National Assembly for Wales

Croeso, bawb. I'd like to welcome Members to committee this morning. I move to item 1, and we have no apologies this morning, and two Members are due to join us shortly.

I move to item 2. We have two papers to note this morning. We have a letter from the Public Accounts Committee regarding the M4 project, and we also have a letter from Transport for Wales. And, actually, we have a third letter—we also have a letter from the Minister for Economy and Transport regarding the traffic commissioner and our session with him. Are Members happy to note those papers? 

Yes.

Thank you.

In that case, I move to item 3, and this is our sixth session with regard to the committee's inquiry on decarbonisation of transport. And this particular session this morning is on aviation. I'd like to welcome our witnesses this morning—we're very grateful for you being with us. Perhaps you could introduce yourselves, just for the public record.

Okay. I'm Debbie Bowen Rees, the chief executive officer of Cardiff Airport.

I'm Mark Bailey, director of airport planning and development at Cardiff Airport.

Lovely. Thank you for being with us.

Is environmentally sustainable aviation possible?

I think it's something that is absolutely at the top of the aviation sector's agenda. I was at a meeting in London last week—or a couple of weeks ago now—with all of the key airlines, the big airlines, and airports. And I think it was noted at that meeting that sustainable aviation is—obviously, behind safety and security—now absolutely at the top of the sector's agenda. There's a huge amount of work and research going on. You'll see the airlines are working exceptionally hard in terms of aviation itself—huge amount of research going on with aircraft engines, aircraft fuel. There's also a total design of UK airspace in train at the moment. The current structure goes back to the 1940s, and has been built on, and on, and on, as the aviation sector has developed. But it's all absolutely focused now on the needs of the modern aviation context, and, obviously, environmental issues are absolutely, again, with safety, at the top of that agenda. We work with the airlines to ensure that, at Cardiff Airport, all of our climb-out and descent profiles are as fuel-efficient as possible. We also have taxi patterns around the airfield that allow aircraft to taxi in the most sustainable way.

So, I think, if you add all of that up, there's a huge amount of work going on. The airlines are absolutely confident that they can develop the industry in a sustainable way that will meet the growth that's happening. There's an International Civil Aviation Organization initiative called CORSIA, which is the carbon offsetting and reduction scheme for international aviation. The UK and all of our airlines have signed up to that, and that does set some really stringent targets in terms of carbon decarbonisation of the industry.

Right, that's a lot more advanced than I had expected, to be honest. Did you mention electric aircraft in your opening?

Yes, there's a huge amount of research going on with that. Clearly, it's a challenge, especially with big, heavy aircraft, travelling over long distances.

What about short haul? I'm thinking of Anglesey, for example.

Yes, there is.

There is testing going on with short haul, and I know Airbus recently completed a test, which, I think it was a 14-seater, where they stripped the seats out and filled it with batteries. So, there is testing going on and it's something we're keeping an eye on—on how it goes and everything like that.

How far are we off getting a flight from Cardiff to Anglesey?

Well, I think that would be a classic case where it could absolutely work—you know, at the forefront of that technology. As I say, it's a small aircraft, small passenger load, low weight, short distance. So, routes like that would absolutely fit with this—I would guess—first generation.

I know I'm being a bit unfair, but can you give any estimate? 

No.

An estimate would be very unfair, but we're not that far—

And to be honest, all of it, it's all in development at the moment, and there are obviously huge commercial sensitivities around it. So, Airbus aren't releasing a huge amount of information that we've had sight of. So, I really wouldn't be able to say at all.

It's the ongoing tests; you're close to it, but you're not getting actual timescales of when that's going to be available. There's a huge amount of testing around the technology, but also how they get over the distance as well, in terms of how the aircraft can fly those distances and, obviously, how then they recharge those batteries after it's done the journeys.

Yes, well, it's interesting.

And also, I think there was a test a couple of years ago where an aircraft flew around the world on solar power. It had huge, massive wings with solar panels all across the wings. So, there's testing going on in that respect as well. So, as I say, it's all about different types of fuel and it's all quite advanced.

Oscar, you wanted to come in.

Thank you, Chair. I just should tell the committee my interest because I hold a pilot licence and I know one or two things. Everybody must understand that the research is going on all over the world regarding this exhaust fumes from the aircraft, and I tell you, only yesterday, it was good news that one country has achieved some sort of research work to convert those fumes into water. That is the great breakthrough. If this happens, I think the environment, in this space—it will be a totally different ball game. And also—

Do you know about this?

I haven't got the details with me, but I think—

I saw it.

It does just underpin the huge amount of research that is going on across all different fuel types and how we can do it.

And the UK Government, as I understand it, is planning an aviation strategy. What's that going to mean for Cardiff Airport?

Well, obviously, the aviation strategy is hugely important to us because it will absolutely govern how the aviation sector is regulated, audited and managed by the Department for Transport. So, we were involved in the consultation for that Green Paper and, obviously, as you would expect, a huge chunk of it is around decarbonisation and the environmental strategy. So, once the—we're still waiting for the White Paper. It was expected to be out in December, but, obviously, with everything that's been going on, that's delayed now. But when that becomes finalised, then, clearly, the regulation within it will apply fully to us.

The key focuses are around the consumer. So, a huge shift in emphasis in that respect. There are also, as I say, environmental measures, safety measures and, as I say, all of it would apply to us.

Did Cardiff Airport feed in at all to the White Paper, or the wider industry?

We took part in the consultation, both individually as the airport, but we also belong to two airport groups—the Regional and Business Airports Group, which is for small airports, and then the Airport Operators Association—and we fed in through those two processes as well.

And in bullet-point form, what did you state in your consultation response?

From the environmental perspective, again, that formed a considerable part of our answer, because, as I'm sure we'll get on to in a minute, we take our environmental responsibilities exceptionally seriously at Cardiff. In fact, Mark was at meetings yesterday, and I think we are ahead, in many respects, of many of our airport colleagues. So, we went to great lengths to explain what we were doing as an airport, because I think DfT were keen to understand just how advanced the industry is at the moment.

Right. I think that probably takes me on to our next set of questions that are coming from Joyce Watson.

Thank you, Chair. Good morning, both. 

Hello.

So, moving on from what you've just said, could you outline how Cardiff Airport's master plan does support emission reductions?

Yes, sure. In terms of our master plan, obviously we launched that just over a year ago, and that's our journey to 2040. That highlights a transport hub, a terminal, and various other changes, freight and cargo. We're currently working with some of the other stakeholders in and around the enterprise zones. You've got the master plan area, which is Cardiff Airport, and you've got the enterprise zone, and Legal & General land just outside. So, we're working with Vale of Glamorgan Council and the other stakeholders in terms of how we look at sustainable energy for that development and how that moves forward for the whole site—so not just the airport, but the other stakeholders as well. So, we're looking at the future infrastructure for the electricity, to make sure there's enough supply for that to support a sustainable development and the requirements of that in the future, such as electric vehicle charging, because that is going to be massive requirement going forward—how does that accommodate it, and how do we put in a green energy solution, maybe generating on or nearby the site? But also, in terms of that, we're also linking it back to St Athan or Bro Tathan, then, because there's another development down there that has got a similar goal and aspiration, and how they complement each other and how that could work for both sites.

The other thing we're looking at within the development is that, as I said, there's a transport hub, and we're looking at how that could be a sustainable transport hub, because you've got all modes of transport, effectively, coming to the airport, so that is not necessarily just a transport hub for people coming and going to the airport, but could that be extended as a hub that serves people coming in and out the Vale, commuting across the Vale, commuting to Cardiff, so, effectively, possibly leaving cars there and then jumping on another mode of transport—so an integrated transport solution between the airport and the other areas. So, we're looking at, I suppose, the estate and how that could be a sustainable development, but also the service connectivity in and out of the Vale as well, and to the airport.

Okay, so that sounds pretty comprehensive. So, the next obvious question is: you have flight paths, so how are you going to make those environmentally sustainable where possible?

Is this our environmental flight path?

Yes.

Okay. So, we launched the environmental flight path in September, and the idea of this was how we point to people our journey to going to carbon neutral. What we decided to do, rather than do a whole road map that a lot of other people have done, which is from here to the end date, let's focus on the short and the medium term, so the immediate stuff over the next three to six months, maybe 18 months, in terms of what we're doing. And this is a live document that we'll constantly publish and push out every three to six months.

In terms of what we've already achieved, Deb has covered some of them in terms of ground running, controlled descent. In the last eight years, we've reduced emissions by 53 per cent. So, you can see, as Deb said earlier, we're already on a big delivery programme in terms of what we're doing, and ahead of a lot of people as well. Electricity consumption has reduced by 7 per cent in one year, so over the last year, and our natural gas consumption has reduced.

In terms of what we're doing looking ahead, beginning of October, we've signed a new contract with our electricity, which uses 100 per cent green energy. We've committed to a healthy travel charter, so how people and our staff come to the airport in a healthy way—bike cycling; we're also looking at EV charging. Next week, we're about to start installing some EV chargers into public areas, so into our staff car parks and into public parking areas. And we've already got some EV vehicles being used on the airfield and EV charging points within the service yard and on the air side as well, to support those vehicles.

We've also signed into a project to deliver a solar farm actually at the airport, so this is a 2 MW solar farm that will generate electricity for our own use, and that will be within the boundaries of our site as well. And anything we don't use, so if you look at peak demand times, say height of summer, when we may not be able to use it all, we'll either push that back into the grid or maybe look at storage as technology improves to be able to reuse that.

Can I just jump in there? That actually is a really exciting project for us. We're working with Cenin Renewables who had the Parc Stormy site near Bridgend—you may be aware of them. What we're also going to do around the solar farm is introduce elements of biodiversity onto the airfield. At the moment, we've just got acres and acres of grass, which is absolutely essential for the safe operation of aircraft, but is not necessarily good for biodiversity. So, we're looking at ways around the solar PV farm where we can assist with the preservation of pollinators. So, we're looking at beehives and things like that, so we can actually, as well as be producing electricity, go some way towards addressing the biodiversity, or lack of, on the airfield site. I think that's quite a major project for us from a lot of respects in terms of our environmental plan.  

I think probably the only other thing really to add in there, which I skipped across, was how we deal with our recycling. So, we currently recycle. We collect the waste or recyclable material from our third parties within the airfield. But our food waste—. We currently compost on site and we've just agreed that we'll supply that free of charge to the local allotments. So, any food waste that comes through the airport it gets composted on site and then delivered to the allotment in Rhoose for them to use within there, which again is a great point that we're doing in terms of just around the periphery of the area of the airport as well, with our waste going to zero to landfill as well.

