place in the world in which to grow older.

The older people's commissioner, Age Cymru, Carers Wales, and a host of other organisations have stated clearly the concerns that they have in terms of how services are provided on the ground. The message is clear: legislation and policy statements are all well and good, but we do need to see progress on the ground in terms of the support that's available to older people, and also progress in the support and the genuine right to receive services through the medium of Welsh when engaging with dementia care, for example, where Welsh speakers with dementia, as you'll be aware, lose their second language first—namely English—and can only then communicate through the medium of Welsh because of the effects of dementia.

So, what is it like to live in Wales as an older person today? We hear of concerns around service delivery on a weekly basis, despite the provisions within the social services and well-being Act and despite the best efforts of the older people's commissioner and others. We hear of older people not receiving carers needs assessments, for example; we hear of older people seeing their day centres closed by local authorities; we hear of the huge numbers of older people feeling lonely and isolated, as the Minister has said; and we hear of older people having to pay extortionate fees to gain domiciliary or residential care. We hear of older people not receiving respite services and in desperately difficult situations. It's clear that there's a long way to go if you are to realise your ambition of making Wales the best place in the world to grow old. So, to just wrap up my comments on the statement.

What, therefore, needs to be done? Well, at heart, we need to think about the values that we have as a society, and we need to develop a national conversation about what it means to care, how we perceive older people, and how we empower older people to live full lives. As a party, we've established a national care commission to consider this issue carefully, and to look to rearrange this entire system, and to establish a national care system. Details of that will follow.

As the party's spokesperson for social care, I'm determined to place social care and older people at the heart of political debate. What's clear, however, is that the legislation and the policy documents alone won’t be able to deliver the change that we need to see. If we want to see genuine progress in this area, then we'll need resources as well to achieve this vision. So, Minister, what certainty can you give to older people in Wales, as well as warm words and laudable policy objectives, that the funding, the resources and the essential workforce will be available in the coming years as we try to ensure improvements in the way that we support older people here in Wales? Thank you very much.

Diolch, Dai. It's interesting that one of the aspects you mentioned there was the talk around a national care service or a national care system. It seems in some ways to be very much the flavour of the moment here, talking about how we take forward an approach to care that builds on the approach that we've done back in the post-war years around the health service. It's quite interesting. Of course, you'll be aware that the approach we're currently taking under 'A Healthier Wales', the long-term plan for health and social care, is to bring the two spheres together. I think it's something that the original architects of the national health service, were they alive today, would look at and would recognise as an imperative, so that, for older people and others, they have something that feels genuinely seamless, that they are picked up when they need it and they are helped to live independently with seamless care, integrated care, around them at home.

We see so many good examples. I was in north Wales yesterday looking at excellent examples: the teams that are working out of Wrexham Maelor Hospital, the Cwm Taf reablement teams, the stay well at home teams. There's more and more of this. We're actually putting the money into that, Dai, as well. So, you're asking about resources. There are a number of ways we do this, not least through the ICF funding, and we've announced an additional £80 million into intermediate care funding this year to drive those sorts of initiatives. Yes, we have changed the ICF slightly—I think rightly—to also include, for example, how we find creative solutions to provide for the needs of children with complex needs and so on. But, the main focus was, and continues to be as well, on the needs of our ageing population and how we best provide that.

So, we are, even in constrained times—as laid out by the finance Secretary just now—we are trying to find that money to drive innovation, but it's more than that. What 'A Healthier Wales' shows us as well, building on the cross-party support for the parliamentary review that preceded it, was that actually this has to become core. So, part of a healthier nation is backed by £100 million of transformation funding, which is not designed to replicate what's going on within ICF, so, lots of 'Let a thousand flowers bloom'; it's to take some of those flowers that are blooming and say, 'How do we make sure that it happens not just in one place but across a region?' And if we can lift it up to a step change across that region, how do we do that in a way then that can be replicable to other regions? So, we build strongly on the creativity that we have seen. 

There are other ways: the investment that we're putting in, for example, to not only our carers strategy, but the money behind carers as well, because we recognise that if you don't look after carers, including some older carers, they themselves will become the people who need to be cared for. So, there are a number of ways that we are trying to put money into the system in the right way and some of them were outlined by the Cabinet Secretary for Finance earlier on.

