Y Pwyllgor Plant, Pobl Ifanc ac Addysg
Children, Young People and Education Committee
02/04/2025Aelodau'r Pwyllgor a oedd yn bresennol
Committee Members in Attendance
Buffy Williams | Cadeirydd y Pwyllgor |
Committee Chair | |
Carolyn Thomas | |
Cefin Campbell | |
Joel James | |
Natasha Asghar | |
Vaughan Gething | |
Y rhai eraill a oedd yn bresennol
Others in Attendance
Hannah Wharf | Dirprwy Gyfarwyddwr yr Is-adran Cymorth i Ddysgwyr, Llywodraeth Cymru |
Deputy Director, Support for Learners Division, Welsh Government | |
Jack Sargeant | Y Gweinidog Diwylliant, Sgiliau a Phartneriaeth Gymdeithasol |
Minister for Culture, Skills and Social Partnership | |
Jo Salway | Cyfarwyddwr, Partneriaeth Gymdeithasol, Cyflogadwyedd a Gwaith Teg, Llywodraeth Cymru |
Director, Social Partnership, Employability and Fair Work, Welsh Government | |
Lynne Neagle | Ysgrifennydd y Cabinet dros Addysg |
Cabinet Secretary for Education | |
Ruth Meadows | Cyfarwyddwr Addysg Drydyddol, Llywodraeth Cymru |
Director of Tertiary Education, Welsh Government | |
Vikki Howells | Y Gweinidog Addysg Bellach ac Uwch |
Minister for Further and Higher Education |
Swyddogion y Senedd a oedd yn bresennol
Senedd Officials in Attendance
Claire Thomas | Ymchwilydd |
Researcher | |
Jennifer Cottle | Cynghorydd Cyfreithiol |
Legal Adviser | |
Manon Huws | Cynghorydd Cyfreithiol |
Legal Adviser | |
Michael Dauncey | Ymchwilydd |
Researcher | |
Naomi Stocks | Clerc |
Clerk | |
Sian Thomas | Ymchwilydd |
Researcher | |
Thomas Morris | Ymchwilydd |
Researcher | |
Tom Lewis-White | Ail Glerc |
Second Clerk |
Cynnwys
Contents
Cofnodir y trafodion yn yr iaith y llefarwyd hwy ynddi yn y pwyllgor. Yn ogystal, cynhwysir trawsgrifiad o’r cyfieithu ar y pryd. Mae hon yn fersiwn ddrafft o’r cofnod.
The proceedings are reported in the language in which they were spoken in the committee. In addition, a transcription of the simultaneous interpretation is included. This is a draft version of the record.
Cyfarfu’r pwyllgor yn y Senedd a thrwy gynhadledd fideo.
Dechreuodd y cyfarfod am 09:32.
The committee met in the Senedd and by video-conference.
The meeting began at 09:32.
Welcome to today’s meeting of the Children, Young People and Education Committee. The public items of this meeting are being broadcast live on Senedd.tv and a record of proceedings will be published as usual. The meeting is bilingual and simultaneous translation from Welsh to English is available. Carolyn Thomas has sent her apologies for items 5 to 8. Cefin Campbell has sent his apologies for items 7 and 8. Are there any declarations of interest from Members? No, I can see there are not.
So, we move on now to agenda item 3, which is the last evidence session for the inquiry into routes into post-16 education and training. I’m very pleased to welcome from Welsh Government Lynne Neagle MS, Cabinet Secretary for Education—good morning—Vikki Howells MS, Minister for Further and Higher Education, Jack Sargeant MS, Minister for Culture, Skills and Social Partnership, Ruth Meadows, director of tertiary education, Jo Salway, director of social partnership, employability and fair work, and Hannah Wharf, deputy director of support for learners. Thank you for joining us this morning. There are a lot of you. [Laughter.] I now hand over to Carolyn, who’s going to start with our first questions. Carolyn.
Okay, thank you, Chair. Good morning, everyone. I’m going to ask you about advice and information for learners. We’ve heard strong evidence from both young people and stakeholders, including parents, saying that many learners are not getting good quality information about post-16 options, especially vocational routes, and there are concerns about it having a big impact on their choices going forward if they don’t know what’s actually out there. So, is that a picture you recognise and what’s your response to it? We also heard as well that youth services can have an impact as well, and the youth leader could be a good role model as well, or help with people, as well as parents. So, the survey, actually, that we did said that 70 per cent of parents were unhappy with the information that was provided; they felt a bit left out of the loop. So, what are your thoughts on this?

Okay. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Can I thank the committee for doing this important piece of work? I'll start and talk about the role of the curriculum in encouraging post-16 participation, and I'm also happy to cover the points that you made about the youth service.
Just to say, as a Government, obviously, we are committed to ensuring that learners are able to make an informed decision about their next steps and we want learner choice to be at the centre of all discussions around post-16 participation. Careers and work-related experiences are a key part of developing skills for work and life, and that's an integral part of the Curriculum for Wales. It's a cross-cutting theme for learners from ages three to 16, which supports a learner's journey through their decision making around careers from an early age, and I do think that it's important to recognise that the journey to post-16 education starts at the very beginning, in early years.
So, we had Estyn's thematic review in 2020, which highlighted competition between sixth forms and FE colleges, so, in September last year, we published statutory guidance for schools on 14-16 learning under the Curriculum for Wales, and that guidance sets out clear national expectations to help provide a consistent approach across all schools for this critical stage of learning. And key to that, then, is the 14-16 learner entitlement and that's the learning that we expect all young people in years 10 to 11 to benefit from under the Curriculum for Wales. We are expecting, as well, Estyn to look at that when they go into schools; we're not just leaving it to schools to implement. But we've also just completed a consultation on the learner entitlement indicators framework. That consultation has just closed. That includes asking about reporting against the opportunities for young people to discuss their post-16 choices and also destination data. So, that will be an important element of accountability in the system to make sure that that work happens.
I just thought I would say a little bit, then, about the support that we provide for careers and work-related education and then I'll bring Jack in, because Careers Wales plays a really important role in this. Careers Wales does now offer all year 11 learners in schools, pupil referral units, special schools and known home-educated learners a careers guidance interview to ensure that they're aware of their career pathway options. And as at the end of February, they'd seen 72 per cent of year 11 learners. Obviously, having careers and work-related experience in the curriculum is a really positive thing, but we need to make sure that that is actually delivered on the ground. As part of that work, Careers Wales offers a range of support to education professionals around careers and work-related education in the curriculum. They've also developed several professional learning resources for education professionals, and we've also got resources on Hwb as well. And—
Cabinet Secretary, can I just come in about Careers Wales, because you're covering lots of my questions in one massive go and I might forget to ask you something, if that's okay?
Yes. I'm not meaning to, I'm just trying to set out the curriculum—
No, no, it's fine. [Laughter.]
—and then I was going to hand to Jack.
Thank you. Just on Careers Wales, we've heard that sometimes it's a little bit inconsistent, the help that's being offered. We've also heard that the standard careers check that most learners get in year 10 isn't robust enough and can contribute to young people becoming not in education, employment or training. How does Welsh Government monitor the work of Careers Wales? And young people have also said that they have, maybe, initial help but nothing long term just to help guide them through.
Okay. Well, I'm going to hand over to Jack, but, just before I do that, because I was trying to explain that we haven't just left it to schools on the curriculum, that we have tried to put support in—. So, in addition to what I've just referred to, there's also a careers and work-related education toolkit that's been developed in partnership with the Career Development Institute and Careers Wales, and they also support curriculum co-ordinators who work with all schools to try and make sure that's embedded in our curriculum offer. But I'll hand over to Jack to talk about the specifics, because he leads on Careers Wales.

Thank you, Cabinet Secretary, and I thank Carolyn Thomas for those questions. I'll address the points on Careers Wales, and I'll just try and address two more points, Chair, if that's okay. So, Carolyn, I think, in opening asked around parents and the role that parents play in making those informed decisions by the young people of today. Careers Wales do have a parents strategy, which looks at how they engage with parents of young people in Wales to make sure that the parents are informed in those decisions, because there's very strong evidence out there that, when parents are informed, children then are also informed. So, there is a strategy around that, which Careers Wales have ownership of. I remember, when I was considering my options, businesses opening their doors. So, Airbus, in our constituency and region, opened their doors to me and my family, and that proved to be a real success, I think. And I think there's more space for that, particularly in the education business partnership, which is run by Careers Wales as well, and I'm happy to provide the committee with more information on that.
Carolyn then points to the longer term ambitions and strategies that we have. Well, we have our young person’s guarantee in Wales, and I'm sure the committee may have questions around that later on, but that's a really ambitious programme. It's a flagship programme of this Government, and that does go into support from Jobs Growth Wales, through Communities for Work Plus and so on, where it does engage at that level, I think, which Carolyn described.
The two other points I wanted to make, Chair, were: we have a priority in the Welsh Government on jobs and green growth. We know the opportunities that green skills for the future can bring to the Welsh economy. Lots of those are in advanced manufacturing. I was very pleased to be in the Valleys Tech programme—I think it was perhaps the end of last year—where, because of the investment from the Welsh Government, we are seeing students across secondary schools in the Valleys engaged in programmes that are looking at the next skills of tomorrow: so, AI, digitisation and so on. The level of competence that they are coming out with from that is quite remarkable. One younger student was very confident in telling me that I was doing the task wrong, so that's just, really, the standard of where they are at, and that's the investment that we're making.
And then the final point I wanted to make, Chair, which I think is an important point: with regard to vocational training, we see an apprenticeship week yearly. It's in February every single year, and the Welsh Government has supported the apprenticeship week for a long time. I'm sure that the committee will have been pleased this year to see the really intense focus from the Welsh Government, from the whole of the Cabinet, where we were showcasing on ministerial visits, in various different events, the opportunities out there in a range of sectors for not just young people, but in this case particularly young people, through the vocational route and making sure that apprenticeships are valued and they are on offer for people if they want to take that route. And one of the best ways of having good information is hearing directly from former apprentices or alumni, and we were able to do that in the ambitions of the apprenticeship week that we set out this year, and we'll carry that on throughout the year into next year as well. So, I think there are some real areas of focus there.
If I could just come back on Carolyn’s point about the youth service, I am a massive fan of youth workers and the role that they can play, and they absolutely have a really important role to play in ensuring that we support young people not to become NEET. We've got our youth engagement progression framework, which is a cross-Government framework, and that sets out how partners should work with young people who need support between the ages of 11 and 18, and lots of those lead workers are youth workers. I've met with them in a round-table and I was genuinely blown away by their commitment to holding on to young people, and how good they were at actually identifying all the young people in their area. So, there's definitely a really key role for youth workers and it's one that I'm really keen to build on, given the responsibility that I've got for youth work in the cabinet.