Do you want to talk about the strategy—[Inaudible.]

In terms of the—

With the consultants.

Yes. So, we're also—. Deb mentioned earlier that I was at the Airport Operators Association yesterday, and we're involved there, in terms of our climate change adaptation reporting, and we've engaged consultants, in terms of moving that forward. So, we have a workshop coming forward, which is how we deliver or how we look at climate change, how we adapt to it, in terms of delivery of the master plan, and how the flight plan will extend to accommodate that. And we're also engaging various consultants in terms of what can we do within the building, in terms of making that more efficient. 

And that's a national project with the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. 

Yes. 

Okay, so that all sounds great and exciting and I look forward to seeing some of those developments. But, in terms of becoming carbon neutral, I don't know what your aims are, but I do know that Bristol Airport, for example, has set a target of 2025. So, in terms of comparing where we are in Wales, and you're the only airport anyway, how does that compare?  

Okay. Well, I think, if you look at the Bristol Airport plan, it's a really great plan; they've got a lot of stuff in there. But there's not a huge amount of detail on how. So, there's the target date, but it doesn't really explain in tangible projects how they're going to get to that state. I think you'll see with our flight plan that we've got a lot of detail in terms of how we are tangibly going to reduce our carbon output.

So, as I say, I can't comment on Bristol's plan, because I don't really quite understand how they're going to do it. But I think one thing we've been massively focused on with the development of our plan is that there are obviously the whys and the whats, but there are also the hows, and I think that's really important. So, I think, in terms of setting a target date, we've really started the process now to specifically reduce the carbon output at the airport through some very measurable ways. This is a living, breathing document and, as these projects mature and develop and we start to understand tangibly how they are affecting our output, then we're in a position to give a specific date.

But, as I say, our ultimate objective is towards carbon neutrality and, in fact, we're working with a project now with specialist environmental consultants to enable us to assess fully all of this and give a target that we can actually hang our hats against, and we can actually show how we delivered it. So, I think this is very much a living, breathing work-in-progress document. But I would say, if you look at specific projects and specific targets within those projects, there's a lot more in this plan in terms of how we're going to do it, and I think that's what's really important. 

Okay, but I suppose wider society will want to know a date, they'll want a target, because, without targets, things slip or we haven't got a measure on how well you're doing. We know they've got a target of 2025 and they're going to be measured by it. When can we look forward to having a target?

Like I say, we absolutely intend to get that target, but, first of all, we want to be absolutely—. We don't want to just give a target that we really aren't quite sure how we're going to reach that target. So, Mark is doing a huge amount of work at the moment with environmental consultants that will enable us—. When we do say what our target date is, we can be really clear that we are going to get there—you know, how we're going to get to that target. So, I think—. We wanted to have the time to do that detailed work and really understand it, and then we'll put a date on it. We felt it wasn't appropriate to put the date now when we're developing the 'how'.

So, we can expect one in the near future?

Yes. Absolutely.

Thank you.

If you can't give us a date when you will be carbon neutral, can you give us a date at least of when you expect to have that date by?

I would say we'd have that date by mid summertime next year to the end of next year. This where we're working though, because we're working through the studies now, but we're also working through our climate change adaptation, which is a report that goes out summertime as well. So, they all link together.

Okay, so next year we'll expect to have your date. Right.

Absolutely.

Can I just ask you briefly about the Government's 'Prosperity for All: A Low Carbon Wales' document? How effectively do you think that that document or policy considers aviation? There has been a suggestion that there should be specific objectives for Cardiff Airport. Would you agree with that? What comments do you have on that?

Well, I think it goes back to the conversation we've just had. I think it is important for us as a business and such a critical part of the transport structure to be able to demonstrate how we are doing. So, I think we absolutely would support objectives for the airport. 

Okay. Any other general comments about the document, 'A Low Carbon Wales'?

Well, I think the key thing that it highlighted is that—

Is it missing anything?

Is it what, sorry?

Is it missing anything in terms of—?

I'm sorry—I can't hear you.

Sorry. Is it missing anything in terms of aviation?

Well, I think, the airport is an integral part of the transport network, and I think it is important that we as the airport contribute to that process.

Okay. Right. Bethan Sayed.

[Inaudible.]

Yes.

Yes.

Well, I think the overriding principle is that we want the passengers that are currently not flying from Wales to be able to fly from Wales, and there's a huge environmental reason for that. People travel to airports, and at the moment we've got nearly 2 million passengers a year driving past Cardiff Airport and going on an extra hour or three hours to London. So, from an environmental perspective, it is really important that the airport continues to thrive and grow so that people who do fly are able to fly locally. In terms—

Well, I think, again, we've got to look holistically across the whole of the industry, because, you know, I think one of the things that Mark's doing with the project with DEFRA, it's how—. If you look at carbon targets, clearly, we as Cardiff Airport have got our targets, as other airports have, but so have the road transport networks, so have the rail networks, so have the UK airport industry as a whole. So, I think this is where—. You know, I go back to the Chair's question earlier about the prosperity for Wales and the integrated approach. We need to look not just at our own small businesses, but how we interact as part of a big, organic system. So, I think if—. You know, those flights will happen. So, if we can enable those people travelling to those flights in a more sustainable, environmental way, then I think it's important that we do do that. So, I think this is where all of our actions that we're doing on the airport to make sure that Cardiff Airport is operating in the most environmentally effective and sustainable way that we can, so that when flights do happen from the airport they're happening in an environmentally responsible way—

Yes, because of—. So, like I say, our objective for Cardiff Airport is to develop a sustainable business that grows and brings economic benefit for Wales, but all of this work that we're doing is making sure that we can support that growth in an environmentally sustainable way. And that's what the airlines are doing. If you look at the carbon offsetting scheme for international aviation, that is all focused on, 'What is the expected grade forecast for aviation?', 'How can we enable that growth whilst not impacting on carbon emissions?' So, for instance—I've got a figure here somewhere, and we can give the figures to the clerks—they say that they actually can meet the growth demands of the—. I think—. I will check these figures, but it's something like the 2050 forecast growths based on the 2008 carbon forecasts, which is what it's benchmarked against. So, I think what the industry is looking at is—you know, we're all focused on growth and economic growth, but we've got to enable it in an environmentally friendly way that is not going to increase damage to the planet.

Yes, but, again, what I'd say here is that we need to look at it in a holistic way, and, actually, there are some ways where air travel is more environmentally friendly and sustainable than road and rail. The Regional and Business Airports Group have just completed a study looking at carbon mode analysis, and, actually, that's looking at all modes of transport and actually looking at it again in a much more granular, detailed way.

Who did that, sorry?

Sorry?

Who did that?

RABA, the Regional and Business Airports Group. So, they've looked at case studies and we've actually got a case study that they did looking at Cardiff to Manchester, and that is based on the rail journey using the route to Crewe and then road travel via the M5 and the M6, or air travel using a Dash 8 aircraft from Cardiff Airport, and, when you look at that, if you were to look at the actual facts, that, at the moment, most of that rail is diesel—so, it's 81 per cent diesel-powered and 19 per cent electric—also, if you look at the number of passengers that those trains carry, the realistic load factor is between about 20 to 35 per cent, if you then compare that against an aircraft travelling with an 85 per cent load factor, which is what it would normally do, what you get in carbon dioxide emitted per passenger in kilograms per person—rail comes out at 55, road comes out at 41, and air comes out at 36. So, actually, on that specific route, it's more carbon-efficient to fly it than it is to go by diesel train as it is now. Now, clearly, if the rail industry has got objectives to electrify, and I'm sure James Price, when he talks to you in the next session, will talk all about electrification—. But when all of the figures are published at the moment, they're all based on electric trains. Now, if you look at the electric network across Wales, not just the rest of the UK, most of our railways are still at the moment operating on diesel trains. So, it is, at the moment, more carbon efficient, in some respects, for people to fly, and I think that needs to be considered when we look at the argument.

Will do.

Well, I think that's a really good question, actually. The key thing to look at is, when you look at the airlines that do operate from Cardiff at the moment, Qatar Airways has got the most modern fleet across the world. So, their aircraft are probably amongst the most efficient. KLM, our other huge operator, have just come out as the most sustainable airline; they've just topped the league. We've now got Flybe operating Dash 8 aircraft, which, again, are much more carbon efficient than the jet aircraft that were following. Tui, for instance, have a modern fleet of aircraft. Most of the airlines that we have operating from Cardiff are operating the latest technology. Ryanair, for instance, as well, have a modern fleet, modern engines.

It is a fact that, as a small regional airport—and this isn't just Cardiff; this is all of the airports under 3 million—we do find it more difficult to attract and keep airlines than the bigger airports, and we do have to be much more competitive as a result of that. But I think there are very few airlines out there now that aren't operating modern aircraft. So, it is a factor that we would take into account when we look at it, but we have to balance that against what the customers want and the routes that we need to develop.

A final, final one, sorry. You said 'region' there, and I know you didn't mean it in a bad way, but, obviously, as a nation, we want to be defined on our own, and people will come here for that. Is there an issue within the aviation world, therefore, that Wales is seen as a region and therefore you can't potentially compete for some things that a nation would?

Just briefly, because we've got to move on.

Really, really briefly, but this is a really fantastic question and I was talking to the team at the airport about it before. One thing I'm immensely proud of at Cardiff Airport is we constantly punch massively above our weight, because we are a national airport, because we support the capital city, and because we are owned by the people of Wales. So, when we look at how we compete with airlines, yes, across the whole scheme of things, we are a relatively small regional airport. The reason we got Qatar Airways is because we are a national airport, we serve a capital city, and all that stuff that goes with it. So, yes, I do talk of Cardiff as being a regional airport in some respects, but we are absolutely a national airport.

Oscar Asghar.

Thank you very much, Chair, and thank you, Deb and Mark. I've listened to you carefully. I know you're working very hard to improve the airport, but we're still not making a profit out of it. Without the Welsh Government, it can't survive anyway. My question relates to air passenger duty, and the UK Government hasn't devolved this power to Cardiff Airport. What impact is it making on your airport regarding this, and especially in the climate emergency?

One thing I would say is, we're really grateful to the cross-party support for this across Wales. I think one of the key things about the devolution of APD in relation to the environmental debate is the UK Government making it categorically clear that APD is not an environmental tax. The whole argument behind devolving it to Wales and to the Welsh Government is that the Welsh Government can then set and use APD in accordance with its own agenda in a context that is important and works for Wales. So, if it's devolved, it does give the Welsh Government the opportunity to look at it and it could potentially adjust it, and it goes back to Bethan's point about our choice about what airlines we use. APD with an environmental tag attached to it would give us a massively powerful lever in terms of attracting the most environmentally efficient airlines to Cardiff and to Wales. So, I think the environmental debate—. Some people say, 'How can you square giving APD to Wales if the Welsh Government have declared a climate emergency?' For me, it makes the argument even stronger, because it enables the Welsh Government to actually do with it what it feels is appropriate in terms of the Welsh context.