You are right, though, Dai, we can't rest on our laurels with that, we have a way to go. I think the older people's commissioner has previously been, and I'm sure the new older people's commissioner will be, very frank in welcoming the strides we have taken. I think we are doing some incredible things within Wales, quite frankly, but also saying we need to go further. Part of that, I have to say, is, as has been touched on a couple of times, making a reality of the legislation we pass here as legislators.

I've touched on a couple of the ways we can do it, but one of those is actually taking forward with older people the idea of how we make that real, and there is work going on at the moment with the framework for an ageing society. That's looking at how we make real participation, deal with transport issues in urban and rural areas, living in the community, what makes a real difference to people living independently in the community, and also preparing for the future. Some of that touches on loneliness and isolation.

So, that ministerial advisory forum that's driving that work, along with engaging with older people as well, will operate now up until the spring of next year, then they will bring forward the framework and we'll take forward from that the work that they point at to say, 'This is how you actually make this really happen on the ground and build on the work that we've done.' So, there are ways to go forward with this, but I welcome again the support for drive and innovation within this area. We haven't got there yet and I don't think we ever will. If we ever sit back and say we're happy, we'll have failed. We need to keep on pushing to make these rights real. 

It's a pleasure to speak on this statement today, and I'd like to focus particularly on a success story in my own constituency. The annual Newport 50 Plus Information Day took place on Saturday, and the day is organised by the city's 50 plus forum and has been supported by the city council for over 20 years. It was a great opportunity for the new Older People's Commissioner for Wales, Heléna Herklots, to see the energy and enthusiasm in Newport to support ageing well, and everyone was glad to hear of her commitment to be an advocate for older people and their rights. I'm looking forward to working with her in the future.

The information day is incredibly popular and has grown year by year. It's not just an opportunity for the public to find out what information and advice is available, but it's also a great opportunity for local groups to network. Stallholders range from community activity groups and carer support networks to those providing housing and legal advice. This year, there was a particular focus on intergenerational working, with a group of students from Bassaleg school, as well as cadets volunteering to support the over-50s committee. The idea of involving young people came from forum members themselves, and they're a committed group of volunteers.

Until this year, the group was chaired by the inspirational Shirley Evans. Shirley showed great dedication to the forum and the people it represents for some 20 years. And as with many things, it's often a small group of volunteers who drive forward these events and activities, and Shirley certainly led the way. Peter Walters has now ably taken over as chair, ensuring that the forum continues to listen to and champion older people across our city. Shirley still regularly attends meetings, and is a prime example of remaining active and not allowing age to become a barrier.

Marking the beginning of Age Positive Week, Saturday's event was a real celebration of older people and all that they contribute to our city. And as the Minister says, older people form the backbone of our society. Events like these are so important to showcase services and activities available for older people, so perhaps the Minister can ensure that this good practice is fed into other areas of Wales, and I'm sure that Newport 50 plus forum would warmly welcome the Minister to the popular event next year. Thank you.           

Thank you. I think as the invitation has been laid down well in advance, I don't think I've got any excuse for failing to attend now. Jayne, thank you very much for that, and I think it does show that we all actually have a role here to play locally in the events that we attend and the events that we organise in the way that we actually celebrate the lives of older people, and the contribution that they make. We need to keep on doing this, because I think it's a bit of a 'We are winning, but we've got to do it more often in order to turn round these negative connotations that are often portrayed in the media about older people'—that they are a burden, and so on. Actually, if we didn't have these older people who are volunteering, who are looking after their children, looking after their loved ones, who are doing so much, who are running community transport schemes, who are working in food banks, who are doing the school runs, and so on, we'd fall apart, quite frankly—we really would. But it's also the wisdom and experience that comes. There's a role for older people—I have to say this as somebody who's just passed 55—in being part of the bedrock of those communities. It's not institutional wisdom; it's that community wisdom. They've see a few years under their belt and, actually, you're touching on that intergenerational aspect.

There are wins both ways. We increasingly see it from well-known, high-profile initiatives such as Pimp my Zimmer, to the exchanges where older people go into schools and do reading classes and assist teachers assistants within classes, but also younger people going into residential homes. The engagement is fantastic to see, and there are wins both ways—younger people going from school, sometimes as part of the Welsh bac, to actually talk through memories with people who are experiencing dementia, and to work with them on that. There are so many wins with it.