Thank you. Just a question back to the Minister, Jack Sargeant. The young person's guarantee has been really successful, and apprenticeships, but I think for young people knowing what careers are out there—and we're looking at pathways post 16—how do they know what jobs are out there? We've heard lots of positives about the Cardiff Commitment, and I know Anglesey have tried to look at something in a rural area, where they're working with businesses so that young people know what jobs are available in their local area. When I've been asking questions about that, I've been directed to the regional skills partnerships, but I'm not sure whether they're right or strong enough for that. So, I was just wondering: is there something—? Do you think there's the potential to roll out in other areas what the Cardiff Commitment is doing? So, that's local authorities working with higher education, working with jobs. Because we have regional similar things, don't we? In north Wales, we've got the North Wales Economic Ambition Board, which will be the corporate joint committee. So, is this something that you think could fill a gap and that we could work towards?
Thanks, Carolyn, for that. So, I think it does happen, and you referenced one particular area. I think we need to be clear about what certain organisations do do, and is that a role for regional skills partnerships, or do regional skills partnerships have a different role, perhaps, in engaging with employers and finding what are the skills that employers need for the future. But that's not to say there isn't a role for the right body to do that piece of work, and I think Careers Wales do do that. So, I mentioned earlier the education business partnership, which looks at a range of interventions from Careers Wales, bringing businesses and industry into schools, and I do think there's a space for more of that to happen to open the doors for young people to industries.
Careers Wales will be setting out their operational plan to Ministers, which is signed off by me, but they'll also be looking at what their longer term strategy looks like. Part of the discussion—I'm sure they'll be watching today with real interest—will be making sure that it's the right organisation doing the right type of work. I would perhaps suggest that regional skills partnerships are more focused, or should be more focused, on the employer engagement side, finding what the skills are tomorrow, rather than opening the doors to other areas. I think that that's for, perhaps, Careers Wales and others.
I've met with the Cardiff Commitment team, and it is impressive the work that they're doing, and I'm particularly interested in it from an additional learning needs point of view, because I think it's the kind of thing that can really help with the work that we're doing around inclusion. Obviously, we're looking at our ALN picture at the moment and we're trying to draw on that kind of project in what we're doing.
We've heard that work experience is particularly important to people with ALN, rather than just going down the academic educational route, and for many others as well. Finding your skill—it might not be on paper, maths and English, but through vocational routes. We've heard from the young people surveyed—we surveyed 300 young people—that only 24 per cent said they'd had a work experience opportunity, and that they would really value it, as well as knowing more about other jobs that are available. There was talk about learning trade skills, working with trades, and engineering. We've heard, though, about concerns that schools are unclear about Disclosure and Barring Service checks, insurance. So, we'd like to know who's the right person, or which is the right area, to deliver this work experience. Careers Wales might have done it before. I know it's struggled with cuts and things. Schools are struggling because of resources in the school as well. But it's really valuable, I think, just for that practical experience of working with people, working with customers, just gaining those practical skills. So, a question on that.
I think Carolyn is right when she talks about the importance of work experience. I think it's important to frame that into the right type of work experience as well, where young people are going into industry and getting the benefit of what that means. Obviously, there need to be the right safeguards in place, with the checks and health and safety regulations to overcome. It's a discussion I had with Make UK members just two weeks ago, in advanced manufacturing, about how do we open the doors. I think there's some further thinking around that that will need to take place.
Careers Wales do offer targeted work experience placements. The Cabinet Secretary and I are very keen for that to continue. There was an in-year injection of funding to allow targeted work experience placements to go ahead. We see the benefit of that. We've asked Careers Wales, in their latest funding round, to consider how that programme can continue within their existing budgets. They have confirmed that they will continue to provide targeted work experience placements, on a smaller scale, at present, Chair. But one of the things I've asked them to do in their future strategy is consider how that can become perhaps one of the things that Careers Wales delivers, with a more intense focus on providing all the benefits that Carolyn describes of work experience.
Carolyn mentioned the young person's guarantee. Again, it's worth saying that, since the introduction of that, over 48,000 young people in Wales aged 16 to 24 have been engaged in that programme. It's a real success story here. Vaughan, sitting next to you, led the way on the young person's guarantee. The work that he set out in 2021, as Minister for the Economy, we are seeing the benefits of that now for those young people who would otherwise be NEET; they are now engaged in education, employment or training. I think it's something to be celebrated, and the Welsh Government is proud to continue to support that.
Earlier, you touched on competition between providers. We have school sixth forms fighting for pupils, and then further education colleges as well, which has led to conflicts of interests, driven by schools wanting to retain the pupils. Pupils mean funding, don't they? How do we ensure that there is not competition and that there's advice, especially for parents as well? Because we heard that, very often, businesses would come in—well, not even be invited into schools or colleges, not invited into schools, so it would be an issue. I believe that, in England, there's what's referred to as the Baker clause. So, could you cover that?
I'll start on the issue of competition, and just say really clearly that, obviously, we want everybody to be putting the needs of learners at the heart of everything that they do. It shouldn't be about competition, it should be about what is best for young people. But I do recognise the challenges that you've outlined. One of the things that I think will help with that is our new 14-16 guidance, in particular the learner entitlement. That includes an expectation that schools allocate appropriate curriculum time for learners to look at those next steps and pathways, including time to plan for the transition. As part of that, we are expecting schools and settings to support young people to consider the full range of options that are available to them post 16, not just looking at their own sixth form, et cetera. But I'll ask Vikki to come in as well, because, obviously, Medr are doing some work on this.

Yes, absolutely. I think one thing I would say, drawing on my own experience as a former assistant head of a sixth form, is I think that really embedding that notion of parity of esteem is really so important. Because, often, what you do find within schools is an expectation that certain students with certain academic skills should naturally remain in sixth form, and that is not the way across Government that we want to look at this.
There are some really very valuable, wonderful vocational opportunities that our FE colleges offer, and we need to ensure that all staff within each section of the teaching profession really understand and value that, so that those barriers can be broken down and we can celebrate young people who say they have these predicted grades, but, actually, they'd really like to go to an FE college and do a vocational qualification or A-levels that may not be offered in their school sixth form. Or, for some, there is that need to have that change, to go to an FE college to do their sixth-form studies, which could be better for them.
If I can just come in particularly on the issue of the Baker clause, that makes provision in relation to a specific matter in England, and that's ensuring that schools allow colleges and training providers access to every student in years 8 to 13, to discuss those non-academic routes that are available to them. But there's existing legislation already here in Wales that includes a provision that requires this type of collaboration and co-operation between our schools and the post-16 sector, and I would argue that our legislation is better, because it's actually broader.
But from April 2026, Medr will be responsible for the formation of local curricula for learners aged 16 to 18, which is currently a function of Welsh Ministers. The Learning and Skills Act 2000, which provides for local curricula, requires local authorities, headteachers, college principals and governing bodies in schools and colleges to assist Welsh Ministers in planning the local 16 to 18 curriculum offer in a co-operative and collaborative way. So, we've already got that in legislation. Those powers will transfer over to Medr.
The recently introduced 14-to-16 learning guidance, along with Medr's strategic duty in relation to collaboration, are also really important aspects of this collaboration landscape. We've made it really clear to Medr that there's no room for competition; we need to drive that out and work on collaboration. So, it's very much an issue across Government that we're all engaged in, and Medr as well.
Thank you. Thank you, Cadeirydd.
Could I bring Vaughan in quickly here, and then Cefin, please?
I'm really interested in the discussion we've just had and something that the Cabinet Secretary mentioned earlier—bore da, Ms Neagle—on Estyn. We've seen evidence that the Baker clause doesn't mean that there's a consistent approach in England. Regardless of what the law says, there's still variation, and we've heard that directly in evidence as well. On a visit to an FE college, they described having good relationships with lots of schools, and then a medium tier, where they were allowed to see some students that the school had decided were appropriate for FE, and they weren't allowed to interact with others, and some where they just didn't get engagement at all.
I think the point here is not so much about the legislation, it's about the cultural change and how to get people not just to say in evidence in front of this committee that they do, and then go back and do something different. Because there are some people who see the protection of a sixth form as the ultimate aim, which isn't always in the interests of the learner. So, I'm trying to understand how you would expect to monitor that cultural change, the consistency in opportunities to understand what the right approach is for that learner.
But it goes into the Estyn inspection reports as well. I've just looked at three. I've looked at two that serve my constituency: Willows school in Tremorfa, where 56 per cent of pupils are free school meals entitled, and Fitzalan, where over a third are free school meals entitled. And because it's got a great name, I looked at Bishop Vaughan in Swansea, where a quarter of students are free school meals entitled. And, actually, there's a sentence in two of those reports. In the Fitzalan inspection report, which has the best inspection report from Estyn, they've asked them to come back in terms of sector-leading practice. It talks about progression into the school, and it talks about what happens in the sixth form. It doesn't talk about the range of advice and guidance.
I guess the difficulty is, if it's a small part of the inspection report, how do the parents and carers understand what the school is doing and what's appropriate? And going back to the pinch points in the journey, but also when it's coming round to results, is there access for people, and is there access to the whole cohort? I'm not saying that Ministers can bang on the table and say, 'This must happen' at will; I was wondering how you expect, from your expectation and the guidance you're issuing, and how you want to monitor with Medr and Estyn, how that is effectively highlighted, and progress. And I'm not saying you have to have all the answers now, but it's about what that journey should look like.
I think you've hit the nail on the head, because it's a culture change, and culture change is one of the most difficult things, isn't it? You can have the best policies and not find them implemented on the ground. I think it's a bit of a journey that we're on in Wales, and I think it's about bringing lots of things together. It's about having Estyn looking at these things when they go into schools—and obviously, I have a regular dialogue with Estyn.
The consultation that I referred to on the learner entitlement indicators framework includes schools reporting on information on post-16 and transition planning in a school. That would be for school publication, so they would have to make that publicly available to parents. We, as a Government—and this is obviously all subject to the consultation—would report on the destinations of year 11 learners and also report on the learners with no qualifications.