But you are now talking about Welsh Government; I'm talking about Cardiff Airport wishing to see APD devolved. So, what will you be doing differently or what would you use this money for or toward?

As I just say, if it were devolved, it wouldn't be a Cardiff Airport decision, because that tax would be managed and set by the Government. But what the Government did with it could then impact on how we can attract airlines to Wales, because, at the moment, with Qatar Airways, for instance, £75 of every ticket sold goes directly to the Treasury. We don't have any input in that at all at the airport; it just goes straight there. If it was a Welsh Government tax, the Welsh Government would determine what level of tax it wished to impose. It would also determine what it would charge that tax against, and then we at the airport would use that accordingly in our discussions with airlines, in terms of who was then attracted to operate from the airport.

Okay. The Welsh Government is pursuing further public service obligation routes from Cardiff Airport. What is the justification for pursuing air routes to other cities like London and Manchester—I know you briefly mentioned it earlier—with direct rail connection already there?

Like I say, I think you need to look at it not just as a stand-alone discussion. This is where, when you're planning transport and you're planning networks, you've got to look at all of it. You've got to look at air, you've got to look at rail, you've got to look at roads, and when you make the decision, if you look at it holistically, you can make a better decision, because you then come up with the right answer. So, I think the example we gave just now—. Yes, there is a train service to Manchester. In fact, I was looking at it this morning, because I'm going up to Manchester in a couple of weeks' time. It would take me three hours 50 minutes to get to Manchester by road, it would take me three hours and 18 minutes by train, it would take me 25 minutes by air, and then if you look at the diesel train, or the impact on the road, actually, it's probably more carbon efficient to go by air in that particular example.

So, I think again, the PSO is a Government contract—public service obligation—so this would be where the Welsh Government should look at it in terms of, 'Right, we've got air options, we've got rail options, we've got road options. Which is the best in terms of the environmental impact of that, and we'll follow that particular decision?' So, I think it goes back to the point I made earlier—you've got to consider the airport and aviation as an integral part of that transport network, and, when you're making decisions, you've got to balance all of it against the other and see, as I said, what the best solution then is.

The thing is—finally, Chair—I travelled myself to Scotland the other day, by train, and I had to change at Crewe. We could easily go by air. I could go there, but the thing is just the first time ever. I think you could make quite a lot of profit if there were a lot of flights and connectivity to Cardiff Airport from various cities in the UK. Take my colleague from Monmouth, he chose to go by train because it takes more than three to four hours to come to the airport for that connection to go to Glasgow. So, those four hours would be eight hours coming—. So, there should be some domestic flight connectivity and easy access to the plane rather than going through all the other systems. I think you can see—

And, again, one of the key things behind the decarbonisation of transport is changing people's habits, and to change people's habits you've got to come up with something that is attractive to people, otherwise you're never going to do it, which is why, as I say, you need to look at all the levers that are going to drive people's decision making and work out how you can influence them to make the best decision.

Thank you. Can I just ask, does the airport measure and report on its emissions?

Yes, we've got, in terms of our estate, BS8555 accreditation, which is an environmental accreditation. We report annually in terms of the emissions there and our performance against that. We're also about to sign up to the airport carbon accreditation scheme, which only seven—. I think there are about 250 airports in the world signed up to that, but only seven within the UK, and we're just going through the process of signing up to that, where you actually report back your carbon emissions and what you are doing as an airport business.

Because I don't understand fully some of the areas you're talking about, so, a member of the public can check once a year and see what your emissions are.

The information can be made available. Whether it's easily accessible or publicly available, I don't know the answer to that.

Can you make it publicly available? Is that something you would consider doing?

We could do, yes.

I can't see why not. Absolutely.

What's the new one you just mentioned?

The airport carbon accreditation scheme, which is a global carbon accreditation specific to aviation.

That would be helpful, because if the public or people like ourselves can see every year what your emissions are—

In fact, we could put it on the website. What we're going to do is we're going to have a sort of dashboard within the airport that will show all of our environmental statistics, so it will be available for all of our customers to see.

Okay, that's good.

Chair, I've just found the point that I was looking at earlier, which I mentioned in terms of aviation and targets. Can I just give you that detail?

Yes. We're a little over time, but yes please.

So, basically Sustainable Aviation's findings are that carbon efficiency can be doubled by 2050 relative to 2010:

'UK aviation can accommodate significant demand growth through to 2050, including the effect of more runway capacity in the South East. By 2050, carbon dioxide emissions are expected to be close to the 2005 levels recommended by the Committee on Climate Change. Potential for further reductions in net carbon dioxide emissions to meet global aviation industry ambitions of carbon neutral growth by 2020, and the halving of net carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 will be managed by the new ICAO carbon offset scheme for international aviation (CORSIA)'.

Okay. Thank you, Deb, for that. Can I thank you very much for your time this morning? It's been a very fruitful evidence session, so thank you very much. Diolch yn fawr.

We'll take a short break, a five-minute break, and be back at 10.35 a.m. for the next session.

I'd like to welcome Members back and we move on to item 4 in regard to our seventh, and nearly final, evidence session, before the Minister comes in, on the decarbonisation of transport, and we've got colleagues today from Transport for Wales for this session. Perhaps I could ask you to introduce yourselves for the public record. James, if I come to you first.

James Price, chief executive of Transport for Wales. 

Gareth Morgan, director of safety and sustainability, Transport for Wales. 

Thank you for being with us and for your papers. And, since your papers, you've also provided us with further documents as well. So thank you for that. The first set of questions are from Hefin David. 

Please could you provide us with us with an update on your developing role as Transport for Wales that goes beyond rail services, but with particular reference to how that might influence decarbonisation strategies?

I guess some of what I might say, by definition, might overlap a bit with some of the questions you've got for the Minister later, but our core remit, as written now, and you will have seen it, already includes some things that go outside rail. And I guess the biggest area of activity that we're currently involved in that impacts on the carbon side is transport planning and transport modelling. 

We have, and we are developing further, models so that we can transport plan on a national and on a regional basis in a way that we haven't been able to do before in Wales. And a key component of that transport modelling for the first time is to be able to understand the carbon and other environmental impacts of different transport mixes and different transport schemes. If you look beyond that to the future, and go on the back of policy statements that the Welsh Government has made about transferring planning and delivery of other functions into Transport for Wales, the first of which is likely to be bus and active travel, clearly, there are significant opportunities, I think, around pushing the integration agenda such that (a) we make the best use of the miles that are subsidised by our public transport but (b) we make sure that they are as integrated as they possibly can be.

I think in the first instance it's going to be quite difficult to do that, because the powers that we will have and the tools that we will have will be exactly the same ones that the Welsh Government currently has. But, over time, with some of the powers that the Welsh Government wants to bring through with the Bill it's taking forward, and some of the other commercial opportunities that we will have, we will be able to influence that. So, I think it's about planning and integrating on a regional basis—integrated ticketing, et cetera, et cetera.

And do you think that the pace at which Transport for Wales is developing its portfolio and remit is too slow for the needs of decarbonisation, which are immediate? Do you think the pace of the two things are—?

I definitely think that's a fair challenge, and I think the other challenge, building on that, is even though we have in a UK sense a very ambitious set of plans around rail—65 per cent increased capacity, et cetera—in the light of a climate change emergency, potentially we need to be planning over the next couple of years for taking that to the next level probably in eight or nine years' time, which we need to be planning now; otherwise, there'll be a gap. 

In terms of are we moving fast enough, I think our board would say that we are moving as fast as we can do as a new organisation. I think we will be able to take any additional services on at the speed at which the Welsh Government is able to pass them to us. There's an obvious organisational capacity challenge for us, but we believe we're able to do that. But I think it's absolutely fair for us to be challenged consistently, and I'd encourage you to do that, and to challenge ourselves on the scale and the pace of that change. 

So, to enable us to challenge you, how would we be looking to measure your performance over the course of the period you identified? 

Okay. So, we are putting in place with Welsh Government a series of KPIs, key performance indicators, and they'll go right from the very high-level strategic ones all the way through to quite operational ones, but there should be a thread linking all the way through. So, we shouldn't be doing some operational activity that's not linked to the strategic objectives. Strategic objectives will be things like modal shift, carbon reduction, and those need to be agreed with the Welsh Government, and will most likely see their first incarnation on the back of the new Welsh transport strategy. So, I think that is going to be very outcome focused, and then we are going to be asked and challenged to do as much as we possibly can do, and scrutinised against that with the budget that's made available to us against those high-level targets. 

Okay. That's very helpful for future scrutiny consideration. The last question I've got for you is regarding some of the evidence that we received. You said in your paper that there is a need to look at examples of good practice UK wide and globally, and you said that this is something that TfW is well placed to do. Does that suggest an extension of your remit quite considerably?

I don't think it's in our core remit to do that, but I know from day-to-day experience of working with Welsh Government that Welsh Government expects us to be benchmarking ourselves, certainly against the best in Europe, and actually, increasingly, against the best in the world. If you look mode by mode, the gap that we've got against the best in the world is quite significant. So, we are looking at that. I don't think it implies lots of spending of money on going around the world looking at things. I do think it means people paying attention to trade journals, reading things up, going to certain important conferences, and just keeping on top of what is best practice in Europe and in the world.

Okay. Thank you.

Joyce Watson. 

Good morning. I want to discuss how decarbonisation features in your current plan for the rail franchise and the metro, and whether the delivery is likely to be as expected.

Okay. So, as we get into the detail on this, I'll probably bring Gareth in some more, but if we start with the aggregate figures. So, decarbonisation, in terms of an input into the railway, we've got two high-level targets, one of which I suspect you'll challenge me on, the other one is difficult to challenge on. So, for the metro, it's 100 per cent carbon free, 50 per cent of which coming from Wales, and that will be for traction and all other power. For traction on the rest of the network, we've got a 30 per cent reduction target in the immediate future when the new fleet comes in. And the reason it's only 30 per cent is because of the non-electrification of the remaining Network Rail asset, and, therefore, in the current environment, the only fleet that's available for the type of network that Wales has got is a diesel fleet.