We all have a role to play, and I pick up the cudgel. I'm sure that my office team who'll be listening to this debate will have heard the invitation for next year, and will be putting it eagerly into the diary. I'd be keen to come along, and I've been to that centre several times. Most recently, I was there with a large group of older persons organisations—and younger people as well—talking about the issues of loneliness and isolation. So, I’d happily look at coming to that next year, but thank you very much for your approach to it. I know that John, your colleague in Newport, has said the same as well: we all have a role to play in celebrating older people.

Can I thank the Cabinet Secretary for his statement today and for some of the positive initiatives he outlines? I feel reasonably qualified to take part in this debate, and perhaps here I should declare an interest.

Many of the key concerns surrounding older people are identified in their ability to deal with statutory authorities on matters such as financial worries, housing, health, crime and isolation. These needs are a large part of living into old age. We all acknowledge that smoking, diet and exercise correlate directly to deprivation and ill health in later years. This results in some older people finding real restrictions on their ability to look after themselves during old age. Many older people experience problems in daily living because of chronic illnesses or health-related disabilities. We are living longer but not necessarily healthier lives. The decline of the wider family group compared to earlier times is a factor that puts many older people into care homes and away from their communities much earlier than should be the case, thereby increasing their isolation from friends and peers.

It is encouraging to read in today’s statement about the setting up of the acute response team in Prince Philip Hospital, which is designed to keep and treat people at home. This of course begs the question, Cabinet Secretary: how quickly will these be set up in other hospitals?

We again acknowledge that ensuring that older people are not disadvantaged simply by reason of age is one of the greatest challenges of modern times. That challenge is to ensure that all of our older people are able to live fulfilling lives and that they are not seen as a burden but recognised for the contribution they have made throughout their lives to the economy and community as a whole and also to acknowledge that many of them still contribute to society in many ways, often being the backbone of many charities and social activities. It is therefore incumbent on statutory authorities to ensure that their core mainstream services are available to older residents in the same way that they are for other people.

Social care is not just about getting people washed and dressed, but should be aspiring to help people live the fullest of lives and with dignity. Financial arrangements should be put in place as soon as possible, in anticipation of the escalation of costs of providing services going forward. There is a welter of issues building like floodwaters behind a dam. Unless we act decisively to prevent it, that dam will one day burst with devastating consequences, particularly for the elderly.

As we know, Whitehall insists on reducing funding to local authorities, which of course drastically impacts on the services they are able to deliver. We also know that the UK Government insists on increasing our foreign aid budget, even though it is a well-documented fact that huge amounts of this money is wasted by many foreign Government recipients on vanity projects or huge arms arsenals. Surely it is time to halt this misuse of public money and spend it far more wisely closer to home and make the lives of our older people a much better experience than has been the case so far.

David, thank you very much, and I was with you all the way—all the way, all the way—until that final paragraph. [Laughter.] And I would simply say that the difference between us is that, for me, social justice and providing people with good lives for them, for their families, for their loved ones doesn’t begin and end at home; it travels internationally. I popped into a lunchtime event today with a group of children from Hafod school in, I think, Mike Hedges’s constituency, and they were fundraising for educational opportunities for youngsters in parts of Africa, with an organisation helping, and they’d raised, I think, about £4,000 or £5,000—they were looking to double that and develop school facilities. What struck me was those young people there understood and articulated in their actions very clearly that their thoughts about what made a good world didn't stop in the Hafod, it didn't stop in Swansea—it extended right around the world. And I think that's where I differ. We can do both, David—[Interruption.] I don't think I can. Sorry, David, I would otherwise.

You can't, sorry. It's a statement, sorry. 

Unfortunately, in a statement, I can't. But I think you'll continue to make your case for a focus on home, and I'll continue to make the case for, 'We should do these good things at home and overseas as well.'