But as well as that, obviously, we've had the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development work. We've worked with them for two years around these issues of pathways into post-16, and we've got a lot of work to do on the back of that that I think will really help with changing the culture. I think it's for us as a Government—. And things like the school improvement partnership programme, that's going to play a really important role when they talk to their schools about what they're doing, making sure that they are following this guidance. But I am very mindful that culture change is challenging and that we've got to stay on it.
Because we heard evidence about the funding formula being the problem, and yet we also see areas of Wales where they don't have a tertiary system. Merthyr has a tertiary system, so there isn't, if you like, competition, but in other parts of Wales, in the same local authority, there are better relationships than in others. There isn't one single bullet here to deliver that and understanding what works and why it works to deliver the culture change that you speak of. So, it will be really interesting to see what happens with the consultation and then how that feeds into the report and recommendations that I'm sure we'll make.
Before I bring Cefin in here, Jack, I'm just wondering, could we have a note from the Welsh Government, please, on the work Careers Wales are doing on the work experience and the scale of how much it could deliver? Is that okay?
I'd be happy to do that.
Brilliant. Thank you. I'll bring Cefin in quickly here.
Thank you. Very quickly, just going back to careers advice, you presented a fairly positive picture of the work of Careers Wales, and I'm not disputing that in any way, but we've heard strong evidence from young people and stakeholders saying that they haven't had the right information to make those choices for post-16 education. So, I'm just wondering how you square that circle. But more importantly, how does the Welsh Government measure the impact of the work of Careers Wales and the outcomes it leads to? That's basically what I'm asking.
I'm happy to take that up, Chair. Diolch, Cefin, for that. You're right in saying that some of the evidence that you've heard is that young people haven't quite had that experience that others have had. We should always look to continuously improve the offer of Careers Wales and other areas as well, and we shouldn't shy away from that.
When it comes in particular to monitoring of Careers Wales and the work that they do and provide, I think I mentioned earlier that I sign off their operational plan that comes to me annually. Ministers get sight of that, set against the priorities that we set Careers Wales. I will then, as the Minister responsible for Careers Wales, have quarterly progress meetings with them against those plans—but that's not to say that officials don't meet on a very regular basis to flag any direct issues that may be there.
I think I said earlier that they're in the process now, on the back of the final budget that has been set by and agreed by the Senedd, of setting out their aspirational plan for the year ahead, and we'll be taking them to task against that and working alongside them against that to make sure that there is value for money and to try and iron out some of those particular issues that you've raised. But there are the other interventions that we're making, aren't there? Apprenticeship Week is a good example of where, across the country, students would have been able to see former apprentices and former students just like themselves in areas where they're receiving that information. So, we are working to address some of those problems.
And in my opening comments, I was focused specifically on Careers Wales support for curriculum. I know that there is more we can do in this space, and there is definitely something about more consistent implementation as well.
If I can just go back to the work programme that you’ve agreed with Careers Wales, does that include improving work experience opportunities as well? Because, clearly, we’ve heard it’s only about a quarter of young people that get an offer of work experience.
So, I mentioned the targeted work experience programme, Chair, and that injection of cash that they had in-year to be able to provide a targeted work experience programme. Because of the importance that the Cabinet Secretary and I place on work experience, I’ve asked Careers Wales to include that in their operational plan going forward. I mentioned earlier, Cefin, it’s on a smaller scale within their existing budgets, but not only do we want to see that included, and they’ve agreed that it’s the right thing to do, we’ve asked them to think longer term. So, how does a programme like that become part of their strategy in the future? So, we are actively looking to support that.
Thank you. A quick question to the Cabinet Secretary, just for clarity, and this may already be happening, but are there any plans to communicate the learning entitlement to learners themselves, so they know what their entitlement is?
We will have to do that, and that's really important, that we put young people at the centre of these things. It's not due to come into force until September, in terms of schools actually implementing it. But, yes, we will definitely look to make sure that we publicise what young people's entitlement is, and I think it's really important that we do that to parents. And by publishing the information on Welsh Government websites, school websites, obviously that creates an expectation from parents that kids should have that offer.
Okay, thank you. Over to Vaughan, please.
Thank you. I should say before I start asking these questions that I was a Minister of the Government and I made funding choices that affected apprenticeship starts. However, I'm going to ask you about apprenticeship starts and the drop in numbers. So, the data published in February this year, showed that there were 4,380 apprenticeship starts in quarter 4 of 2023-24, compared to 5,715 in the same period in the previous year. So, I want to understand how much of that drop is in relation to funding, and how much of that drop or that change do you think is in relation to other factors about choices that young people are making. Although, of course, these are all-age apprenticeships, they're not all young people, and I say that as someone who is definitely not a young person anymore.
I'm grateful to Vaughan for the question. And I recognise also the difficult choices that Vaughan had to make as a Minister, when it came to apprenticeships—not easy decisions that the Wesh Government had to make during that time. And there were lots of reasons around those difficult choices, of which we are all well aware, particularly with the previous UK Government and the settlements that came across to this place, and also the impact of Brexit, where the European social fund was supporting the apprenticeship system in a way that is very difficult to replace.
Vaughan pointed to the particular areas in quarter 4 and some drops. I’m not as concerned as some might be. I think the data set just in the period that Vaughan references is a relatively small period, and we should look to a longer term data set there. I’m very clear and confident that we’ll meet, across the Senedd term, our commitment of 100,000 apprenticeships. Apprenticeships are quite a complex answer, and Vaughan will understand this, and perhaps I’ll ask Jo to try and come in to explain to the committee as to why it’s a complex answer. But, essentially, the start of an apprenticeship year and the financial year are two different points. So, there’s always a drop and a difference in the graph if you look at that. There was an injection of ESF funding during one of the years—I think it was 2023-24—so no doubt there was a higher start in that year. The Government is committed to apprenticeships and apprenticeships in Wales. We’re committed to 100,000 apprenticeships by the end of this Senedd term. That’s why we’ve invested £144 million in this budget and the previous budget—the most the Welsh Government has ever invested in the system. So, I would just urge caution across the particular data set, but we’re confident that we will meet our ambition of 100,000 apprenticeships. I don’t know if Jo might want to just explain that complex situation—
It might be helpful if you set out why you're confident of meeting the overall number. Then I'll come back with some of the various types of apprenticeships as well.

So, we're confident on hitting the 100,000 because we work very, very closely with Medr. So, in addition to the officially published statistics, we know before they're validated what the trends are going through. The point that the Minister's making about the volatility that we see between years is that, sometimes, if you have an injection of money in one year, it actually has an implication on the start, so you can increase the number of starts in one year, but that actually increases your commitment for future years—most apprenticeships last for more than one year, so you're going into a year with a commitment already made. So, if you boost money in one year, you actually reduce the number of starts, even with a steady base, and that has that volatility across it.
There are also—as you'll remember from a lot of the conversations around this—challenges where, if we can't provide long-term certainty of funding, then the apprentice providers will slow down and accelerate and we see that, and it's a really, really big challenge to try and smooth over some of the variations that we see. And we're working closely with Medr to try and find ways that stop the difference between financial year and academic years having that impact. But also, it shouldn’t be the case that being able to make short-term injections of money has that longer term impact, so it's about how we can help with that planning horizon.
So, in those figures there, we've seen big drops in foundation and higher apprenticeships, so there's something about the types of apprenticeships people are doing. And does that mean that there are fewer options available or is it about how providers are actually using the funds they have available at the time, and do we still expect them to have smoothed out the numbers about the quality of apprenticeships? Because I remember that you have this challenge: you could have lots more apprenticeship starts if you just did more foundation apprenticeships, but actually, that person completing that foundation apprenticeship, particularly after securing the money to go further, would need to do more before they'd go in to do what they could do in the workplace. So, there's a balance in terms of the type of apprenticeship. And I'm interested in the explanation for the fall in both foundation and higher apprenticeships and your level of confidence about having the right types of apprenticeships to meet the needs of learners and the economy over the next few years in the Government term. I don't know if the Minister or Jo is going to answer that.
I'm happy to certainly lead, and I don't know whether Jo might want to add at the end. I think you're right, Vaughan, in speaking about the importance of quality apprenticeships and the right type of apprenticeships—that's important for both, I think, the learner and the economy as well. But we're very clear in our ambitions for the apprenticeship system and particularly in the green economy, where apprenticeships will play an important role in our ambitions for the economy.
The points raised again on foundation and higher apprenticeships, I would urge some caution on that limited data set and perhaps look at a wider trend. But on the work on frameworks in particular and how learners are engaging to make sure it's right for learners and the economy, Medr are undertaking an apprenticeship framework review now—it's over a three-year period. So, I'm very clear that we want to have quality apprenticeships; we need to continue to invest in apprenticeships and we've invested, as I said, £144 million last year, and again we'll go on to do so this year, to meet our target of 100,000 apprenticeships. And Medr are taking that important work forward to make sure that, in certain areas of the economy, we have the right type of apprenticeship for both the learner and the economy, and that may then, once that review has taken place, enable us to understand further whether there are areas for concern within, particularly higher or foundation. At present, I'm not as concerned there. I'd like to see that work progress and take place, and as I say, I’m confident in the 100,000 apprenticeships, but quality apprenticeships at the end as well.
I think it would be interesting for us to have a note from yourselves and/or Medr about how things stand now, and then what your expectation is and what you can share with us in terms of future trends, because I understand there’s more real-time management data than is in the official statistics, to give us an idea about the level of confidence the Government has. I think that it will be quite important for us to understand the choices you’re making now and what that means both about the numbers in the target, but about meeting the needs of the economy and the point that the Cabinet Secretary and Vikki Howells make about the needs of the learner as well.
So, Vaughan is right; Medr, in essence, have real-time data on apprenticeship starts and that confidence boost. It’s why I feel confident in the figures that I’ve seen, and estimate a larger number to the official statistics, which run—I can’t remember the months behind, but it’s a series of months behind.
It’s quite a long way behind, isn’t it?
Yes, it’s behind the curve. What’s important, I think, is to make sure those figures are validated in the way in which they should be, and we’ll happily pick that up with Medr, and ask them to consider issuing to the committee for that reason.
Yes. And there is something about what providers are prepared to invest in as well, because I recognise they’ve got to invest in something, and then say, ‘We can carry this on for the whole programme’, which is a point I understand.