But, as you will have seen in the evidence pack, both of those fleets have been bought with the intention of being able to swap out the diesel power packs for something else. If you look at the Stadler fleet, that's going to be, potentially, a whole lot easier to do, because the Stadler fleet is a modular fleet. The engine unit can be taken out entirely and it can be moved to electric, or the current view is that you could switch more batteries or maybe even hydrogen fuel cells in there. In the case of the CAF fleet, that's marginally more difficult, but the CAF fleet's engines are in what they call 'rafts', and it literally looks like a raft, like a shelf, I guess, underneath the train, so they can be pulled out to be maintained. They could be pulled out to be switched over with something else. But, clearly, if we were able not to be running diesel, that would be a better place to be than where we are. 

You've answered my second question, so I don't need to ask it. So, together with the Welsh Government, you're procuring 77 brand new diesel multiple units from CAF. So, will they have the capability for those diesel engines to be replaced with alternatives, whether that's hydro power or any other innovative system that comes along?

So, part of the procurement of them was the theoretical ability to be able to change that out. Now, changing out these engine rafts, as I've kind of talked about them, and they literally—. Well, if you look at the table opposite you, the black piece underneath the table there, that is actually what it looks like on the side of the train, and you literally pull them out on rollers and then the engine is taken away. In theory, more than in theory, on a drawing basis, it's possible to put something else back in that same space and connect it up. For hydrogen, the issue would be storage of hydrogen on the train, because, clearly, they wouldn't go in the same raft. You'd have to somehow have a unit dedicated to that, but that's possible. For battery, that might be a whole lot easier. For overhead electric, it would be very easy, but we'd have to have overhead electric. So, we've tried to keep all options open for the future, depending on where hydrogen technology goes, depending on where battery technology goes, and depending on where overhead electrification goes. But, clearly, decisions will have to be taken in the medium future as to exactly what the plan for those is. 

So, what sort of time frame would we be looking at? I know that the procurement has happened, and it is what it is. But, that being the case, and things having moved on much quicker, we need to move much quicker as well. So, is there likely to be a big time lag between the rail fleet that we are procuring moving into the space that we'd like to occupy, which is reduced carbon emissions?

If you were to look at the most efficient way of doing it, the most efficient way of doing it would be to do it as part of what they would call a midlife refresh of the units, which would probably be 10 years out. If we took the view that that's too long, then I think it would require additional investment to do something about that. The key thing I think we could do to reduce carbon emissions from the network as a whole, though, and we should balance all of these things together, would be to try and maximise modal shift and to ensure that we have got as many people on the trains—in an environment that you would want to be in, not cramped—but as many people on the trains to reduce carbon per mile, per person, as possible.

So increased capacity, reducing carbon by other modes of transport—like one person in a car, for example.

Yes.

Okay.

I'm just saying I think that would be a more cost-effective route in the first instance.

So that means then we've got to make it attractive to people—

To use the train, yes.

—and I'm sure that you're working on that, but I'm not going to ask you that. This is the question I want to ask you: I want you, if you can, to give us more information on the dedicated innovation centre that you're establishing, and you've referred to it in your paper.

The innovation centre has been established. I think, at the minute, we would probably view it as a pilot, because it may not be as effective as we want it to be, and we may therefore want to use that money for something else that's more cost-effective in the future. But the idea—and it has been used elsewhere—is that we come up with a series of challenges, and that those challenges are put to individuals and small businesses, who have some support to develop potential solutions. And, if those solutions meet our needs, we then buy them off them. I guess, in some ways, it's probably very similar to some of the projects you will have seen that Sir Terry Matthews runs with Wesley Clover. The big difference is we are not doing this for a business perspective, although people will get business off us, and we're not looking to take any equity stakes, or put any grant money in those businesses. We're saying, 'We'll work with you to come up with ideas; if those ideas are things that we want to buy, we'll then buy them off of you.'

And those ideas are—

Things like apps. There's a good example, Gareth, around the tree—I know it hasn't come out of that, but it's a type of example; if you can give the example around the videos and the trees.

In terms of devegetation, those of you who use the public transport system, or the train system, there is an app that you should now use to identify trees on the route that are causing problems, in terms of potential collapse, vegetation issues in terms of the regularity of the trains and/or to protect the safety of the public. Another example that we've got, probably, James, is the photovoltaic stations. We've got the university working on a way that we can have efficient photovoltaic stations that provide power for both the signage and the actual lighting on the platforms and on the station canopies.

Okay. I look forward to more innovation in the future. Thank you.

Bethan, you want to come in.

Two quick questions. The first one is what you said to Joyce Watson in relation to the target. What would be the target for decarbonisation on the main line if electrification had extended to further parts of Wales? And the second question is something that has concerned me this morning, from hearing from Cardiff Airport, which is that they have told us that figures on decarbonisation in the rail industry are based on the fact that the—well, the tracks that the research has been based on are electrified, but then they said that this doesn't recognise that a lot of those routes are still diesel trains. Does that mean that the research, or the data, is wrong or misleading? Because, obviously, if they're trying to tell us that flying is more environmentally friendly, because of the fact that some of these trains are still diesel, then I think that's something we all need to be aware of, and understand what the research is actually telling us.

I'd need to see the research, and I won't try and make stuff up that I haven't seen. But I would completely agree with you that we should try and be evidence-based in everything that we do. If we were being truly evidence-based, and if the outcome did say that, and it was tested, and that was the genuine outcome, then that would be, bizarrely, the right conclusion. I suspect—but I don't really want to conjecture—that that's based on a very low level of utilisation on some rural routes. And, if you think about it, if a train is—. Well, a train will weigh several hundred tonnes—

They were suggesting from Cardiff to Manchester— 

I think we need to take that one—

—to take a flight instead of a train. 

Given the current utilisation of that route, which is not where we want it to be, and the obvious overcrowding that we are dealing with, I doubt very much that the carbon per person is particularly high on those routes. 

Okay. Well, we can share that research with you, because we haven't seen it either, but I'm just very curious. 

Yes, it would be good to look at. So, when we've looked at it compared to cars, even with the existing fleet that we have got—and these are very rough figures that we just did in preparation for this—the existing fleet, for every percentage modal shift we would achieve, would see something like a 4 or 5 per cent reduction in overall carbon emissions from transport. So, air would have to be that much more efficient than cars. And I don't know where the latest data is. 

We'll get that information from them, because I think all of us, including yourselves, are interested to get to the bottom of this. But, we'll share that with you. 

And on the electrification targets?

So, on the electrification target, I think, if it was all electrified, and you were able to supply the electric in a carbon-neutral way, which, looking at the figures, I think it would be quite easy to do that, clearly that's 100 per cent. It's not as simple as saying it's pro rata, because it depends on how many people are using a particular line. So, the most efficient lines would be the most heavily utilised lines in terms of electrifying them. And that's where there's the best business case as well. 

But, at the moment, they're on 30 per cent. So, what representations are you making to the UK Government then—

A lot.

—and saying, 'Look, electrification means more than just that; it means—'?

Absolutely. The big issue is we do not have control over the infrastructure, and no power over the bodies that control the infrastructure. We're working, I think, quite effectively with them at a regional level, so this is not a complaint about Network Rail at all, but we do not have any influence or control over them, and we do not own the asset. But, doing something significant with rail will require a fairly significant investment in electrification, is our assessment. So, batteries will take us so far; hydrogen might be effective for some regional routes in the future, as long as it can be created in an efficient way and moved in an efficient way, but, at the minute, it looks like overhead line equipment is still going to be important for heavily utilised routes.  

Thanks. 

Vikki Howells. 

Thank you, Chair. Clearly, we can't get all commuters in Wales on to the trains, because there are so many parts of Wales that are not on the rail networks. So, Transport for Wales's work branching out into buses has to be key to looking at the decarbonisation of public transport across the country. So, could you give us an overview of the work that's being undertaken by TfW on bus services, and also, how decarbonisaiton and the requirements of 'Prosperity for All: A Low Carbon Wales' are reflected in that work? 

Okay. If I start with the final question. So, the decarbonisation piece is heavily written into our remit letter, not just in headline terms, but also, in quite a few of the sub-bullet points that are made in the remit letter—decarbonisation comes through it. Therefore, it is at the heart of everything that we want to do. And, I think, the board of Transport for Wales, in addition to that, (a) recognises it's a good thing to be doing, so they want us to do it anyway, and (b), increasingly, there's a commercial incentive to do it, because younger people are factoring in how clean transport is when they're thinking about what mode they want to use. There's evidence suggesting that that is happening. So, for all those reasons, it's really important. 

In terms of bus, I think it is important to stress that, at the minute, our involvement is limited to providing some kind of planning and policy advice to the Welsh Government, and the bulk renewal of concessionary cards, which will have an impact for the future. So, the concessionary card technology will allow for some better integrated ticketing in the future. So, there is a thing other than renewing concessions. 

In terms of the policy work we're doing, in the main, we're focusing around supporting some advice for the Bill. So, why might it be a good idea to get greater control over the bus network via some form of re-regulation—we're doing work on that. We're doing work on what a national network might look like, which obviously you would have to have if you had a Bill and you had regulation, and what would efficient operation look like and how can you congestion bust, because the big issue with buses is they run on the same network, obviously, as the car does, and particularly in built-up areas, it's very difficult for the bus to out-compete the car. I think that's why we're not seeing the modal shift that we'd like to see.

And then, we're doing a series of small but important pilots, working with local government and with the health sector, looking at how we can get what we're calling 'demand-responsive travel', which is travel, as the name suggests, that is more demand-responsive to the user. So, the user would ask for a particular journey to take place, the journey will go as close to that route as it possibly can do, and as close to the time as they want it.

But, we're trying to utilise transport that would be used for non-emergency patient care and for school transport as well, because there are a lot of dead miles involved in all of that. If you add up the amount of money Welsh Government spends on all of that transport together, it's about £0.25 billion a year, and the number of dead routes we've got in that is not acceptable. I think I would say that having no control over the routes that we're subsidising for buses is, equally, a little bit odd.

Thank you. I'll come back to the demand-responsive trials in a minute, but based on the work that you've done to date, are you able to give us an assessment of the practical implications of implementing a target of zero-emission bus services by 2028? What are the key challenges there and how could they be overcome?

We've not been heavily involved in the modelling for that target. But, we have looked at it, because we recognise that the operational end of buses is going to come across to us, so obviously we're keeping an eye on what Welsh Government policy is and what that would mean. I think the headline answer we would give is, 'Everything is possible; the technology exists.' There are some constraints, potentially, around where bus depots currently are; can they get the grid in for electric vehicle charging; and is there enough space to fit the EV charging in, but we think all of that is surmountable.