But let me pick up on some of the points where I think we had real agreement there. You mentioned about the transformation—how do we take these good examples like the Prince Philip? I think I mentioned in my earlier contribution that the Prince Philip example and many others that I see as I travel around Wales—it's not an isolated example any more—are driven by ICF funding, and sometimes driven, I have to say, by health boards and local authorities without ICF funding doing it themselves. Sometimes those, through their regional partnership working now, have decided to roll that out. If you look, for example, at the Cwm Taf stay well at home, without a lot of additional funding, they've rolled that across large areas, but not entirely. So, we hope that the transformation programme we have, backed with £100 million of funding, will allow these to be upscaled to regional level and then replicated as well. So, what is great and novel becomes commonplace and mainstreamed. But, of course, the ICF funding of £80 million this year, and the transformation fund of £100 million over the next two years or so, are as nothing compared to the £9 billion within the combined health and social care budget. So, if we can actually get this stuff mainstreamed into that budget, into the way of thinking, then we've really broken the back of this. And I start to see—the Cabinet Secretary for health and I, who jointly go on endless tours of the country speaking to the regional partnership boards—we absolutely see now that they are owning this process themselves increasingly and are coming to us saying, 'Here's what we think we can do, not just with additional funding, but as part of core funding, because that will make the difference for older people.'

But we also have, of course, underpinning this the social services and well-being Act. I can take no credit for that—it was put in place by predecessors in the previous Assembly—but I'll tell you, when I visited a Hafod residential facility in Caerphilly about two months or three months ago, the young chap who showed us around there, Geraint, took us to visit the family and an individual with dementia: wholly different from what you might have seen years ago, because the gentleman he introduced me to who had progressive dementia—they knew from discussions with him, but also with his family, that he was an exceptionally keen gardener, always had been. So, they'd worked out the individual plan for him—the individual plan, in line with the social services and well-being Act—an individual plan with him and with his family that meant that he was actually the one who took charge of all the gardening around the place. The benefit for him in terms of independence and dignity and the status that he had, that he wasn't regarded as somebody to sit over there quietly—he didn't require masses of medication and so on there; he was actually part and parcel of the running of that facility, important to it—and his family loved it and he loved it.

So, we are starting to do these things practically, but there are other things we can do as well. So, for example, we have, as well as the RISCA regulations that we've currently been taking through this place, an ongoing care home improvement strategy that will—. It's not to say we get to a point and that we accept it—it's a constant improvement, and I hope that many Members here, as they go into residential homes nowadays, will see the difference in approach that is being done. And on top of that, we add registration of the domiciliary care workforce and we'll move on to registration and professionalisation of the residential home workforce. All of these things will have a material impact on the quality of life of our older people.

And then, for those who live independently in their own homes, it's the capital funding that the Minister for housing and I announced recently that will allow local authorities to actually work with housing associations with capital money to provide dementia-friendly communities, for example. So, it doesn't have to be necessarily in a residential home, it could be in a cottage where they are supported to live independently, with the wraparound digital provision that keeps an eye on them and so on: new ways of thinking, focusing the money on the right outcomes. And to come back to Dai's point, we will not get there overnight, but this is a different way of thinking that puts the person at the centre of it—they're wishes, they're aspirations—and then you build it around them, and we're starting to do some really interesting things.

Thank you very much, Minister.

Item 6 on the agenda this afternoon is a statement by the Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Services: an update on pre-exposure prophylaxis—our approach in Wales. And I call on the Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Services, Vaughan Gething.

Thank you, Deputy Presiding Officer. I welcome the opportunity to update Members on the introduction of pre-exposure prophylaxis, which we'll now refer to as 'PrEP', one year after it’s introduction here in Wales. PrEP, as you know, is an antiretroviral medication, which, if taken correctly, can prevent HIV for those at risk.

Public Health Wales undertook work with an independent HIV expert group in November 2016 to assess the public health effectiveness of PrEP. A health technology assessment of this treatment was also undertaken by the All Wales Medicines Strategy Group in April 2017. On 28 April 2017, I announced my decision to provide the drug Truvada as PrEP to all those who would benefit from this preventative treatment as apart of an all-Wales study. That study will last up to three years. It started in July 2017 and it will provide evidence for the acceptability and the effectiveness of PrEP in HIV prevention. Public Health Wales and the independent HIV expert group are overseeing this study, and health boards in Wales began providing PrEP in July last year through integrated sexual health clinics. Sexual health services have worked hard to introduce this intervention and I am pleased to say that all integrated sexual health clinics in Wales have been providing PrEP from the outset.