When it comes to junior apprenticeships, we’ve seen and heard in evidence, we’ve seen in visits, about the difference that the junior apprenticeship programme can make, especially for people in that 14-16 category—sometimes younger, actually—where school isn’t necessarily the right learning environment for them; it can make a real difference. So, it’s been trialled with five FE colleges, and I'm grateful that you’ve told us that you’re going to increase the budget by 50 per cent. And in looking at the scope with the expansion of the programme, I just want to understand how far you think that it can be expanded with the budget you’ve put in. Does that mean all colleges are still about expanding it out in stages? But it’s also about the survival of the programme as it is, because this is part-funded by the Government, part-funded by colleges who are doing something to support learners individually, and also part-funded through local authorities. So, in terms of having that arrangement with three decision makers, as it were, about your confidence that the current programme will survive, and I assume that there are conversations between officials in all three stakeholders, and then what the staging is for the further increase in the junior apprenticeships programme, which I think has been generally impressive, where we’ve seen it.
Okay, thank you. Junior apprenticeships sit with me. I’m a massive fan of the programme. I think the committee has been to see them in Cardiff and the Vale, and I’ve also been to Cardiff and the Vale, and I thought it was phenomenal, and I’m really keen that we have an offer of junior apprenticeships across Wales. As you’ve highlighted, we’ve increased the funding by 50 per cent. It’s a welcome increase in funding, but obviously, it’s still a relatively modest increase in funding. As you’ve highlighted, there are some colleges, and they’re in south Wales, that they are available in. So, we are looking at a staged approach, working with Medr to make sure that there is a more consistent offer in every part of Wales, really, and as we do that, we obviously have to consider things like Welsh medium as well, to make sure that the offer is fair right across Wales.
So, it’s a work in progress, but one that I’m really committed to, and you referred to the issues around the different parties involved, and I think that’s where the work that we’re doing on collaboration, with our school improvement partnership programme, the work that we’re doing with Medr as well is really important in making sure that we’re all on the same page about the importance of these opportunities. I’m really pleased that I understand that we’ve already now had some indications from Rhondda Cynon Taf that they are really keen to look at offering junior apprenticeships in Wales. So, I think there is enthusiasm for expanding the scheme, but I think it’s important as well to recognise that there are other things as well that colleges can contribute to pre-16 learners, and lots of them do already, and I’ll ask Vikki to say something about that.
Yes, absolutely, this is one of the things that I found on my visits to FE colleges, that every college is doing something in the 14-16 space. It might not be badged as a junior apprenticeship, so it might not have come to the top of the awareness of this committee and other Members who are interested in these things, but in north Wales, I visited a few weeks ago both Coleg Cambria and Grŵp Llanrillo Menai, who told me that they've got hundreds—each of them has got hundreds—of 14-16 learners engaged in different programmes there, where they will go back to the school for some qualifications, like maths and English GCSE, but are exposed to a range of vocational offers within that college environment.
I also visited Cardiff and Vale College to see their junior apprenticeship programme, and I was truly blown away by that. And just to bring that back to my own portfolio, I met some learners there who had been really disengaged from school, who had gone on the junior apprenticeship programme and had then progressed through other qualifications with the college, both A-levels and vocational qualifications, and were then applying to university for some really impressive courses in really impressive universities. So, there's a lot going on out there. Coleg y Cymoedd is doing something that they feel could almost be badged as a junior apprenticeship and working really well with RCT council. And I know that there is plenty of interest in taking that further.
So, I'm really interested in the points you make about the provision that already exists, some that is formally badged and organised as a junior apprenticeship and the ambition to have that as a more consistent offer, together with what's already taking place. And I appreciate that there will always be some impatience from this side of the table about, 'Why can't you do it now? Why can't it happen earlier?', but I think it would be helpful for us to understand, if not today, then to understand and potentially respond to the final report about what sort of timeline you'd be working to to understand the variety of the offer that does appear to be taking place already, what level of consistency you'd expect in that, and the formal role of the junior apprenticeship programme. Will it be that some might be rolled into it and become a junior apprenticeship programme?
And then the challenge is about funding, which will always come up. But, ultimately, this is a group of learners who, if they don't have an opportunity to undertake some of this it's really clear to us that they'd just be completely disengaged. I understand that the youth engagement framework helps to identify the learners who are at risk of not engaging. I also think that it's really important from our point of view that this isn't just seen as, 'This is what happens to naughty children', because lots of these have got real ability and it's about how that ability is captured and they can see the value in what they can do, as opposed to being told what they can't do. So, I'm really keen to see how that comes through in what the Government expects, and then your own road map to try to get there, rather than us saying, 'You must do all of this within six months', and that may mean nothing to anyone that's of value.
Yes, I think you make very important points. I think it's important to recognise that junior apprenticeships are part of the landscape that we offer for non-school provision. Obviously, we've also got children in education otherwise than at school provision, in pupil referral units, we've got local authority tuition services et cetera, and colleges do have robust selection processes in place to select the learners who are most likely to benefit from junior apprenticeships, and also the process is managed by schools, who are also well placed to identify appropriate learners. They won't be for everyone, and what we need to do is to make sure that the young people who could really benefit from them have got that access. And that is going to be a staged process, but I'm very happy to write to the committee with some further detail on the discussions that we're having to take this work forward.
I think that that would help us in understanding whether demand will outstrip supply, and if junior apprenticeships aren't the appropriate programme, what is the alternative if mainstream school education isn't the right provision for a young person.
Yes, I think it has to be set in the context of all of our reforms around school, doesn't it—what we're doing with the curriculum; the support that we're providing around mental health, because lots of the challenges come from mental health issues; the support that we put in through ALN. But I'm very happy to write to the committee with a further update on the work, because the work is being taken forward by Medr at the moment and it is being done on a staged basis. There is enthusiasm for it, and I'm very committed, as a Cabinet Secretary, to keep pace with that enthusiasm.
Thank you. That's very helpful.
Could I bring Cefin in quickly here, please?
Thank you. My question is very similar to Vaughan's last point. I think junior apprenticeships have a massive contribution to make, and I've been speaking to leaders of colleges who aren't a part of that pilot programme at the moment. So, if I can just push you a little bit further on that—I share your enthusiasm for the programme—can we say by the end of this Senedd term whether all colleges in Wales will be offered an opportunity to become part of the junior apprenticeship programme?
I think it would probably be more realistic to say that all parts of Wales would be offered, rather than all individual colleges. Ruth, did you want to comment on this?

Yes, and I suppose it's picking up on the Cabinet Secretary's earlier point about there being provision for 14 to 16-year-olds across every college, that there are different arrangements in place, really, that have been developed around what the local needs are as well, and around the relationships between the colleges and schools. So, I think we're quite confident that there's something available across Wales for that cohort, whether it is a junior apprenticeship or something different. It's certainly an ambition that we'd want to see something like a junior apprenticeship, more formalised, being made available, but we can come back to you on the timeline for that.
Okay.
Thank you. We now have some questions from Natasha, please.
Thanks very much, Chair. I want to start off by asking some questions about the vocational certificate of secondary education, if that's okay, and I'll move on to higher education. So, we've heard some concern that the new VCSEs may not be the right way for schools to engage with learners who want to, and need to, in fact, go down the vocational route, and they'll be ultimately rejected by colleges who, arguably, already have an effective vocational offer. So, what's your response to that?
Well, it's a new thing that we're doing. I think it's a good thing that we're doing. It's about giving genuine parity to vocational qualifications in Wales, making sure that all young people, whether it's an academic route or a vocational route, have got that recognition through being able to undertake a qualification. I recognise that there are some tensions in the system, concerns amongst colleges and schools.
Work is in the process of being developed, and it's important to remember we're not expecting it to be ready for first teaching until September 2027, so we've got time to get this right. We've already published the approval criteria and the high-level design principles for that, and awarding bodies are working on that now, working on developing the new qualifications. But as part of that work, we are expecting them to engage with learners, schools, colleges, employers and other partners. But the approval criteria for VCSEs are clear that they have to be designed to be reasonably deliverable by schools and other pre-16 settings. Of course, there are lots of level 1 and 2 qualifications, vocational qualifications, that are already delivered in schools.
I think it's a real positive, really, that we're going to have this parity of offer, but I do recognise that it's going to involve more working in partnership between schools and colleges, and that that will involve work for Qualifications Wales. It'll involve work for us as a Government as well, but I do think it's the right thing to do to give that recognition to the work of the young people who are more inclined to go down the vocational route.
Okay. So, just coming back to what you said, I appreciate you've mentioned that Qualifications Wales and yourself will need to work collaboratively to be able to produce and create something that's going to be viable going forward. How far along are you with progress, because 2027 is only literally a breath away for us?
As I said, the approval criteria, the high-level design principles have already been published. Awarding bodies will now be working on those proposals, and this is something that we do all the time. Obviously, we've been through this process with the new GCSEs that we're introducing. That process is carefully monitored. Everything that we do is in the best interests of learners, which is why we made the decision to delay the introduction of the double science, and made the changes to the history GCSE. So, it will be an iterative process, but I think it's important that it's one that we go through and that that's done in collaboration with schools and colleges. And I think if we've got a will to get there, then we will overcome those barriers.
Thank you very much. I'll move on to higher education enrolments. Universities Wales has told the committee that Wales has the lowest proportion of 18-year-olds applying for university in the UK—so, 32 per cent of Welsh 18-year-olds have applied for university, compared to 40.6 per cent UK-wide. They've said that, and I quote:
'The pipeline for higher education is declining'.
End quote. But Medr has gone on to say that there isn't conclusive data that there is a shift from one part of the education system to another. So, I'd like to know: is this drop in higher education enrolments a cause for concern?
Thank you. I'm very happy to be given the opportunity to dig into this in some depth, because there's data and then there's data, and, really, to see the overall picture for HE enrolments, we need to draw from a number of data sets. So, if I start with the UCAS data that you just identified there, you'd be correct to say that the latest available UCAS data shows that, as of the January deadline for 2025 entry, the 18-year-old application rate for Welsh domiciles was 32 per cent and that compares to 41.3 per cent for English domiciles. But the first thing I'd like to really underscore there is that that rate is only for 18-year-old, full-time undergraduates who apply through UCAS, so it only shows a part of the picture.
Another thing that I'd like to really emphasise is that any time we compare all-Wales data with all-England data, we are getting a deep distortion from the London figures, because London is such an outlier. So, if you look at the rate for London itself, that is 57.7 per cent for the 2025 entry. But I think it's important to look at Wales in comparison to the areas of England where we have the most demographic similarities. So, those would be the south-west, which comes in at 34.1 per cent and the north-east, which is exactly the same as us on 32 per cent. So, the participation difference there you can see is far, far less stark if we look at those areas where we have those strongest demographic similarities. But that's not to say that we don't want our rate to be higher.