Equally, the supply network for buses would have to step up. We think there are just over 2,000 buses in Wales at the minute, so there's a big number of buses to be replaced if the intent is to replace them all with EV buses. But I think the biggest challenge is probably one around finance and one around incentives to ensure that operators invest in the right technology and that they can afford to do that. Now, the UK Government has got a big role to play in this, because vehicle standards is a non-devolved matter, and that might be one of the things you'll want to talk to the Minister about, because I think Welsh Government needs to get as much out of the UK Government in this space as possible, and then incentivise around that to achieve its policy aims. I think it's achievable. It depends upon the level of ambition that we have to achieve it.

Thank you, that's very useful. So, going back to the demand-responsive travel trials, could you give us some more details around that, and thinking also about how far it's likely to support modal shift and decarbonisation and how scaleable those trials actually are?

I'll bring Gareth in in a minute just for some more detail on the trials that we're focusing on. I think it's important to stress that they are relatively small, and they are to test different concepts that haven't really been tested before. So, demand-responsive travel is not a new thing, it's being done all over the world. Mainly, it's failed, if you look at it. And from a conceptual perspective, and looking at the modelling, it's quite difficult to understand why it's failed, because you would think that it would be much in demand and it would work. I think one of the reasons why it has probably failed is that quite a lot of this activity has not been able to utilise subsidies that are available for normal bus routes. So, therefore, the commercial model is more difficult. A normal bus route is probably subsidised by about 50 per cent. If that's not in the mix, that makes it more difficult and integrating with other modes has proved difficult. But the thing that hasn't been tried, as far as we can see, at any scale and in different geographies, is trying to link up patient transport, school transport and bus transport. I think personally we should try and wrap taxis into the mix as well, and then, in theory, it should work. But, what I would say, and we can give you some examples of this, is, in a lot of the places it's been tried before, certainly in the UK, it has not succeeded to date.  

So, the three examples that we're looking at are actually Conwy, and we've currently got one going on in Pembrokeshire as well, and there's one due to start in Blaenau Gwent in mid 2020. So, it's still at a very early stage. Again, as James referred to earlier, in terms of congestion in the rural areas, they obviously serve the rural areas but, as they get into the towns, congestion can still be a problem for some of these systems, so we need to see how they work. I would imagine that, in some of the areas where it's failed in the past, it's probably the result of not prioritising the demand-responsive transport as the same issue you have with buses. So, I think the outcome of these trials will help us understand and possibly give local authorities thoughts for interventions to help make this a very effective use of a much more sustainable form of transport. 

Okay. So, do I read into that, No. 1, that for it to be financially viable you'd need some funding from local authorities, and, No. 2, it's too early to say yet whether it's scaleable? 

So, it's too early to say yet whether it's scaleable and, in terms of the funding, it will depend on what is found from the studies unfortunately. So, it probably or possibly could need that. 

It's going to need some kind of public subsidy. 

Correct. 

I don't know where—. We could discuss where that comes from, but I think it will need a public subsidy. 

Okay, thank you. 

Bethan Sayed. 

So, we're not involved. We're aware, and we're working alongside them on other things that are linked, but we're not involved in that project. I believe that is 60 buses that are going into Newport and/or Cardiff and they're funded out of the Office for Low Emission Vehicles from the UK Government. So, it's an important start, and for those two companies it's important, but it would be about scaling up on the back of that. 

So, if we just for a second take a step back, I think the biggest carbon impact that that will have won't be on the stations itself. It will be creating a network that people will want to use, driving modal shift. But if we focus on the stations, the type of things that we're trying to do on stations include microgeneration, storage of locally generated electric in batteries for use later on, stored rainwater, things like green walls and other initiatives, and every station is being run through something called the Green Dragon assessment tool to look at its carbon footprint, so we can try and bring that carbon footprint down. Gareth, do you want to—? I've probably missed a load on that. 

So, all the stations are going to be Green Dragon level 3. Our depots will be Green Dragon level 5. We've got a big enthusiasm from rail services colleagues to engage with this. So, rainwater harvesting, photovoltaic panels on a number of stations—there's a raft of things we're doing. With the construction of the new stations, all the new stations will be constructed using CEEQUAL, so, again, that's an environmental standard that measures carbon as well as waste, and 95 per cent of all materials are going to be reused on site. There's only going to be a target of 5 per cent going to waste, and hopefully we can even reduce that further. Both construction and operation—all aspects of our business, as well as our own corporate business—are going to be focused on our sustainability agenda.

So, yes, we're looking in terms of travel planning. So, there will be travel plans for the depot staff as well as for everybody else.  

They can get on the cramped trains as well.

Absolutely. So, hopefully, when we have more frequent trains, it won't be so much of a problem to get on the trains. As James said, it's our desire that they won't be quite as full as they are today. But again, we do want them to be full, because, obviously, that's a much more carbon efficient way of travelling, and we just need people to have comfortable trains to be able to use.

Someone else will ask the questions on modal shift, but, just briefly, what I'm hearing a lot of, albeit anecdotal, is that people, because of the situation of the moment, are turning to more carbon intensive ways of getting to work or getting to where they want to go, simply because of the stress of going on the train. So, how are you going to combat that in your planning when people are feeling—? If they don't make that modal shift and they go back to their cars, how are you going to get them back on the trains then?

I think it's a route-by-route approach and looking at what works on different routes. So, if you looked at most of the Valleys lines at the minute, there is clearly pent-up demand, and, actually, we're still seeing quite significant growth. So, for example, we've got a problem on the Aberdare line this morning, but at the minute we're running a pretty full service, and even when four-car trains are turning up all the time, they are rammed full. If you look at the car park at Taff's Well that I walked through this morning, there are people parked everywhere they shouldn't be parking, trying to park outside people's houses. So, there is still a lot of growth coming through. Clearly, if we were able to transport—. Therefore, I think, on those routes, if we could transport more people, we wouldn't have to do a lot to get more people to use the network.

Equally, on things like Birmingham and Manchester, that will naturally grow quite quickly. I think, on some of the other routes we will need to engage in behaviour changing activities to encourage people to do something different. Some of those routes might include some of the Marches routes, and some of the more rural routes, where, frankly, because there's less congestion, sometimes if you can get yourself into a pattern of not using public transport, you might think it's easier. You can listen to your radio or do whatever you want and think you're more comfortable, et cetera, et cetera, but that wouldn't be the case if you were trying to come down the A470 in the morning, for example.

I think we have brought in a series of measures. James will correct me if I'm wrong, but, in terms of encouraging young people to travel, that's been discussed—

That's coming later on this week.

And we've also got—

Pre-empting the announcment.

Sorry, my mistake. Sorry. Apologies for that. And we've also encouraged the over-50s to travel. So, our rail service colleagues have, obviously, got an offer for over-50s in terms of travel. So, if we can encourage people to travel and make use of the capacity of the train when it's not at peak times, it will also aid—

In an intergenerational way. So, that's the point about the young people stuff that will be coming later. It's trying to get people to use it when they're young, and not to have this artificial change at 16, 17, which we've had in the past. So, immediately people can drive, we put the price up for them to use public transport. It's not a very good incentive to carry on using public transport.

Thank you, Bethan. Oscar Asghar.

Thank you very much, Chair, and thank you, James, for showing us Cardiff depot a couple of months ago—we thoroughly enjoyed it. My question is regarding some supporting models. How will you achieve modal shift at the level required to meet the decarbonisation objectives?

The facts in front of you—and there's no point dressing them up if we're trying to be objective about this—are quite scary, I think. So, on the figures, I'm bound to get them wrong because they're not completely welded in my head—something like 96 per cent of all journeys are by private car. The vast majority of private cars are carbon-emitting vehicles. Rail is about 3 per cent of modal shift, albeit miles is quite a lot higher than that because people tend to travel for a longer distance on the train, and then the buses are in the mix, but, again, a low share. So, if we are saying that modal shift is an important part of carbon reduction, which, clearly, it can be—with some of the high-level, rough figures I was quoting, as a 1 per cent modal shift might reduce emissions in the sector by 4 per cent or 5 per cent—it's clearly an efficient thing to do. But it implies, I think, much greater modal shift than people have thought about in the past.

Thank you. And—

So, we're not—. The type of things—. When I've spoken publicly on it, I haven't, sort of, said this in committee before—and we haven't done this for a long time—but opening a park-and-ride with 200 spaces on a road that has got 70,000 vehicles moving down it every day and talking about modal shift probably isn't of the order of things we ought to be talking about. We would need to be thinking about a car park—if, indeed, a car park is the right thing—of 2,000 or 3,000 spaces, which would be a decked car park.

Thank you very much. The fact is that the committee has heard evidence highlighting the need to understand trends in transport demand and travel patterns. How might TfW’s work in developing transport models support decarbonisation?

So, if we do it right, I think potentially the most important thing for the future is modelling, and not just transport planning, actually; I would say land-use planning is important. So, if we as a society build houses and or public services in a way that doesn't allow for them to be accessed in a sustainable way, transport is always going to be playing catch-up. So, I think it's land-use planning, not just transport planning. But we are now building transport models that should allow for the whole region to be modelled, not just the impact of a particular road, as the problem is when you look at the impact of a particular road, you can just move congestion from one part of the network to another part of the network.

The other thing I think is worthy of some real proper look—and this is a UK as well as a Wales issue—is, if we're saying, which I think we are, that transport interventions are there to save the planet and to also generate economic activity, why are we still evaluating them on the basis of time saved and, an important thing, killed and serious injuries reduced? So, that was a 1960s road-building methodology that the transport industry is still using now to assess whether a scheme is a good scheme or not. We will be developing alternative methods, but if we were engaging with UK Government Treasury, at the minute they would say, 'We're not very interested in your new methods because we're still using the traditional transport guidance', but if you use transport guidance that was developed for a carbon-intensive road-building era where no-one thought carbon was a problem, I think you're always going to get the wrong answer.

Thank you very much. My final question is: Transport for Wales are undertaking work on integrated ticketing, public transport interchanges and active travel. Can the witness give an overview of these work streams, including any delivery deadlines, and outline how they might support modal shift?

Yes. If we start with the ticketing piece, the ambition here of our board is very high. There are a whole load of potential barriers, though, in achieving that high ambition. So, the high ambition is truly fully integrated ticketing across all networks, including park-and-rides, probably in a ticket-free environment. So, you would drive into a park-and-ride—hopefully in an electric vehicle—automatic number plate recognition would pick up the fact that you were in there, if it was a charged network, you would get charged without needing to do anything, your phone would have an app on it, you would walk onto the train, you would get automatically billed with a promise, with a money-back guarantee, that says, 'We will bill you the lowest possible fare for the journey that you're taking and, if you choose to come back on the bus, you can do so in the same way'. We will be able to do that on rail. With the powers that we have got at the minute, we won't necessarily be able to do that on buses. I think we will be able to make inroads into some bus companies, but it will be on the basis that the bus company is happy to work with us. That's ahead of any wider bus powers.