Any patient for whom PrEP is deemed suitable is required to have a negative HIV test and a baseline blood test to ensure they have no underlying health conditions. They are also required to receive counselling before PrEP is provided. Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, 989 patients in Wales were deemed eligible for PrEP. Almost half of these individuals were new or relatively new to sexual health services. It is important that individuals who participate in high-risk sexual behaviour engage with our sexual health services both to protect themselves and others. And making PrEP available has encouraged this. 

I can confirm that at least five individuals have been diagnosed with HIV as a result of their engagement with sexual health services for PrEP. These individuals can now receive the care that they need to stay well. A total of 559 people started on PrEP during the first year of this study and I am very pleased to say that no new cases of HIV have been diagnosed within this group of people. However, services did diagnose a number of significant sexually transmitted infections within this group. There were 70 cases of gonorrhoea and 15 cases of syphilis. That is to be expected in a high-risk group. What is important now is that they are attending sexual health services regularly, being diagnosed early and being treated for both their own health gain as well as preventing the spread of those infections to others. 

Members may have seen coverage of a story over the summer recess about the Terrence Higgins Trust having to fundraise to make PrEP treatment available. I want to reassure Members and the wider public that this problem relates to England and not to Wales. I have decided to take a national approach to PrEP and HIV prevention here in Wales in direct contrast to England, where a national approach is not being taken and a charity is looking to raise funds for PrEP treatment.

Our latest figures show a 32 per cent decrease in new HIV cases in Wales, returning to 2011 levels. As important as PrEP is—and there is no doubt that PrEP reduces HIV infection—it is one part of the wider strategy to reduce new infections of HIV. PrEP needs to be taken correctly and supported by wider, preventative sexual health services.

I look forward to updating you on further progress regarding our targeted efforts to reduce the transmission of HIV here in Wales. I will of course keep Members updated on the PrEP study and the planned wider improvements to our sexual health services.

Thank you for your statement today, Minister. It's welcome news. There is a steady increase in the number of people living with HIV in Wales, which reflects, actually, an increase in survival and new diagnoses—both of which are to be welcomed—and we believe that PrEP plays an important role in reducing these new diagnoses. 

I have two areas of questioning. Not all people have had equal access to the drug. Previously, you have highlighted that there were challenges in Powys, due to the lack of services, and that meant that there wasn't a consistent all-Wales approach. Back in May 2018, you gave assurances that this would be rectified, so I wonder if you could outline what progress has been made in these areas. And, with this newly available drug, really, it's important that clinicians and the prescribing medical professionals are aware of the new drug and prescribe it as required, so perhaps you can just give us a bit of an update about the consistency and universality of access to PrEP throughout Wales, but particularly looking at Powys. 

The second area I just wanted to ask you about was the outcomes of the Welsh trial so far. I was pleased to see that you are monitoring the prevalence of STIs that are detected, and I assume that, as part of that, you are talking about, or they are being given information on, the education and use of condoms et cetera, et cetera. But I was slightly concerned to see that, of the 559 at-risk people who took the drug, 153 are unknown or have been lost to follow-up, and I wonder if, perhaps, you could give us a bit of an overview as to why that has happened, how we've managed—. You know, those 153 have disappeared off our radar. What do we need to do to ensure that the people who come onto this PrEP drug actually stay with it and stick with the whole process, because, of course, as you have already identified, they are the most at-risk people?

Thank you for the two questions. In the early part of my statement, I did try to outline that every integrated sexual health clinic in Wales has been providing PrEP from the outset of the trial, which is good news, because, when we initially spoke in May, that was before the trial had begun. So, actually, within the period of time, the lead-in time, every integrated sexual health clinic has been providing PrEP. So, the postcode challenge that we were concerned about, as far as PrEP is concerned, hasn't taken place, so it has been available to every citizen who it's been appropriate for, and so they've had access. I'll happily make sure that we continue to monitor that it is genuinely available in every part of the country and every citizen who could and should access PrEP is able to do so. 