I also think, personally, that it's really important to look beyond 18-year-old, full-time undergraduate participation. It's not a cliff edge whereby if you don't apply for university at 18 you're not going to go. And certainly, our stats from Wales show a really healthy picture if we look beyond the age of 18. So, the higher education initial participation measure is the one that I personally think is most important, and that provides an estimate of the probability that a 17-year-old Welsh person will participate in higher education by the age of 30. The latest measure published by Medr shows that this comes in at 54.6 per cent of all people in Wales, by the age of 30, and that's from 2023. So, if you look at that, it shows that more than half of our young people can be expected to enter higher education by the age of 30. Now, we can't compare that directly to England anymore, unfortunately, because they're using a slightly different measure. But in the last year that we were able to directly compare it to England, our rate was actually higher than theirs.
I also think it's important to look at census data as well. So, if you look at the last available census, which is 2021, there's information there on qualification levels, and that shows the difference in the proportion of people 16-plus who indicated that their highest level of qualification was level 4 or above to be very small. So, that comes in at 31.5 per cent for Wales, compared to 33.9 per cent for England. I think the difference there is likely to be explained by us in Wales having a much better participation in HE by part-time and mature students than in England. We've got a really, really good story to tell on this. So, in 2022-23, 36 per cent of all Welsh students were studying part-time, whereas that was just 23 per cent in England. And we know that Wales has got a higher proportion of mature students as well, so 66 per cent of Welsh students are aged 21 and above, compared with 59 per cent of English students, and 44 per cent of Welsh students are aged 25 and above, compared to 36 per cent of English students. I think that we can really attribute this in large part to the success of our part-time higher education student support package, which was introduced in 2018. There’s quite a staggering statistic there, if you look at the number of Welsh students at the Open University: that doubled in just a couple of years. Certainly, the Open University do believe that that was down to our part-time student support package.
There may be several understandable reasons why young people in Wales are taking a little bit more time to take a decision on what and where to study in HE in a way that’s right for them. So, yes, the Cabinet Secretary and I are absolutely monitoring the data for the 18-year-old entry rate into HE, and we really do want to see that increase, but I think it’s really important that we look at the wider evidence as well, which shows that overall participation in HE by Welsh people is much healthier than that single UCAS figure suggests, particularly with the part-time participation and more mature learners as well.
Okay, thank you for that. The committee is generally concerned about the scale of challenges facing the HE sector, I’m sure you all hear about it on a regular basis, and we have been told by some learners on some of the visits that we’ve done—. Look, brain drain is not a secret, we know that it happens, and according to HESA data, it stipulates that one in 10 English graduates end up staying in Wales, compared to a quarter of Welsh students who end up staying in England when they go over across the border to study for university. So, based on that, and having met with a lot of young students, and we sat down in front of them and asked how many planned to stay in Wales, and not a single one of them wanted to stay and go to university here. We can both nod our heads and say it was an actual fact that we witnessed ourselves. So, how are you going to respond to these concerns that Welsh learners just don’t want to stay in Wales and have a higher education here?
Okay, so, I would disagree with you saying that Welsh students don’t want to stay in Wales and have higher education here, because it’s really important that we look at the facts, the statistics: 68 per cent of Welsh-domiciled students study in universities in Wales. That’s a fact.
Going back to the start of your question’s point there, of course we are aware of the challenges facing the HE sector, and it’s important that we recognise that our universities operate in the UK in a global market, and these challenges are UK wide and they’re beyond UK wide as well. There have been challenges across the globe with HE participation and the financial sustainability of HE for a number of years.
So, we know, for example, that up to 90 UK universities have cut or are planning to cut costs in the current year due to instability and unsustainable provision in many departments and institutions. So, while Welsh students might be more privy to Welsh news, the fact is that this is an issue that’s UK wide. You only need to look at some of the recent news such as around the University of Dundee to see that. So, this is why it’s so important that I continue the work that I’m doing with UK Government to find UK-wide solutions to the problems.
But we should definitely judge student attitudes based on what they actually do. We haven’t seen a meaningful drop in the number of Welsh-domiciled applicants applying to providers in Wales. There was a slight decrease from 2024 to 2025, it was down from 14,750 in 2024 to 14,690 in 2025, which is a fall of 60 actual human beings. But those figures are still up from where we were a few years ago in 2019, and I’m certainly working really hard with vice-chancellors of all Welsh universities through my round-tables, my individual meetings with them, and I know that the chairs of universities are also involved in this work, to see what more we can do to encourage more Welsh students to undertake their studies in Wales.
Thank you. Chair, Cefin wants to ask something, then I have—
Can I have Joel come in first, please, as he indicated first?
Yes, of course.
Thank you, Chair, and thank you, Minister. I just wanted to come in with a quick question. I'm showing my age here, and maybe my ignorance of the matter, but when I applied for university, obviously there was UCAS, you had to give your five preferred options. Has much been done in terms of the options that students are putting in? Because, for example, the university that's near me is very good at attracting students via the clearing system, so those students who have failed to get into the universities that they wanted have then fallen back to that university—and it's not a disparaging remark about that university. But I'd be interested to know, because some of the anecdotal evidence that I've seen, I've heard, is that kids can't wait to leave—they want to go to, say, Bristol; they want to go to Durham and London and everywhere to study—and I just wanted to get an idea whether much has been done in terms of students in Wales who are studying in Wales, to know whether it's because it's their preferred choice or a fallback because they haven't had their preferred choice.
Okay. Just to repeat the stat, we've got 68 per cent of Welsh-domiciled learners studying at Welsh institutions. I don't think we've got the data on whether that's their first or second choice, but, yes, we can certainly find that out. I'm going through this as a parent at the moment, because my daughter's in year 13, so I'm privy to lots of conversations between her and her friends and the advice that she gets in school as well. And certainly drawing on my own experience as a former assistant head of sixth form, I think our young people have a plethora of opportunities available to them. The days are very different, Joel, from when you and I would have been maybe sat in the college or school library looking through hard copies of prospectuses. It's just so easy for young people now to find out about opportunities that are available to them, whether that's in Wales, the UK or indeed internationally as well. So, I'm confident that there's plenty of information and support for learners as they undertake those journeys.

It's probably just worth mentioning the Reaching Wider programme as well that our universities run, in terms of the access and outreach programmes that they do with schools. We know that that's really active at the moment still and has been really successful in drawing local students into our Welsh HEIs as well.
Yes, and I'll just say on that as well, some of the best examples that I've seen of that would be in Wrexham and Cardiff, where they don't just start engaging with young people at secondary school level, but at primary school level. I think that builds on what the Cab Sec was saying earlier about the need to engage with young people at the very earliest opportunities, to show them what opportunities are out there for them and to build aspiration.
Okay. Cefin, please.
I just want clarification on the 68 per cent you were referring to.
I presume that includes part-time studying.
Yes, it does indeed. Because I'm very much of the opinion that a part-time student is just as important as a full-time student, and they get the same degree at the end of it.
Yes, yes, I just wanted to clarify. So, the full-timers are about 60 per cent.
Yes, that's right.
Right, okay. Thanks.
Just a small supplementary question, if that's okay, and then we'll move on to the next person. But Welsh universities continue to be underfunded, we get that, particularly for areas of research and innovation, and it's a question that we were asked when we were speaking to some young people. So, how do you plan to scale up innovation through supporting commercialisation going forward for universities?
I would argue that our universities are not underfunded. If you look at the statistics, they are the third-highest funded universities according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. There’s plenty more information that we can send to you on that if you want it. And I'm sorry, I forgot the second part of your question.
It's all right. It was: how are you planning on supporting commercialisation in order to be able to scale up innovation here in Wales in the university and higher education sector?
Okay. I wouldn't term it ‘commercialisation’ in the way that you have there, but certainly with research and innovation, there are a number of activities going on in that area. Medr is doing some work to support our universities to be able to access more research funding. We've seen that that's been an area of some difficulty since we left the EU, because our universities were used to applying for funding in a particular way that was slightly different, perhaps, from the way that English universities were used to applying for funding. And we're doing—well, universities themselves, actually; I'll start with that. I think they're doing quite a lot of work now, working with things like their regional city deals or growth partnerships, and that has proved to be extremely fruitful. That's an area that we're looking to build on. I'll just see if Ruth has anything extra she wants to come in on there.

No, not on that. I just think the Wales innovation network is doing particularly active work in that area. We're also engaging with UK Government on the future of research funding to see how we can make sure that we can draw down as much for Wales as possible.
Thank you, Chair.
Thank you. A very brief question from Vaughan, please.
Obviously, I know there's only a relatively new innovation strategy—I was a Minister at the time—but I'm interested in the point that Ruth just made about access to UK-wide funds, where Wales hasn't done as well in the past. And I appreciate you do it now, but what you think that looks like and what the ambition is within the sector to do more in that area, but also on university spin-outs. So, I guess Oxbridge is the gold standard, but there was a recent Universities Wales press release celebrating an increase in the percentage of spin-outs, but we're starting at a lower base than some other parts of the UK.
So, I'm interested in not the access to funding, but actually the cultural shift, which is about having more spin-outs to get supported, and whether universities across Wales are able to set realistic plans and ambitions for what that should look like in the future, rather than celebrating a single year of increase that doesn't get us to where we'd all want to be overall in the sector. I think it's a challenge for the sector, not just for the Government. I don't think you've got a magic want to wave here. If you have, I'd like to know where it's been all this time. [Laughter.]
Yes, there's a few things to say there. So, firstly, there's that ongoing work with Medr, looking at how we can maybe, for want of a better phrase, have a hand-holding approach, really, to guide our universities through to become more successful for research funding bids. And I think the point you made about spin-outs is really important. It's an area that Universities Wales are increasingly focused on, and some of our universities—in particular, Swansea University—have a really good success rate around that. But what the sector tells me is that they want to showcase their work on spin-outs, but they're also really, really keen to get a broader understanding that it's not just about the spin-outs; it's about scale-ups as well. And I think that's very important because when you look at the history of the economy in Wales, we have had a problem, haven't we, with a lot of our home-grown businesses just not being able to scale up. This really shows how important our higher education institutions are to the regional economies in different areas in Wales.
Ruth might want to come in and say something—I'm not sure—but I will finish, though, by saying that our universities in Wales are not homogeneous and we have some universities for whom research is absolutely crucial to the work that they do, their aspirations and the funding that they require. But we've got, arguably, more institutions in Wales who say to me that, actually, research is not a priority for them; it's the bread-and-butter teaching and learning that is important to them. So, I think it's really vital that we see the diversity across the sector and that we support those universities for whom research and innovation is important now, and the ones for whom it might be important in the future.