Now, other things linked to that that we're doing—so, the replacement concessionary cards that have all been issued have got the latest technology, which allows for stored value to be put on those. So, that could become the backbone of something that we do in this space as well. We are already running a tap-in, tap-out smartcard system on a pilot basis to Penarth, and that is about to be extended to the whole of the Valleys network. And I think that's all really good, but, for me, for it to really work, we've got to get it to work cross modal, and that requires, potentially, some of the powers that could be in a bus Bill that comes through.

The active travel piece—we're working with Sustrans to do two things. So, the vision is that Sustrans will be the guide of local authorities and a helping hand to develop schemes that actually work for people who want to use them. So, there's a lot of evidence in the past that, potentially, people design these schemes and build them who never use them. So, you'll get a cycle path with a barrier that you can't get through halfway down it, things like that. And then Transport for Wales will work more in an enforcement role to ensure that local government is doing what it needs to be doing. And when we take the administration of the grants over, which will potentially be later this year, that is what we will begin to do. I think I've left out one of the questions you asked.

No, I think you've covered everything. Thank you very much, James.

Thank you, James and Gareth, for your time this morning. I appreciate your time with us and your paper and more recent documents as well. Diolch yn fawr. Thank you, James, Gareth, and see you in the new year. With that, we'll take a five-minute break. We'll be back at 11:30.

There we are, we're public. Thank you. I do welcome Members back, and we were just discussing privately, but we should congratulate Rob, who's recently got married in the last couple of weeks.

Thank you.

Congratulations, Rob.

Do you feel any different? That's what everybody asked me, 'Do you feel any different?'

Oh, yes, fantastic. [Laughter.]

There we are. That's on the public record. [Laughter.] Right, okay, so I do move to the next item. This is our final session on the decarbonisation of transport. I'd like to welcome the Minister, Ken Skates, with us this morning, and your officials. Perhaps your officials could also just introduce themselves for the public record.

Hi. I am Simon Jones, director of economic infrastructure.

Dewi Rowlands, deputy director transport policy and strategy.

Thank you, and welcome to the meeting also today. We've had some really useful evidence sessions, and two today from Transport for Wales and Cardiff Airport, which I'm sure Members will dig into as well. Thank you for your paper, Minister, in which you've highlighted the scale of the challenge in meeting Welsh carbon targets and budgets. I wonder if you could outline the evidence base for transport decarbonisation policies and proposals that you've set out in your low carbon delivery plan.

Yes, absolutely. Thanks for the opportunity to join you this morning. We have huge ambitions in this area. The evidence is largely being gathered through the UK Committee on Climate Change. This is the first plan. The second plan, which will be developed in readiness for 2021, will contain far more detail. We've set the high-level aspirations with the first plan. The UK Committee on Climate Change has found that we're on course to meet the carbon budget for the first plan. As we develop that second plan we're going to be working with the likes of Cardiff University, developing more robust evidence. Indeed, I think it's policy No. 1 within the first plan that identifies the need to continue to develop a strong evidence base. We're going to be looking at certain tools for calculating emissions, we're going to be looking at a matrix tool for well-being as well, but in tandem with this I've been concerned with making sure that we, if you like, put the apparatus together to ensure that we've got the infrastructure to deliver against our aspirations. So, for example, proposals for reform and legislation of bus services, the creation of TfW, are all crucially important in making sure that we can deliver against the ambitions, and in the coming months I'm going to be making sure that we push more of the delivery elements of Welsh Government into Transport for Wales so that it creates space for more policy considerations. Because at the moment we just don't have all the answers, and I think we need to make sure that we utilise our expertise and our existing capacity in the best way in developing precise interventions, and also developing the costings and other detail.

And what level of assurance can you give us that the target emissions that you want to achieve will be achieved?

I'm confident that they will be achieved. Technology is moving at such an incredible pace, particularly in the field of automotive, but also in terms of aerospace—and rail, it has to be said. We've set out, I think, hugely ambitious but achievable aims for, for example, by 2028 having a zero-emissions bus and taxi and private hire vehicle fleet across Wales. We're already demonstrating how we're delivering against our emissions with the Wales and borders franchise agreement, which will see a 25 per cent reduction in carbon emissions by the end of year 5. One hundred per cent of the electricity that will be used for the metro services will come from sustainable sources, and 50 per cent from within Wales. So, I think we've demonstrated how we are making considerable adjustments in order to ensure that we meet those targets.

I think Members will dig in to some of the points you've just raised in that answer, but can I ask: when will the Government publish a clear, costed delivery plan including details of specific actions, funding sources, detailed targets and monitoring arrangements?

That will come as part of the work on the second plan, for delivery in 2021, but we also already have certain detailed plans relating to policies. In the first plan, for example, if you take EV charging infrastructure, there's a strategy that will be published during 2020, so in those discrete areas work is already under way.

And just to confirm, we're looking at 2021, and I'm just reading this list out again: there will be a costed delivery plan, details of specific actions, funding sources, detailed targets and monitoring arrangements, and that will all be included in the second plan in 2021. Is that right?

Yes, that's the aim—for 2021, the second plan. I think—. Sorry, Chair, I should also point out that we actually do have, in certain areas as well, already very clearly stated budgets, for example, in terms of rail, within the franchise agreement, the investment that's going into the metro, and so forth. So, already there is a good chunk of evidence and costings available.

Okay. And how did you assess the affordability of making all buses, taxis and private hire vehicles zero emission by 2028?

So, that will come as part of the work on the second plan. The first plan was to set the direction, to set out the ambitions, and now we're working through in greater detail how we're going to be delivering it, including the cost of switching the entire fleet. There are a significant number of questions that we need to answer, and we can only do that by working with industry.

And what sources of funding, both private and public, will be available to support the delivery of the targets? I'm talking about taxi and private hire vehicles there.

Okay. For taxi and private hire vehicles there's already, I think, a £7,500 grant available from the Department for Transport. We'll be considering whether additional incentives need to be utilised and need to be offered by us.

In terms of taxis and private hire vehicles, we are now pretty much at the point of parity in cost of ownership over the lifetime of a vehicle between electric and diesel. Up until now, private hire and taxi vehicle operators have been more inclined to purchase diesel, because of its lower cost over the lifetime of the service. That has changed quite considerably and, as new products enter the market, as European regulations concerning emissions become even more stringent and strict, more vehicles will be produced that are more efficient, are zero carbon and, as a consequence, we would also expect a degree of cascading to take place within the used car market, with more cars available that are pure electric or electric hybrid. 

Can I just check, then, you've set the targets, and you've talked about how you've set the targets in your earlier answers, but the cost for delivering those targets you haven't yet worked on.

No, not yet, no. To take Brexit as a comparator, you first of all set the ambition, you ask the question, 'What do you want to do?' And that's what we've done with plan 1. Then, you look into the detail of how you're going to be delivering it, with the costs. But in terms of taxis and private hire vehicles, I think there are something in the order of 2,300 across Wales. 

That's buses. There are 10,000.

Sorry, that's buses. There are 10,000 taxis and private hire vehicles across Wales. They have a relatively short lifespan because of the number of miles. So, we'll be seeing a large number of vehicles become redundant from use in the next eight years. The key is in ensuring that operators then purchase, ideally new, the most efficient vehicles with greater ranges, but that they certainly purchase electric vehicles. And there are already the grants in place from the UK Government—

The point I was making—and sorry to interrupt—was that, in most Government policy, you would set a target and the costs would be attached to that. That isn't the case this time. 

Not yet, no.

Okay. Joyce Watson. 

Good morning, all. A lot of this, of course, will depend on individual behaviour—getting people out of diesel and petrol cars and moving those into electric vehicles. So, how practical is it for Government to influence that?

In all fairness, it's probably far easier for UK Government to influence that because of the levers that it holds onto, particularly with regard to vehicle duty and vehicle excise duty. Vehicle excise duty is a regressive tax. Those who can afford to buy the most modern, let's say Euro-capped diesel cars or electric cars, will have to pay the least. So it's a regressive tax. As we see the transition accelerate towards electric vehicles, then we will see a significant reduction in the fuel duty that's raised by UK Government and vehicle excise duty. Will the UK Government do nothing? I'm sure it won't. I'm sure that it'll be looking at this because of the amount of money that's raised. 

At the moment, there are about 1.5 million cars in Wales, and about £1.9 billion is raised from them through fuel duty and vehicle excise duty. So, clearly, the UK Government's going to have to look at how revenue can be raised from car usage in the future, as we transition to zero emissions. I think it's important that that work takes place as soon as possible. Certainly, for my part, I'm commissioning work to look at what further can be done in the devolved arrangements to incentivise the switch from the internal combustion engine over to electric. 

And, of course, the other part of that is people being able to access the infrastructure that they will need, and there's a whole debate—and this is not in my question—about who pays for that. I don't know about you, but I do know about me, I don't think anybody would actually think it was a good idea for us all to be subsidising petrol stations, for example. So, what sort of conversations have you had beyond Government?

This is a subject that we discussed some months ago about how we invest in EV charging infrastructure, and I outlined that we expect the market to pay first. Since April, we've seen a huge increase in the number of EV charging points across Wales. I think the figure back then was something in the order of 650, and now it's over 900. So, a vast increase in a very, very short period of time. What I want to make sure is that we use our assets in order to incentivise the market to develop and deploy the most advanced EV charging points as soon as possible, and that includes car parks and it includes railway stations. Discussions are progressing very well, but we also wish to see the deployment of EV charging points that can be used across different vehicle types as well. 

And also, it's an opportunity to make some money for Government and local government—

Yes, and make sure that we also develop— 

—and the fuel behind it.

I'm moving on because we're short of time. The other evidence that we've received, of course, is that we could look at other forms of low-carbon fuels being adopted, not just electric. So, do you see a role for those in the delivery of this agenda?  

There is a potential role in the near term. I would question whether there is a role in the longer term because of the adverse consequences of producing alternative fuels, such as biofuels. If we were to move towards those in quite a dramatic way, those alternative fuels, what implications would there be for parts of the world that would have to grow and produce the sources of those fuels? Would we see vast swathes of the Amazon reduced to nothing in order to grow the materials, the produce that then goes into those fuels?