On your final point, though, about those people that have fallen out, it is an important point. It's part of the challenge about wanting to make sure that we talk about this as a normal part of health services, because there's still a stigma. There's still a challenge about people engaging in services and recognising it's actually in their interests—not just in the Government's interests or the health service's interests, but in their interests—and there isn't a cap on numbers in the way that there is across the border, and to make sure that all those people who could benefit do. And, actually, it's part of the study that's being undertaken by both Cardiff University and Public Health Wales, the research on attitudes to PrEP, because there is, if you like, the technical pathway about how to try and treat people, but it's actually the support around that to make sure that people actually are taking advantage of and fully complying with the treatment regime to actually have the full benefit of it. And, as we've seen, we are getting to the highest risk group of people, because of the levels of other sexually transmitted infections that are within this group of people. So, it does show it's making the right health gain, dealing with the right people, and that is actually providing a benefit to the wider public.

Thank you very much. I, too, welcome the success that appears to have come out of the trials to date. What we need now, of course, is to ensure that as many people as possible can access the PrEP trial, as it is extended. It's very encouraging to see a significant decrease in the number of new cases of HIV in Wales, but, of course, there is always more that can be done.

We also know about the whole host of barriers that there are to people being able to access PrEP. There are still a significant number of people who are eligible for PrEP who refuse to receive treatment. Also, of course, the demand for sexual health services has doubled in the period between 2011 and 2016, without a corresponding increase in the resources available for sexual health services. So, it isn't hard to see where the problem comes from. We also have holes in the information available in Wales in terms of demographic data and so on. 

So, three questions: what steps are you taking, or do you intend to take, Cabinet Secretary, to engage with individuals and groups of people who are eligible for PrEP to raise awareness of the treatment and to ensure that PrEP is accepted by those groups—and I think that sex workers are an important group to be targeted in this instance? Can we have a commitment from you that sexual health services will be funded adequately in order to support the PrEP study, to ensure that everyone who can benefit from it can get access to it? And, on this question of data, what steps can you take to look at the gaps that we have in the demographic data to ensure that PrEP services are targeted as effectively as possible?   

Thank you for the questions. I think one of the encouraging things we shouldn't lose sight of is that we are getting an engagement with people who previously weren't engaged with sexual health services because of the availability of PrEP. So, it's not just of benefit for HIV. As I said earlier, those other sexually transmitted infections that people are now being treated for would not have been discovered if they were not engaging with sexual health services to try and receive PrEP. That's a good thing. Not only that, though, but the five people that I mentioned earlier who have been diagnosed with HIV were previously undiagnosed, and they only engaged with sexual health services because of the nationwide availability of PrEP.

But, of course, that doesn't mean that everything is perfect. The sexual health review that I gave a statement to Members on in April of this year in Plenary highlighted a range of areas of both the review and the nine points of action being taken forward. And I will happily come back and make sure that Members are further updated, whether it's an oral statement or a written one, on the progress, and the board undertaking the progress of that is being overseen by the chief medical officer. So, it is at the senior end of the Government, the top of the Government, with the chief medical officer having oversight of it, because we recognise there is still more for us to do, and we need to make funding decisions that actually reach the need that we identify.

But, in terms of understanding how and why people do or don't engage with those services, there's not just the work that the review has done, but actually the study that I mentioned in answer to Angela Burns. Undertaken by Public Health Wales and Cardiff University, it is looking at how individuals living in Wales use PrEP and how PrEP relates to their behaviour and about their access to other health services. So, we're looking at that broader piece of work, and so we'll have some really useful information to come to us in the research being undertaken.

We also have an international perspective too. In the summer, last year, I met with Dr Owain Williams who, coincidentally, I knew when I was a student at Aberystwyth. He is now working in Queensland university—he's a senior research fellow in global health at the University of Queensland—and he's overseeing some of the work they're doing on a PrEP trial in Queensland too. So, we're looking at international evidence as well as evidence here in Wales as well. Because I would always want to be—and I say this regularly—guided by the evidence on what works best and understand that we can't force people to make decisions that we think are the right ones for them, but it's how we work with and understand the choices they make and try to help them to make genuinely informed choices, and that should inform our choices about the quality and the nature of healthcare that we provide to the wider public.

Thank you very much, Cabinet Secretary.

There are no more speakers, and therefore that brings today's proceedings to a close. Thank you.