If I can just add as well about the importance of the research that's going on in our further education sector as well. We've certainly seen that down in south-west Wales where there's been a really interesting response to the green skills economy and some of the technology that they're developing down there. So, just to make sure that that bit's not forgotten: there's really interesting work happening in FE.
I heard the same story from Grŵp Llandrillo Menai who wanted to be very clear that it isn't just research in HE; there's a lot in FE as well.

Yes, that's right.
Okay, thank you. We now have some questions from Cefin, please.
Diolch yn fawr. Dwi'n mynd i ofyn y cwestiynau yn y Gymraeg. Felly, y cwestiwn cyntaf yw ynglŷn â fforddiadwyedd. Rŷm ni'n gwybod bod cyfraddau'r lwfans cynhaliaeth addysg wedi codi yn ddiweddar, ond rŷm ni hefyd wedi clywed bod yna bwysau mawr ar y gronfa ariannol wrth gefn. Ac rŷm ni wedi clywed hefyd am bryderon fod rhai dysgwyr ond yn gwneud dewisiadau sydd yn fforddiadwy iddyn nhw. Nawr, byddwn i'n casáu meddwl bod hynny'n rhwystr iddyn nhw rhag mynd ymlaen i addysg ôl-16. I ba raddau ŷch chi'n credu bod hynny'n wir?
Thank you very much. I'm going to ask my questions in Welsh. So, the first question is about affordability. We know that education maintenance allowance rates have increased recently, but we've also heard that there is great pressure on the financial contingency fund. And we've also heard concerns that some learners only make choices that are affordable for them. Now, I would hate to think that that is a barrier for them to pursuing post-16 education. To what extent do you think that that is true?
Thank you, Cefin Campbell, for that question. I'm happy to take that. I've heard from colleges that pressures are increasing across the system, particularly in relation to the financial contingency fund. That's actually one of the reasons why we announced our decision to increase the threshold for EMA, to bring a further 3,500 learners into eligibility, because, of course, that frees up more money for the colleges from the FCF, which they can use to support their learners in the way they best see fit. Evidence from the EMA review suggests that EMA alleviates financial stress and anxiety and contributes to learners' well-being. In our recent review, 88 per cent of surveyed applicants to EMA reported that the prospect of receiving an EMA was important to their ability to continue in education. Only 3 per cent thought that it wasn't important. So, it proves the point you made there, that it is important that they have that financial support.
Within that survey, there was a small proportion of respondents who didn't qualify for EMA, and they reported that they couldn't afford to stay in education. But it's important to note that that review took place prior to the uplift in the household income threshold. So, I would very much hope and anticipate that those would be then the types of students who would fall into EMA now and would be staying on in college. Certainly, when I visited Coleg y Cymoedd Nantgarw, to talk to a huge selection of learners, actually, who were benefiting from EMA, or were just about to qualify, the stories that I heard, the very personal stories that I heard from them, tied in completely with that research there.
But the review did suggest that most learners were making their decision around whether to progress to further education in advance of hearing about the EMA available to them. So, I think that's why it's really important that we get into schools early with the information about EMA as well. So, we're developing a targeted campaign for year 11 learners, and increasing the awareness-raising initiatives at peak times during the year, and particularly during GCSE results week. We're also working across Government to integrate EMA signposting into our other existing campaign pages, such as 'Get help with school costs', 'Power Up', and the work that we're doing on the wider Welsh benefits.
But if I can just finish as well by talking about the FCF and the different ways in which colleges are using that, because I've seen some really innovative uses of it, and very passionate delivery on the ground as well, whereby—. I think, hand on heart, we could put as much money as possible into the FCF and colleges would still find ways of spending it, because they're so passionate about supporting the learners for whom they feel it's necessary. So, a lot of colleges use it to offset transport costs, which is really important. We know that that's a big issue for learners. They can do that by putting on their own transport, or by offering finance towards transport that the students take themselves.
I also saw a fantastic scheme at Neath Port Talbot College. So, the committee will be aware that, currently, learners who stay in sixth form who are eligible still receive free school meals, but that offer doesn't continue over to FE, which is one of the reasons why the FCF is in place. So, in Neath Port Talbot, each learner has their little ID card, and, if they were entitled to free school meals when they were in school, there's a little chip put in the back of that card, and they're able to use that to pay for food at lunchtime, not just in college but in a range of independent eateries in the community around there, which I just thought was such a fantastic leveller.
I've also seen some really innovative use of the FCF on my recent visit to Merthyr College, where it is actually used to fund a universal free breakfast offer for learners, which they said has really helped them with both attendance, punctuality and the ability to really engage and function in those early morning lessons, because the brain has been fed. So, I could go on and on; there are so many great ways in which the FCF is being used, and I'd really to place on record just how wonderful colleges are in knowing their own learners and the best way to spend that money.
Iawn. Diolch yn fawr. Os caf fi symud ymlaen at anghenion dysgu ychwanegol, rŷn ni wedi clywed gan yr NASUWT bod yna bryder ynglŷn â'r ddarpariaeth, ei bod hi'n ddarniog ac yn gymysg iawn, ac mae rhieni a gofalwyr, wrth gwrs, yn bryderus ynglŷn â hyn. Beth yw'ch asesiad chi o faint o newid sydd angen digwydd er mwyn cefnogi'n well pobl ag anghenion dysgu ychwanegol, fel eu bod nhw'n cael mynediad at addysg ôl-16?
Fine. Thank you very much. If I could move on now to additional learning needs, we've heard from the NASUWT that there is concern about the provision, that it is very mixed and haphazard, and parents and carers are very concerned about that. What is your assessment of the scale of change needed to better support people with additional learning needs in terms of accessing post-16 education?
I'll answer that one, as it's ALN. Just to say to the committee that, obviously, I do recognise the challenges here, and I've heard similar messages from parents and carers. But I've also heard of families that are getting really excellent support. I think it's important to remember as well that it is early days for ALN in FE. This current academic year is only the second year that young people are moving from compulsory education to further education under our new ALN system.
We've been working with Chris Denham, who was previously the post-16 ALN transformation lead, and he's now the post-16 ALN national implementation lead, and he's hosted by ColegauCymru. He's been doing some really excellent work, working in partnership with FEIs and local authorities. I met with Chris and ColegauCymru just last month, and he was able to give me his assessment of how the learner experience has improved in post-16, and he was really very positive about the work that was going on. He's been working tirelessly to prepare FEIs for implementation, to train staff, increase understanding, set up systems, and improve provision. He's also been working closely with local authorities. Part of that work has involved making a website available that provides really good, comprehensive information for learners. I feel that FEIs have prepared well for the implementation of the new system, and, indeed, Estyn did a report in October on ALN in FE, and they found that many colleges reported improved relationships with local authorities.
We've supported this work with additional funding—an extra £2.8 million over four years—to embed that partnership working. And, as the committee is aware, we also allocated an additional £10 million in the last financial year to Medr, who also have ALN as a priority, through the work that they're doing on their strategic plan. I'm also really pleased that now many local authorities have got a post-16 ALN lead in post, and there is much closer working now between local authorities and FE institutions.
The committee will be aware that the needs of some post-16 learners who have very complex needs wouldn't necessarily be met in mainstream provision, and you'll be aware that we've got a system whereby learners are placed in independent specialist post-16 placements, which I won't go into now unless the committee really wants me to. But just to assure the committee that Medr are also clear in their strategic plan on the work that they need to do on ALN to ensure that young people with ALN are supported to access the learning that is right for them, and, as Medr develop their strategic role, we're working closely with them to inform their operational plan, including on ALN.
Iawn. Diolch yn fawr. A'r cwestiwn olaf yn y rhan yma yw ar y ddarpariaeth addysg trwy gyfrwng y Gymraeg. Rŷn ni'n gwybod bod prinder opsiynau, yn arbennig o ran cyrsiau galwedigaethol, yn y sector ôl 16, ac mae'n debyg mai prinder staff sydd yn medru darparu trwy gyfrwng y Gymraeg yw un o'r prif resymau am hynny. Felly, gaf i ofyn yn syml iawn: beth ŷch chi'n ei wneud ynglŷn â hynny er mwyn delio â'r heriau penodol hynny?
Thank you very much for that. And the final question in this section is on Welsh-medium provision. We know that there are limited choices, particularly in terms of vocational courses, in the post-16 sector, and it appears that staffing shortages in terms of Welsh-medium provision are the main reason for that. Now, could I ask you very simply: what are you doing about that in order to deal with that specific challenge?
Thank you, Cefin. I'm happy to take that question. I think the first thing to say is that I think the picture is very much an improving one, but creating more opportunities for apprentices and for FE and HE learners to learn and train through Welsh is vitally important. So, the Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol has a specific role to work with universities, colleges and apprenticeship providers to increase capacity in the post-16 sector, and Welsh-medium post-16 provision supports learners to develop their skills to use Welsh in the workplace, and also in their daily lives.
So, the percentage of learning activities undertaken in Welsh or bilingually in FE institutions and in the work-based learning sector has really increased significantly since 2017-18, and it continues to see an upward trend, but we are clear across Government that more needs to be done and we want to do more to ensure that that progress is maintained and built upon further.
So, as a result of our investment in the coleg, over 20 per cent of activities in colleges and over 40 per cent of work-based learning activities now involve an element of Welsh or bilingual delivery modules, and courses can now be studied through the medium of Welsh across most of the main subject groups in universities, and new provision has been introduced in really important fields, I think, such as dentistry and veterinary science. And on my recent visit to Aberystwyth, they were explaining to me there just how important that is to the local farming community to have vets who are trained and able to communicate through the Welsh language; it's just a real game changer there regionally. So, the coleg has also ensured an increase in the number of teaching staff contracted to teach in Welsh as well. So, whilst the data shows that more learners in the post-16 sector are studying at least partly in Welsh, there's more ground to be gained, and the additional funding that we've allocated for 2025-26 will support the coleg to do more.
If I can also touch on Estyn's thematic report as well, I welcome that, the report on increasing the use of Welsh language in the post-16 sectors. And—. I'm just trying to think if there's anything else there that I haven't said already. Oh, we've tasked the coleg, together with the National Centre for Learning Welsh, with developing an action plan to take forward the recommendations in that report, and we'll work with the coleg, the national centre, Medr and the provider network to take forward those recommendations.