I think it contributes in the near term, but in the longer term, it doesn't provide the answer that we wish to see, which is a shift to zero emissions where the production of fuel and the production of vehicles contributes as little carbon as possible as well. 

Okay. And I know I'm not supposed to but I'm going to: where we access the cobalt, of course, within that, for any batteries, for me—and I'm sure for everybody else—is hugely important, in that we don't end up hoovering up the sea beds so that, actually, everything's dead, but we won't know because we can't see it. 

There are big ethical concerns that I think we're yet, as a society, to get to grips with: how we get hold of the cobalt and the lithium; who benefits from mining and from extraction; how do we do it in a way that doesn't exploit humans? How do we do it in a way that doesn't damage the environment? How do we dispose of lithium batteries, and so forth? All of these are really important concerns and considerations. Next week, we're hosting an automotive summit, where we're going to be discussing the future of the sector. These are the sorts of questions that I want us to grapple with right now so that, in three or five years' time, we don't face a huge backlash because we haven't dealt with the very important ethical issues at the first stages.

I also think that we need to consider further the role that hydrogen could play, and also recognise the fact that the manufacturing process for any vehicle is carbon intensive. I think it's estimated that you could run the latest Euro-capped diesel car for eight years and emit the same sort of carbon that would be generated through the manufacturing process of a new electric car. So, let's not believe that the transition to an electric car is carbon zero in the entirety of its life, because the manufacturing process is quite intensive.   

Thank you. 

Bethan Sayed. 

Sorry, just so that I understand the question. The question is: are these the first generation, or are these the first that are being brought into use in Wales? 

Yes. Is this the first 60 that are in existence anywhere in Wales, or am I missing some information somewhere?

We believe that the first 60 are in operation, but we're also going to be funding the pilot scheme in Pembrokeshire, which is a community transport scheme, we're going to be buying the fleet of green vehicles there as well. There are 2,300 buses across Wales, so a significant number of buses that we need to take out of service in the next nine years, and ensure that we've got the electric vehicles there available. 

Okay. Well, first of all, we're going to bring in the reforms and legislation, which will take control, through the legislation next year, from operators and put it in our hands—control over emissions, the level of emissions that can be sent out of exhausts from buses. We will be able to use franchising, we'll be able to use quality partnerships, and we'll be able to use the funds that we offer the industry to drive the transition.

We'll also be working with the Development Bank of Wales on how innovative funding support can be utilised as soon as possible. We need to discuss with the industry itself the sorts of contracts that are already in place, and how and if they need to be severed or terminated. We need to assess where overall cost of the transition would sit, and how the split in the support would be levelled; to what extent would we get involved; to what extent are costs coming down because technology is advancing at a considerable pace.

But between the legislation, reforms and the money that we already put into the industry, I'm confident that we will have—we will have—significant sway in order to get that transition by 2028. Simon? Sorry, Dewi. 

We recognise that affordability for community transport is an issue. That's why we've got this pilot operating in Pembrokeshire; that will inform whether we can roll it out across Wales. We'd need to carry out an assessment of what the cost of replacing all existing vehicles with electric vehicles would be, or, as an alternative, whether vehicles can be retrofitted with batteries and electric motors, which I certainly wouldn't rule out. I think there's a huge opportunity for the industry. By outlining what our ambition is in Wales, we are offering the industry an opportunity to respond and to grow a new market within Wales. I should just mention again that, even if it was not for our ambition, there would still be a need for motorists, for taxi and private hire vehicle operators, for bus operators, to acquire far more efficient low-carbon vehicles, because of EU standards. And those standards are going to get tougher in 2021, and progressively tougher through to 2025. That will necessitate—as long as we retain those standards—a move by the sector itself. Now, what we're saying is that we wish to see every single one of those vehicle carbon zero by 2028, and we will assess where and how we should intervene with financial support.

Yes, and the elephant in the room, of course, is that the taxi element is not going to be part of this legislation now. And they are telling us that, in relation to decarbonisation—for example, I know Cardiff has its own target. How do you square the circle with the fact that, if there is no White Paper that includes taxis, you're still going to be getting taxis coming in from Newport, who may not have the same target as Cardiff, and thus making any target, or any work that Cardiff Council may be wanting to do, nigh on irrelevant? So, I think I'm equally as angry as them about the fact that they have been dismissed from this, because they should be in there. And what efforts are you going to make, if they're not in this legislation, to make those changes anyway?

I totally appreciate what you're saying and what the sector has said. We're working with the Welsh Local Government Association, looking at how we can bring forward proposals to address what the legislation would have addressed.

Why can't they just be in the legislation? Why exclude them?

It would have been a huge Bill, which would have been incredibly difficult.

So what?

Given the time constraints, and trying to get that legislation through, it would have been a monumental challenge. And we believe that, through working with the WLGA, and the industry itself, we can bring forward proposals to improve safety, the environment, accessibility, customer experience. And within that work, cross-border working will also be considered. And then, in the next Assembly term, once we have brought forward those proposals—hopefully implemented those proposals—if further legislation is required, then we would certainly be considering that.

Just to end, they have been engaging for quite some years now. To say, then, that it would be too big to include them is not going down very well with the sector. What do you mean by working with the WLGA? Are you having a separate convention, or what avenues are you pursuing, so that they can be satisfied that that's going to be equally as robust as not being in the legislation?

They're part of the work. It's with WLGA and the industry that we're going to be considering proposals. They are part of that work.

Can we see that, then, as a committee? Can we know exactly how that work is going about?

Yes, I don't see why you shouldn't. Absolutely.

And we can share that information. If we go back to the White Paper consultation, the responses from the industry were that we weren't going far enough. And that's why we've stepped back. We're now working with the industry—

To delay it more. So, they say you're not going far enough, so you're delaying it more.

No. We are working with the industry, we're looking at the four areas described by the Minister there, and we're looking for quick wins. So, on the environmental one, where [correction: when] we look at the licensing regime, and the standards of vehicles that go along with that regime, then there's an opportunity, obviously, and we will need to look at how cross-border working is being managed. So, we are working with them. We are looking towards achieving quick wins. If we need to go into a new piece of legislation, that will obviously take time. But what we are intending, by working alongside the industry, and licensing authorities, is that we will achieve quick wins in the meantime.

Okay. We've probably exhausted this area, but I think there's an offer of providing some additional information and explanation. Vikki Howells.

Thank you, Chair. Focusing on the decarbonisation of rail—firstly, what are your views, Minister, on the findings of the UK rail industry decarbonisation taskforce report? And how do you think that that work may apply to us here in Wales?

Well, I'd agree with what's contained within the report. It requires the UK Government to now develop a plan. We would expect to be part of the work that's required in order to achieve just that. There's also a lot going on in the rail industry at the moment with the Williams review, looking at the extent to which additional powers and funding should be devolved. If we did have the full devolution that we ask for, including the funding, then we could go much further in terms of decarbonisation of the rail network. At the moment, we've been able to demonstrate our ambition and our determination. But, clearly, if we were to get more powers and funding, we could improve infrastructure, and we could develop new railway lines, we could open existing, or redundant, railway lines, we could open new stations. We could resolve some of the issues on the existing rail network that are curtailing the ability to be able to carry freight on the rail network—for example, the heights of bridges and the gauging challenges that are preventing us from carrying high loads on trains. We'd be able to look at how we could get into the mix freight with passenger transport as well. So, there are a huge number of areas of work that could be undertaken by us, if we had that devolution that we ask for.

So, that devolution, then, would it enhance our powers because we'd be able to increase capacity on the rail, both in terms of customers and freight, or is there any other way in which having those extra responsibilities would be able to assist us with the decarbonisation of the rail itself?

Okay, Simon, do you want to answer that?

So, I guess that Ministers would then have choices about things like electrification, and being able to do things like we're doing on the Valleys lines, where we've got discontinuous electrification, which is a much cheaper way, we think, of rolling out electrification to a much broader area, so you're not having to knock down dozens and dozens of bridges to rebuild them—you just run the wires under the existing bridge, in a safe way. So, were we given those choices, were we given that flexibility by having devolution, there are other things that we could do that would drive down the actual operation of the railway, but, as well as that, to be able to do the kinds of things that the Minister's talking about here, which would potentially broaden the reach of railway, to encourage more people to get out of their cars and travel by train as well. So, it's a kind of two-pronged attack.

I think it's probably worth highlighting, Chair, that there will be a remit letter going to Transport for Wales that will concern the targets up to 2030. Perhaps we can provide the committee with further detail as soon as possible.

Sure. Of course. That remit letter is published every year anyway, but that will be pulled together over the next few months. And when that's finalised, we'll make sure that the committee sees it.

There have been some issues with seeing the remit letters, but this year we'll see it—or next year we'll see it. By what date?

The aim is to have the remit letter in place for the start of the financial year.

Right, okay.

Dewi.

The recommendations in the report were sensible ones, and, obviously, you need strong governance, you need clear targets, you need to monitor those. But, importantly, Welsh Government should have a seat at the table, because it could impact in what is, obviously, a devolved area. So, it would inevitably have implications on rolling stock. It may well require investment in our infrastructure, to increase capacity, improve journey times, to have more trains on the network. And there's a big risk—unless we do get control over infrastructure, there's a big risk that Wales will be left behind with this transformation. It is really important that we don't put ourselves, or end in that position.

Okay, thank you. And I was going to ask as well, what objectives you set out, Minister, for Transport for Wales in considering the potential for future rail decarbonisation beyond current commitments. Would that be covered in that remit letter?

Yes. And there are break points as well, in years 5 and 10, that would enable us to increase the targets.

Thank you. And my final question—I think you've probably covered this, but I'll just ask it anyway, in case there's anything else you wanted to add: what was your assessment of the long-term potential for further decarbonisation of Welsh rail, over and above the current franchise commitments?

That relates directly to what we could do if the Williams review was to conclude that we should have devolution, and then the UK Government to grant it. We could do huge, huge good for the railway network in Wales, and that's been endorsed by this committee and the Chamber.

Just to elaborate on the point that the Minister just made—so, in the contract that TfW are managing for us with KeolisAmey, there are break points to allow us to increase the targets for decarbonisation. So, the Minister talked about a 25 per cent reduction in carbon compared with the previous franchise. We can break into the contract to increase those targets at years 5 and 10, so there are options to put the onus on to the supplier to help us. The target that we went for was based on the technology that was available at the time that we were running the procurement. Clearly, the world moves on, which is why we chose to put those break points in the contract.

That's very useful, about the break points being used possibly to increase capacity, building on what we've learnt from the previous contract. It's really good to know that that environmental consideration is being taken care of as well. Thank you.

Thank you. Oscar Asghar.

Thank you very much, Chair. Good afternoon, Minister. My question is regarding potential for decarbonisation of freight, ports and aviation—those areas to cover. Academic research estimates that freight is the biggest contributor to carbon emissions—30 per cent to 40 per cent in Wales. It hasn't been mentioned in your freight policy or logistics. Why is that?

I think the focus of the plan has rightly been on public transport, because, actually, the vast majority of emissions come from the movement of people. In terms of freight, our policy has been, for quite some time, to incentivise the movement of freight by other methods, and we have been able to support that with £150,000 revenue funding for mode shift. But our ability to shift freight is greatly constrained by the lack of control that we have over the infrastructure of other forms of transport, and I've already talked about gauging bridges on the rail network, for example. So, in Wales, the height of containers is being constrained by the ability to actually get them under bridges. If we had the ability to invest in rail infrastructure, in the way that I've outlined, then we would be able to resolve that, and in turn we would be able to incentivise the transition of freight from heavy goods vehicles onto the rail network.

There is very little mention, that is what my point is, we're not talking rail here, we're talking freight, and the plan for freight is actually obsolete—it was in 2008, the last freight plan, and it's still existing. So, when is it going to be updated?

So, this is all part and parcel of the work that's taking place on the Wales transport strategy, which will be published next year. And the Wales transport strategy will introduce a sustainable transport hierarchy at the very heart of all of our considerations. And we will look at stretching all opportunities available for moving freight by the most sustainable method before we accept that it must be moved by heavy goods vehicles on our roads.

Perhaps it's just worth elaborating a bit on the point about what we can do in Wales compared with the rest of the UK. So, the logistics industry works on a UK footprint, so we can only really solve this problem if we work with our colleagues in UK Government to make this work, because a lot of the goods that are travelling around Wales start or end their journeys in another part of the United Kingdom. So, whilst we might be able to set some standards for ourselves in Wales, if those standards aren't replicated across the border, it makes life really difficult. So, there's a real need for us to work closely.

So, you want to set up your standard first and then negotiate with the British—

I think it's a collective effort to make sure that we are pulling in the same direction. Because if we start pulling in opposite directions, the way that the logistics industry works will mean that Wales will lose out as a result of some of these tensions.

Okay, thank you.

We met with the rail freight group yesterday and we were discussing the rail freight strategy. It is obviously very dated by now. And we did discuss the need, really, to build our freight policies into that wider transport context, because freight—we need to understand our port policies, our policies on aviation, because of the overlap between what we're talking about here. And we will work with the industry now to try and ensure our policies are fit for the future, and we've already started looking at the kind of evidence base that we need to support that kind of development. And we're looking as well at commissioning now further work to look at consolidation centres across Wales, and that's really important if we want to take road freight away from where it is now.

The ink hasn't dried yet, you only met them yesterday, so hopefully you'll update us in the future anyway on what, actually, the outcome is going to be there. How does the Minister respond to the suggestion that the low carbon delivery plan should be giving greater attention to ports and aviation, given that the Welsh Government owns Cardiff Airport and that port development policy is now largely devolved?

Gosh, there's a lot in that. First of all, responsibility for shipping is a reserved matter. It's not just a UK issue, it's a global issue, and so we need to be very conscious of standards that are set for UK and the global environment in terms of shipping.

In terms of ports, yes, the vast majority of ports now are devolved, but we need to make sure that there's alignment between the way that we develop the ports and any changes that take place globally in terms of standards. For example, if there is a rapid transition to the use of other fuels for shipping, then we would need to make sure that our investment in any ports and investment by the private sector is perfectly aligned with the type of fuels that are utilised by the industry, and so we can't remove ourselves from what is a global matter. 

In terms of airports, clearly, we have Cardiff Airport in our ownership. We can make a significant difference and we are making a significant difference, and I want to see Cardiff Airport become the exemplar airport in the UK for low carbon aviation. We've already seen great strides taken by Cardiff international airport in reducing its carbon footprint, a reduction of—correct me if I'm wrong, Simon—about 53 per cent in the last eight years. A number of measures have been introduced by the airport to reduce carbon emissions. Further steps are going to be taken to roll out more electric vehicles across the airport, the introduction of a solar facility as well, generating power. All of these interventions are designed to reduce the carbon footprint of the operations of the airport.

But also, in addition to that, the airport is introducing and encouraging change in the way that aircraft approach and leave the airport, for example, encouraging pilots only to use single engines rather than twin engines when they're taxiing. And there are big differences that can be made when you approach a landing strip as well, in terms of the emissions that are given out by an aircraft, and the airport is working with operators to make sure that emissions are kept to an absolute minimum. In conjunction with this we're working with Airbus in particular, but the industry as a whole, as they move towards the development of electric and hybrid electric aircraft.

Airbus have already outlined their 2030 vision. Tomorrow, we'll be opening the advanced manufacturing research centre up at Broughton. The anchor tenant will be Airbus. They're going to be developing, if you like, a test facility that is live for the wing of tomorrow programme. They are utilising more and more advanced composites in the manufacturing process for aircraft. So, I'm confident that we will see in the coming years a rapid transition within the aviation sector, as we have seen within the automotive sector. And I want to make sure that we work with the sector as much as possible and secure as much economic benefit from that transition for Wales as we can. 

Thank you very much. My question is to you—. Regarding the four corners of Wales, three are water, so you can imagine maritime planning is more important than anything else, and the Irish Government, the Republic of Ireland, have got a very strong strategy of decarbonisation of their sea ports, because it's all covered on this island. So, we should learn something from them. Have you got any plans to engage the UK Government on its 'Clean Maritime Plan' and Wales? 

Sure, sure, and that sets out the ambition for carbon zero by 2050. There are levers in their hands that could be used in quite radical ways, if they so wish, in order to advance the transition. They could use tax-based incentives, they could change regulations, they and we could look at the infrastructure of ports as well. Our work with UK Government I think is very proactive and productive, particularly with OLEV and with the Wales Office in this regard—I think it's been very constructive indeed—and also with the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. I recently met with the Secretary of State for BEIS, Andrea Leadsom. I suggested that we had an exchange programme of sorts so that we can share expertise across Governments, so that we have a direct conduit into what's happening within BEIS, particularly with regard to the opportunities in the UK industrial strategy, and so that BEIS, UK Government, have a greater insight into what we are doing here in the Welsh Government.

Thank you very much.

Thank you. Hefin David.

With regard to the UK Committee on Climate Change's call for a modal shift away from cars—in fact, to reduce car mileage by 10 per cent—what are the bold steps, bold political steps, you're taking to achieve that in the Welsh Government?

We've vastly increased the amount of money that's made available for active travel. I think it was less than two years ago that I said in the Chamber that I'd like to see Wales spend per head what Scotland spends per head on active travel, but that it would take time. And we're now at the point of the Welsh Government being able to spend something in the region of £14 per person on active travel. That is not far off at all what is spent in Scotland, £44 million. The fund has increased quit considerably over time, and also, within our capital and our revenue budgets, a very considerable sum is allocated to active travel and to public transport as well.

It's a lovely idea, active travel, but it puts the emphasis on the individual to engage with it. If you're going to reduce car usage, it also requires more direct disincentives for car use, which could be politically difficult and unpopular, and we're entering that period of time now.

Yes, they could be politically difficult if there are no viable and affordable and reasonable alternatives, and in order to, if you like, depoliticise what will be required, what may be required, it's important that we invest in the infrastructure that enables, for example, buses to operate punctually, that they're affordable for passengers, and that they get people from A to B quicker than a car would get people from A to B. It also means that we have to install the best possible infrastructure for active travel and support people to be confident to use that infrastructure.

Climate change is a pressing emergency, though, and, from my experience, that doesn't look imminent. Those options, those alternative options to getting into the car, do not look imminent in my community. 

Well, there are two things here. We are already investing record sums in active travel. We're also now increasing funding, revenue funding, for supporting people to undertake active travel whenever and wherever possible—training, advice and support. UK Government, as I outlined earlier, has a critical role to play in this regard in terms of incentivisation through, and disincentivisation through, the taxation system. I've already said that I'm commissioning work to look at what we can do within our devolved powers as well to incentivise.

But it doesn't seem imminient.

All of this is either taking place or we'll be reporting back very soon, or is already being delivered.

How long before I'll be able to ring up a bus to collect me to take me to where I need to go? 

This is interesting, because we are already funding a number of pilot schemes for demand-responsive transport. Where they've already been in operation, they've proven very successful indeed. Through legislation and the reforms that we've published, next year, through introducing the Bill to the Assembly and hopefully getting it passed, I would expect a step change then to take place. 

Can I tell people in Caerphilly that they'll be able to see it in a year's time?

In a year's time? It depends on the programme within the Assembly Chamber and the deployment of new demand-responsive services. I couldn't promise at this stage that Caerphilly, precisely—

Let's not be parochial, then.

But there will be—. There will be services that people will be able to use in the coming 12 months that are based on demand-responsive bus travel. 

Okay. That's helpful to know. And what about those things that we still will need? I'm still not entirely convinced that the utopian options will be solving all the problems, because there are still things like limiting car use through workplace parking levies. We debated it last week. The Welsh Government abstained, I think, on that motion—and so did I, to declare an interest. And also—. Workplace parking levies and congestion charging, those are two big things that you know, as soon as you see them in the news, you're thinking, 'All right, okay, I'd better get prepared for this', but, nonetheless, they have an effect. How do you feel about those kinds of ideas?

I gave a lengthy response in the Chamber last week and said that these were all tools that could be utilised by local authorities—

Would you be happy to see them in your constituency? Would you be happy to see that happen?

Well, we don't have a very large urban area in my constituency. 

Okay. In my constituency, would you be happy to see that happen?

I would take advice from yourself. [Laughter.] No, but this is—. My point is this is in the hands of local government and I wouldn't want to direct a local authority.

Okay.

I really wouldn't. But what I should say is that, if we take workplace parking levies as an example, introducing a measure such as that without also, in tandem, in parallel, or ideally beforehand, improving opportunities for people to avoid having to drive into work is a key factor that needs to be considered. 

Okay. So, what you're saying to me is those stick options on their own you wouldn't approve of if they weren't accompanied by a step change—

I think that they must be accompanied by improving the provision and the capacity of alternative forms of transport. And this is why I keep going back to the role that UK Government has in this regard. It needs to look at the taxation system that it applies to car usage, and, in my view, it should be looking at how it can tax those journeys that are not absolutely necessary rather than at the moment have a blanket tax on all journeys.