We also have a strategic priority for Medr to develop a plan to increase and improve the provision and promotion of Welsh-medium education and assessment in the whole of the tertiary system, and Medr's strategic plan also includes a commitment, as well, to better understand the Welsh-language skills of the tertiary education workforce; it's really important that we map those so that we can improve the recruitment and retention of Welsh-speaking staff, and to promote more professional learning so that more staff are confident, as well, to teach through the medium of Welsh.
And there's a lot of information that—. I can see that time is really ticking away, so maybe it would be best if I wrote you and sent you a note on the different scholarships that are available to learners to study through the medium of Welsh, because there's comprehensive information I have there that I think would be of interest to the committee.
Yes, please.
That would be useful, because what I really want to know is who is driving this kind of recruitment campaign to get more teachers into colleges, schools et cetera? Is it Welsh Government? Is it Medr? Is it the Coleg Cymraeg Cenedlaethol? It's unclear to me who is actually responsible for driving that forward. So, if you could maybe send a note on that—
Absolutely. Will do.
—it would be useful. Diolch.
Thank you. Thank you. We have now another question from Natasha, please.
Thank you. I'm glad you touched upon this issue before. It's one of interest to all of us, and that's transport. It's one of the biggest barriers that we've found in this committee and beyond. Learners particularly who are trying to access post-16 education and training are finding this a big hurdle. So, because of the financial pressures that seem to be looming on local authorities, I'd like to know, from your perspective, from your experience, from the dealings that you all have, are you actively monitoring the impact this is having on learner choices, going forward?
Okay, shall I take that, then, if it's referring to post-16 education and training? I think that the first thing I want to say is that there are some fantastic examples of good practice out there in the FE sector. I mentioned before colleges using the FCF to subsidise learner transport. There's huge variety of provision across Wales. Some colleges completely fund learner transport, putting on private transport for them. Others provide funding for learners to access public transport. And, in some areas, we've got the local authority funding that transport or part funding, as well. So, there are lots of examples of good practice out there, but we absolutely recognise that there's a lot more to do as well. So, addressing the cost for learners travelling to schools, colleges and universities is a cross-Government effort. So, we're working closely with the Cabinet Secretary for Transport and North Wales and other Cabinet colleagues to support all our learners. Officials are also working with Medr to better understand that quite complex post-16 provision that I alluded to there. We want to know exactly which colleges are providing what and how that funding pot is made up, because there's increasing pressure on those funding streams and it's important that we've got accurate information so that we can map where the vulnerabilities are there.
So, I'm sure that the committee will also be aware that the Cabinet Secretary for Transport and North Wales is hosting a learner travel summit on 9 May. I and the Cabinet Secretary are looking forward to attending that. It's going to be bringing together key decision makers and delivery partners for the first time. We expect the summit to acknowledge the challenges that we're all aware of, but also, and arguably more importantly, to look at the opportunities to improve understanding between our partners, identify areas for collaboration, share good practice, and hopefully we can use innovative tools to drive improvement in this area, especially within the context of a franchised bus network, which we know is coming down the road—pardon the pun. And I know that party spokespeople have been invited to attend as well, so I hope that the relevant spokespeople will be able to attend so that we can have a productive and collaborative conversation on the ways forward.
Excellent. Thank you. The pilot £1 bus fare scheme has been a welcome development for many young people, but ColegauCymru—I hope I pronounced that right; my apologies there—told us last week that lots of learners actually depend on trains to get to college or even to school. So, how much of an impact do you anticipate the £1 pilot to actually have on young people’s learning destinations, post 16, if their main route to get there is, indeed, on a train?
Okay. Yes, I think that's a fair question. I'll start by saying that, personally, I'm proud the Welsh Government is investing £15 million in an improved offer for all 16 to 21-year-olds. So, we've got those single journeys on public buses capped at £1, with multiple journeys—as many as you want in one day—capped at £3. I think that's going to be a real game changer and remove a barrier to participation in education and training for a lot of young people. So, it's a pilot, as we know. It's going to run for a year, starting in September, and the most important thing about a pilot is how you evaluate it, isn't it, for its impact and its effectiveness. And that will help us make informed decisions then about the future potential of the scheme.
We know that this scheme isn't trying to address all of the transport challenges that exist. We know that public service bus provision in some rural areas in particular is not as good as we would like, and certainly I know that that has an impact on FE learners in those areas. So, that's one of the reasons why we've introduced the bus Bill, which will give us control of the bus network and control of that significant subsidy that we provide to the industry. I'd also like to say that we recognise that some colleges are paying significant costs in relation to transport, and we're looking to see what we can do to help there.
On rail travel, I think that’s definitely the reality for students, perhaps, in the most urbanised areas of Wales, travelling by train to their place of learning or training. And there’s a huge range, actually, of railcards available to young people. I was exploring this with my daughter the other day, and the biggest problem was trying to work through the many on offer to see which was best for her. And the student railcard, for example, provides a third off standard fares, and Transport for Wales is really looking to deliver more value for money as well through products such as pay-as-you-go, multiflex, weekly, monthly and advanced tickets. So, there’s a range of different options out there, which can be quite challenging to navigate, but they are there for that reason.
I, actually, met with the National Union of Students Cymru this week, and I was asking them about their view on student transport ahead of the summit. And they said to me that the biggest issue that had been raised with them previously wasn’t so much the cost of rail travel, but the reliability of services. I think that that’s something that we have seen improving recently, and expect to see improve significantly with the investment in £800 million-worth of brand-new trains, which are much more accessible, comfortable and more reliable for everyone as well.
So, a long answer, but, in short, we know there is more to do, and we’re looking forward to exploring that with a range of stakeholders.
Thank you. Now a question from Joel, please.
Thank you, Chair. Thanks ever so much for coming in this morning. I was hoping that I could just ask some questions regarding 'What Shapes Pathways and Transitions?', the February 2025 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development report that you’ve had commissioned. I’ve been reading it, and some of the points in it don’t make for very good reading. If I can just highlight some of the stuff it’s highlighted: Wales has fewer levers to influence the design of learners' programmes; concern over equitable access to pathways; disjointed learning experience from age 14 onwards; post-16 enrolment in education falls below the average across the OECD; at 15, young people miss school at some of the highest rates across the OECD. Also, they’ve highlighted that there is no measure of completion. So, for students studying for qualifications, they’re actually below level 3, then, when they reach 18, which goes against your desire to actually increase the numbers there. I just wanted to get your opinion on that. Are these sentiments that you recognise, or do you think they’re being unfair or unduly harsh? Basically, what’s your response to it?
Thanks, Joel. The report that you referred to is a report that we commissioned with the OECD, and the report that’s been published is the culmination of a two-year piece of work. That’s involved not just research, but also peer learning discussions with other nations. We’ve got a really good relationship with the OECD. It’s one that I really value. I think it’s really important to learn from other countries.
As you highlighted, the report has raised a number of issues that are really helpful for us as a Government to understand. That’s why we commissioned the work in the first place. We’ve already taken action in terms of the findings. So, the work that I’ve referred to around the 14-16 learner entitlement has come through that OECD piece of work. So, we’re already taking action on some of the issues that were raised, but there is more work to do. And that’s why I issued the written statement last week in relation to the report, saying that we’re now going to work with partners to refresh the guidance on local curricula for 16 to 19-year-old students. That’s a very important piece of work, working in partnership. And what we want to do is explore with partners how the wider 16-19 learning experience can be enhanced for all learners, and that will cover looking at things like leaving certificates.
We’ve got a very holistic curriculum now, pre 16, and we need to make sure that we carry those principles into our post-16 education system. The report also highlighted the fact that we've got quite a bit of high-stakes accountability in terms of GCSEs and A-levels, but we want to look at ways where we can recognise the wider learning that young people are undertaking, which is why we're looking at things like leaver certificates. We are holding a stakeholder seminar in May, at which the OECD are going to present the findings of their report, and then we'll also be able to have a conversation about our strategic approaches to post-16 learning.
I think that it's also important to recognise that we have got other good practice in the system that responds to the kind of issues raised by the OECD. We've got our advanced skills baccalaureate Wales, which does give learners an opportunity to show those wider skills and competencies. I was at the Torfaen Learning Zone a few weeks ago in my MS capacity, and they were showing me there advanced skills baccalaureate work and, my goodness, I was amazed. I couldn't have imagined myself being able to do that kind of work at their age. So, we recognise that the report is an important contribution, and we're really serious about learning the lessons from it.
You mentioned attendance as well. Obviously, attendance has been identified as a priority for us as a Government. We are particularly concerned about attendance in years 10 and 11, where we find that the attendance drops off even more, and that's really concerning from a transitions point of view. That's why, as a Government, we announced that £8.8 million extra to improve attendance in Wales, with a really strong focus on family engagement officers tackling those complex barriers that prevent children and young people coming to school, but also looking at all sorts of enrichment activities as well to try and make sure that kids do really want to come to school. The youth service is also part of that solution.
So, I welcome the report. I am always happy for someone to shine a light on things that we could be doing better, and I'm really keen to embrace this opportunity to improve our post-16 pathways.
Perfect. Thank you. Thank you, Cabinet Secretary.

Just to add as well, in terms of those pathways on 16-19, we are working on that at pace now. So, we'll be engaging with stakeholders throughout the spring, consulting on that formally in the autumn, and then publishing by March next year. So, we will have that updated guidance ready.
Thank you. Thank you for the clarification. Another thing I wanted to chat to you about is that, at the start, we talked about Careers Wales, and one of the things that keeps getting brought back to us is that the collection of post-16 destination data isn't as robust as some would like. There's also concern that there is unreliability there, really. I just wanted to get an idea from you, really, if that, again, is something that you recognise. Could they do better in terms of that collection of data?
Thank you, Joel. I'm happy to take that question. Actually, no, it's probably better with Jack, isn't it? Sorry.
I'll come in after Jack.
Yes, I'm happy to lead on this. Joel asked about the destination data from Careers Wales and its robustness. I think that the data is robust in what Careers Wales collect. It goes through all of the checks that you would expect data of such a kind to go through. What's important, I think, to recognise is what the data actually is. So, it's snapshot data. It's taken on 31 October, if I've got that correct, Chair, each year, and it is a snapshot of where learners are at that point. There is a role for how we use data and look at trends more generally. I think, as to the concerns that the committee have heard about the robustness of the Careers Wales data, I don't share those concerns at all. I think that it goes through all of the relevant checks that you would expect, and I'm happy with what the data is. More detail on how we use data differently is perhaps a wider point for the education colleagues. It's an important piece of data that we recognise.
You mentioned there identifying trends. Is that data good at doing that, but then also allowing providers to work out what they should be providing?
I think it's part of that journey, and perhaps the Cab Sec might want to come in, but it's an important part of that. So, it tells you where the student, or previous student, is at that point on 31 October each year—it doesn't go beyond that; it's very much a snapshot against that. It's backed against all of the quality checks that you would expect as well, which is an important point. But I think your wider point, Joel, on trends plays a part in the process, but I'm sure that the Cab Sec might want to add to that.
I'm very passionate about data. I never thought I'd find myself saying that, but I am. But data is only as good as what you do with that data, and that's the really important point, isn't it? Jack has referred to the Careers Wales data. We're also, as I said to the committee, developing the learner entitlement indicators framework. That will provide data on post-16 and transition planning in a school; it'll provide information on the destinations of year 11 learners, and also on learners with no qualifications.
We've talked about the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development—they provided a very helpful country note on the careers service. I don't know if that's been shared by the committee, but it is genuinely very interesting. So, I think we've got lots of opportunities to work with organisations like the OECD to make sure that we make really good use of that data to try and improve things for children and young people.
And just finally to say that the youth progression framework—I was blown away by how much information they had individually on their young people in their particular areas. And the great thing about that is that it's not just numbers on a page—they are following up every single one of those young people to try and make sure that we hold on to them in the system in one way or another.
Perfect, thank you. Just another question, if I can, on data: in your written evidence, under data and evidence, you mentioned the importance of high-quality and reliable data in understanding participation trends and tackling the challenges and opportunities, and, as such, you've recognised this and developed a participation in tertiary education evidence plan to strengthen the evidence base. I just wondered if you can go into a little bit more detail about how that would strengthen the base.
I can take this. Now is my opportunity to talk about it. I think it's fair to say that we recognise that more needs to be done with existing data to understand those trends in post-16 participation. That's why we're taking several actions around this. To try to understand a bit more about those trends in participation and the evidence for what works in increasing tertiary participation, we developed an evidence plan. As part of that plan, we've prioritised data linkage, so combining different education data sets to help identify trends and patterns that can't be seen when you look at individual data sets in isolation. We're confident that that approach will provide a more comprehensive and holistic view of participation.
And then, delivering against the participation evidence plan, in February, Medr published a statistical analysis of learner progression from year 11 into tertiary education. That covered year 11 cohorts from 2016-17 through to January 2025, and that included breakdowns by learner characteristics and tertiary provision type. That publication provides a really up-to-date understanding, I would say, of participation and pathways into tertiary education.
We do recognise, though, that there are a number of existing evidence gaps, and we're looking at ways to address these. I think that, probably, the most important work under my portfolio in this area is the evaluation of the Diamond reforms. We published the Diamond evaluation plan in December, and interim findings are anticipated towards the end of this year and running into 2026. But as well as evaluating the Diamond package, those findings will also inform current policy issues such as the pattern of change in participation in HE by Welsh domiciled students. You can see from my previous answers I think it’s really important that we dig down into that and look at part-time and mature learners and so on. All of that richness of data will help provide learning that could inform a policy review in the medium term.
In addition to looking at administrative data, we also recognise the importance of hearing directly from learners about the experiences, so we carried out and published a survey of learners in FE to explore their experiences of post-16 education following the COVID pandemic. Also in HE, the student income and expenditure survey was published in December of last year, and that provides a snapshot of Welsh domiciled undergraduate students’ financial positions from April 2021 to June 2022. Then the Diamond evaluation will also contain learner voice research. I hope that shows you that we’re doing quite a range of different things there.
Do I have time for one more?
If it’s very brief, because I’d like Cefin to ask his final question.
Yes, it’s just one quick question. If you are looking at the evidence, it’s showing that the proportion of those 16 to 18-year-olds that are not in education, employment or training is falling, and I just wanted to get an idea of what specific policies the Welsh Government have done that you think have contributed to that fall, and if you think that trend is going to continue.
Thanks, Joel, and I'm grateful for the opportunity. Chair, last night in preparation for today—. I've spoken about the young person’s guarantee already, but during my revision for the committee yesterday, I decided to go back and look at the ambitions of the young person’s guarantee. A member of this committee, when he was the Minister for the Economy, said the young person’s guarantee is the core of our effort to help young people get the best possible start in the world of work, we need to ensure young people have the skills and the experience that they need for the jobs of today and the future, and this is a key element of our strategy to prevent youth unemployment. That young person’s guarantee since the introduction has supported over 48,000 young people agend 16 to 24, so in the bracket that Joel James has described to the committee, and I think that's one of the direct interventions that has made a difference to the downward trend in NEETs. We're very proud of the young person’s guarantee, and we'll go on supporting it in that way, and I'm confident we will continue to see this reflected in the figures. But it's not just that intervention, as the Cabinet Secretary and the Minister have already outlined, I think, today, on the frameworks, the youth framework, and some other interventions that we're making, but I think a flagship programme, Jobs Growth Wales, and the young person’s guarantee, is something to be commended by the committee.
Thank you. Cefin, please. If you could ask the final question.
Mae ColegauCymru am weld strategaeth addysg a hyfforddiant galwedigaethol cenedlaethol, ac mae’n rhywbeth ŷch chi wedi sôn amdano wrth gomisiynu’r adolygiad o’r sector o dan gadeiryddiaeth Sharron Lusher. A ydych chi yn ymrwymo i greu strategaeth addysg a galwedigaethol ar gyfer Cymru?
Thank you. CollegesWales wants to see a national vocational education and training strategy for Wales, and it's something that you've mentioned in commissioning the review of the sector that was chaired by Sharron Lusher. Are you committing to creating such a strategy for Wales?
I'll take that. Taking forward the recommendations of both the review of vocational qualifications and the report into transitions into employment is and remains a key priority for us across Government, and those two reports really straddle all three of our portfolios. The two reports are inextricably linked, and they're going to be delivered in tandem with the development of the 16-to-19 curriculum guidance that we've already referred to today. Many of the qualification-specific recommendations in the vocational qualifications review are already under way, and are being progressed by Qualifications Wales in partnership with the Welsh Government, so I'll give a few examples of those, if I may.
The expansion of sector review stakeholder group membership as detailed in recommendation 6 is already under way. The scrutiny of sector review findings at board level as detailed in recommendation 7 is under way, and, of course, also from recommendation 22, the development of VCSEs, which we've explored in some detail here this morning. Qualifications Wales has also published a progress report in September of last year on their targeted approach for increasing the number of Welsh-medium qualifications available, and that's in response to recommendations 19 and 20.
In terms of delivering these recommendations overall, what I would say is it's a really complex piece of work, because it cuts across a range of portfolios. Medr, as you know, was established just in August last year, and it has got a really critical role to play here. That's why we're taking the time to develop our delivery plans and began engagement with key stakeholders on all of that last November.
Going forward, we're continuing to engage with our key strategic stakeholders, so they would be Medr, Qualifications Wales, Careers Wales, and, in particular, ColegauCymru as well, over the coming weeks and months. The potential for a vocational education and training strategy that you referenced there, Cefin, will form part of those discussions. Wider stakeholder engagement will follow through spring and early summer. The focus in this year, 2025, is really for us to identify the short, medium and long-term actions to enable that collaborative delivery of the recommendations, some of which, I'll be frank, will need a longer time frame to deliver.
Our aim in implementing the recommendations is to really align with the wider participation agenda, including in relation to the 16-to-19 local curricula, our work with Medr, Quals Wales, ColegauCymru, Careers Wales, UK Government and other stakeholders as well on skills priority. Really, the aim is to ensure clearer and more accessible pathways, with all learners being supported to access the learning that's best for them as individuals.
Can I just follow up on that, very quickly? We've been told by many stakeholders that there is a need for a comprehensive integrated vocational education training programme, and we've heard that using terms like 'academic studies' and 'vocational' is unhelpful, it creates an unnecessary barrier to that integration that we need. I'm just wondering what your views are on this, and whether we could move quicker towards having that integrated, comprehensive vocational and education strategy.
The terms that you've identified there are really key, and it goes back to what the Cab Sec was talking about earlier with cultural change. Cultural change is really hard to deliver, but it's so important. I'll give you one example. I was listening to a Welsh political programme a few weeks ago where a leading academic was commenting on HE in Wales, and said that students here can do degree apprenticeships or 'proper degrees'. There's a lot of work to do to effect cultural change across the sector and across academics and across those who comment on it. I think there was another part to your question, Cefin, but you might need to repeat that if there was.
It was about how quickly we can move towards achieving that goal of an integrated, comprehensive strategy for education and vocational training.
It's definitely a long-term ambition. I wonder, Ruth, if there's anything else you wanted to say.

We're working on the timelines at the moment, and we should have that ready in the next couple of weeks, so we'd be happy to provide committee, if Ministers and Cab Sec are happy with that, just with what the timeline would look like in terms of developing that.
Yes, please.
Things like the new VCSEs help with that, don't they, because you've got a qualification that provides parity for young people at that age.
Yes, to get rid of those distinctions. Okay, good. Diolch.
I'm so sorry, we've run a little bit over this morning. We really appreciate your time. I'd like to thank the Cabinet Secretary, Ministers and their officials for joining us this morning. We do really appreciate your time. You'll be sent a transcript for checking in due course. Thank you.
I'll now move on to item 4, which is papers to note. We have eight papers to note today, the full details of which are set out in the agenda and in the paper pack. Are Members content to note the papers together? Yes, thank you.
Cynnig:
bod y pwyllgor yn penderfynu gwahardd y cyhoedd o weddill y cyfarfod ac ar gyfer y cyfarfod cyfan ar 8, 14 a 21 Mai yn unol â Rheol Sefydlog 17.42(ix).
Motion:
that the committee resolves to exclude the public from the remainder of the meeting and for the whole of the meeting on 8, 14 and 21 May in accordance with Standing Order 17.42(ix).
Cynigiwyd y cynnig.
Motion moved.
Moving on to item 5, I propose in accordance with Standing Order 17.42(ix) that the committee resolves to meet in private for the remainder of today's meeting and for the whole of the meetings on 8, 14 and 21 May. Are Members content? We'll now proceed in private.
Derbyniwyd y cynnig.
Daeth rhan gyhoeddus y cyfarfod i ben am 11:35.
Motion agreed.
The public part of the meeting ended at 11:35.